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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #850 on: August 13, 2023, 06:00:50 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 12th, 2023:
       5,704,360 km2, a drop of -87,923 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #851 on: August 13, 2023, 08:08:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,704,360 KM2 as at 12-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 88k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,419 k, which is 216 k, 2.5% less than the 10 year average of 8,636 k.

- Extent is 11th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  225 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  82 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  520 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  791 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  284 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  911 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  182 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 87.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 33 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.50 million km2, 1.32 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 10th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #852 on: August 13, 2023, 02:40:02 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,784,993 KM2 as at 12-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 18k, 21 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,148 k, which is 29 k, 0.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,119 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  444 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  372 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  166 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  675 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  76 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 91.8% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 29 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.97 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #853 on: August 13, 2023, 07:17:53 PM »
I added the monthly extent value for July 2023 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2023) NSIDC July extent is now 9.06 M km². July 2023 had an average extent of 8.18 M km², which is 0.88 M km² below that long-term average.
This month's value was again above the long-term linear trend line. The difference of the actual month from that trend line is +0.30 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this July should have been at 7.88 M km²).

The slope of the long-term linear trend line remained unchanged (-0.0524).

See attached graph. Click to enlarge it.
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #854 on: August 14, 2023, 06:21:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 13th, 2023:
       5,576,832 km2, a century break drop of -127,528 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 14, 2023, 06:42:33 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #855 on: August 14, 2023, 07:34:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,576,832 KM2 as at 13-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 128k, 60 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,547 k, which is 157 k, 1.8% less than the 10 year average of 8,703 k.

- Extent is 10th lowest in the 44 year satellite record.

- Extent is  265 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  18 k MORE than 2021,
- Extent is  456 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  757 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  193 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  863 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  128 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 88.4% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 32 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.44 million km2, 1.26 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #856 on: August 14, 2023, 06:35:24 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,744,870 KM2 as at 13-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 40k, 1 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,188 k, which is 28 k, 0.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,161 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  441 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  402 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  137 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  656 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  80 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 92.2% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 28 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.97 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #857 on: August 15, 2023, 06:00:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2023:
       5,458,720 km2, a century break drop of -118,112 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 15, 2023, 06:13:25 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #858 on: August 15, 2023, 09:39:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,458,720 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 118k, 64 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,665 k, which is 92 k, 1.1% less than the 10 year average of 8,757 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  335 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  70 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  419 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  690 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  124 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  808 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  68 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.0% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 31 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.37 million km2, 1.19 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #859 on: August 15, 2023, 02:41:53 PM »
NSIDC is offline, just when the one-day graph from Nico Sun says things are getting interesting

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #860 on: August 15, 2023, 06:01:55 PM »
NSIDC returns to the www, and the data on this day continues the Arctic sea ice area journey to a respectable finish.

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,672,383 KM2 as at 14-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 72k, 30 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,261 k, which is 58 k, 0.6% more than the 10 year average of 9,203 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  456 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  402 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  91 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  602 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  120 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 92.7% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 27 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.94 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 5th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #861 on: August 16, 2023, 06:12:41 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 15th, 2023:
       5,371,054 km2, a drop of -87,666 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 16, 2023, 06:24:04 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #862 on: August 16, 2023, 07:58:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,371,054 KM2 as at 15-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 88k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,752 k, which is 58 k, 0.7% less than the 10 year average of 8,811 k.

- Extent is 9th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  393 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  133 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  408 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  636 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  88 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  822 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  42 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 89.5% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 30 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.34 million km2, 1.16 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #863 on: August 16, 2023, 09:38:59 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,603,349 KM2 as at 15-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 69k, 32 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,330 k, which is 90 k, 1.0% more than the 10 year average of 9,240 k.

- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  474 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  397 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  81 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  560 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  154 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.0% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 26 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.91 million km2, 0.66 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #864 on: August 17, 2023, 05:43:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 16th, 2023:

       I am not having access to ADS page. I will try in 30 minutes.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

It is time for me to go to bed. I hope someone else can make the post.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2023, 07:33:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Stephan

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #865 on: August 17, 2023, 06:53:56 AM »
JAXA ADS site still does not show any data...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #866 on: August 17, 2023, 05:38:12 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,542,439 KM2 as at 16-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 61k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,391 k, which is 111 k, 1.2% more than the 10 year average of 9,279 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  510 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  406 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  104 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  532 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  181 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 25 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.89 million km2, 0.64 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #867 on: August 18, 2023, 05:37:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 16th, 2023:
       5,317,269  km2, a drop of -53,785 km2.

August 17th, 2023:
       5,230,369 km2, a drop of -86,900 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 18, 2023, 05:53:06 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #868 on: August 18, 2023, 02:24:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,230,369 KM2 as at 17-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 87k, 43 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,893 k, which is 32 k, 0.4% less than the 10 year average of 8,926 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  479 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  201 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  449 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  596 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  130 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  854 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  25 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 90.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 28 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.31 million km2, 1.13 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #869 on: August 18, 2023, 11:03:06 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,466,191 KM2 as at 17-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 76k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,467 k, which is 146 k, 1.6% more than the 10 year average of 9,321 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  572 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  375 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  102 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  500 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  214 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.8% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 24 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.85 million km2, 0.61 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #870 on: August 18, 2023, 11:19:59 PM »
2nd place is still in play , 1st very unlikely , except it is 2023 :)

 (oo)ps . Forgetting gero leaves 2019 off his graph and 2020 isn't highlighted in the table . 4th may be the best this year can do . But .. it's still 2023 and the ice is still melting .
« Last Edit: August 19, 2023, 02:38:16 PM by be cause »
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Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #871 on: August 19, 2023, 06:11:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 18th, 2023:
       5,168,686 km2, a drop of -61,683 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 19, 2023, 06:24:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #872 on: August 19, 2023, 10:38:45 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,168,686 KM2 as at 18-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 62k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,955 k, which is 20 k, 0.2% less than the 10 year average of 8,975 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  502 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  261 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  489 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  605 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  153 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  862 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  17 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 91.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 27 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.30 million km2, 1.12 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #873 on: August 19, 2023, 01:26:57 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,388,104 KM2 as at 18-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 78k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,545 k, which is 180 k, 1.9% more than the 10 year average of 9,365 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  630 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  327 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  105 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  458 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  242 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.3% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 23 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.82 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #874 on: August 20, 2023, 06:12:45 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 19th, 2023:
       5,182,224 km2, a drop of -42,643 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 20, 2023, 06:26:06 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #875 on: August 20, 2023, 08:44:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,126,043 KM2 as at 19-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 43k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 8,998 k, which is 32 k, 0.4% less than the 10 year average of 9,029 k.

- Extent is 8th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  474 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  261 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  567 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  591 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  155 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  900 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  22 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 91.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 26 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.31 million km2, 1.13 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #876 on: August 20, 2023, 03:16:26 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,347,673 KM2 as at 19-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 40k, 0 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,586 k, which is 181 k, 1.9% more than the 10 year average of 9,405 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  669 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  314 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  132 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  462 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  236 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 94.7% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 22 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.82 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #877 on: August 20, 2023, 03:21:13 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): a bit more

High Arctic sea ice area losses a bit lower but still above average for the time of year.

Peripheral Seas sea ice area losses had stalled and on this day a 5k gain - mostly in the Greenland Sea (a bit of Fram Export?)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #878 on: August 20, 2023, 03:32:00 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average): Some graphs

CAA daily sea ice area is lowest on this day in the 45 year for the 13th time this year.

Beaufort Sea Ice is 3rd lowest on thuis day, having been 3rd or 4th lowest every day this momth.

The ESS is 3rd lowest, up from 6th lowest in early August

It's all about the left side of the High Arctic losing sea ice this year while ice is being pushed out into the Barents and the Greenland Seas?
« Last Edit: August 20, 2023, 06:47:55 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #879 on: August 20, 2023, 05:43:48 PM »
Analysis of NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Area "relative area wise" Aug 01- Aug 19.

The laggard is
CAB   -10% (as to be expected)
Slow melting in
LAP   -19%  (→ where is the famous Laptev bite this year?)
Medium melt rates in
GRØ  -34%  (a bit out of comparison due to large inflow via Fram)
KAR  -36%
HUD  -39%
BAF   -41%
BEAU -43%
Fast melting occurred in
CHUK -52%
CAA   -54%
The leader is
ESS    -74%

Chukchi Sea had one day of > 10% daily loss, ESS counted five days of a loss of > 10%/day.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #880 on: August 21, 2023, 05:58:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 20th, 2023:
       5,054,266 km2, a drop of -71,777 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #881 on: August 21, 2023, 08:26:28 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,054,266 KM2 as at 20-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 72k, 22 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,069 k, which is 10 k, 0.1% less than the 10 year average of 9,080 k.

- Extent is 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  493 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  290 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  569 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  546 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  131 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  911 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  3 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 92.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 25 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.29 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 8th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom Stedman

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #882 on: August 21, 2023, 02:27:48 PM »
JAXA extent level with the 2009 minimum today, with roughly 3 more weeks extent declines to go.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #883 on: August 21, 2023, 07:15:07 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,323,088 KM2 as at 20-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 25k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,610 k, which is 170 k, 1.8% more than the 10 year average of 9,440 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  691 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  320 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  149 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  471 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  222 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.0% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 21 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.83 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #884 on: August 22, 2023, 06:10:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 21st, 2023:
       4,987,517 km2, a drop of -66,749 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #885 on: August 22, 2023, 07:41:25 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,987,517 KM2 as at 21-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 67k, 21 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,136 k, which is 11 k, 0.1% more than the 10 year average of 9,125 k.

- Extent is 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  513 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  314 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  602 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  516 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  93 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  914 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  26 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 92.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 24 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.27 million km2, 1.09 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 7th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #886 on: August 22, 2023, 04:22:51 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,299,349 KM2 as at 21-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 24k, 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,634 k, which is 162 k, 1.7% more than the 10 year average of 9,472 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  701 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  333 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  150 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  487 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  212 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.4% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 20 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.84 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #887 on: August 23, 2023, 06:02:22 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 22nd, 2023:
       4,925,226 km2, a drop of -62,291 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kiwichick16

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #888 on: August 23, 2023, 06:48:46 AM »
Thanks  Juan  ...  i notice the delta to 2012 now seems to be levelling out  ...... but are we about to come up to the GAC  period ?  .... or was that earlier ?  .....i forget

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #889 on: August 23, 2023, 08:20:40 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,925,226 KM2 as at 22-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 62k, 14 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,198 k, which is 25 k, 0.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,173 k.

- Extent is 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  506 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  346 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  608 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  483 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  62 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  914 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  35 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.2% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 23 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.25 million km2, 1.08 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #890 on: August 23, 2023, 02:40:59 PM »
NSIDC 5-day data shows an area gain today. The villain is the Central Arctic Region - see next post

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,305,277 KM2 as at 22-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 6k, 36 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,628 k, which is 126 k, 1.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,502 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  663 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  381 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  172 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  540 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  174 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.7% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 19 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.87 million km2, 0.63 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #891 on: August 23, 2023, 02:44:00 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

High Arctic and Peripheral Seas summary graphs and regional tables attached
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #892 on: August 23, 2023, 10:54:15 PM »
more 10%/day losses in Chukchi, ESS and Hudson.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #893 on: August 24, 2023, 06:04:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 23rd, 2023:
       4,851,531 km2, a drop of -73,695 km2.

For comments, see the first post in this thread.
Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
« Last Edit: August 24, 2023, 06:18:09 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #894 on: August 24, 2023, 06:28:09 AM »
Thanks  Juan  ...  i notice the delta to 2012 now seems to be levelling out  ...... but are we about to come up to the GAC  period ?  .... or was that earlier ?  .....i forget

The GAC was at the beginning of August. As far as I know, Neven was the first to talk about the possible consequences of the GAC. You can find what happened on Neven's Blog. By example, on this link (see the other July and August Neven's posts).

https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/arctic-summer-storm-open-thread.html
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kiwichick16

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #895 on: August 24, 2023, 07:32:17 AM »
Thanks Juan

Tom Stedman

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #896 on: August 24, 2023, 07:42:21 AM »
Just dropped below the 2014 minimum today too.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #897 on: August 24, 2023, 09:20:01 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,851,531 KM2 as at 23-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 74k, 28 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,272 k, which is 53 k, 0.6% more than the 10 year average of 9,219 k.

- Extent is 6th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

- Extent is  504 k LESS than 2022,
- Extent is  395 k LESS than 2021,
- Extent is  586 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  439 k MORE than  2019,
- Extent is  40 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  935 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  58 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 93.7% of extent losses from maximum to minimum done, and on average 22 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in September 2023 of 4.23 million km2, 1.05 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low minimum of 3.18 million km2, and 6th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on images to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #898 on: August 24, 2023, 01:28:40 PM »
NSIDC 5-day data shows an area again for a second day. Again the villain is the Central Arctic Region - see next post


NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  3,317,422 KM2 as at 23-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 12k, 40 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28k,
- Area loss from maximum on this date is 9,616 k, which is 87 k, 0.9% more than the 10 year average of 9,529 k.

- Area is at position #7 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  626 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  441 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  208 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  575 k MORE than 2012
- Area is  138 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.9% of Area losses  from maximum to minimum done, and 18 days to minimum

Projections.

Average remaining Area loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2023 of 2.91 million km2, 0.67 million km2 above the Sept 2012 record low maximum of 2.25 million km2, and 4th lowest in the 45 year satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2023 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #899 on: August 24, 2023, 01:30:24 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):

High Arctic and Peripheral Seas summary graphs and regional tables attached
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)