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Stephan

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2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 07, 2024, 09:56:20 PM »
The first week of 2024 has passed. Here is the first weekly average on Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on December 31, 2023:     422.52 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   419.34 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                397.73 ppm
Last updated: January 07, 2024

The annual increase is at 2.18 ppm. Although three days were "unavailable" the hourly readings show that this average can be evaluated as a whole.
The increase is below the 10 y average of 2.48 ppm/a.

Let's hope that it will stay below the 10 y average for the next 52 weeks!
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2024, 10:41:05 PM »
Thanks for the update Stephan, the annual increase is 3.18

Stephan

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2024, 07:23:17 PM »
Thanks for the update Stephan, the annual increase is 3.18
Thank you. My maths wasn't good yesterday. so I correct the evaluation as follows:

The annual increase is at 3.18 ppm. Although three days were "unavailable" the hourly readings show that this average can be evaluated as a whole.
The increase is above the 10 y average of 2.48 ppm/a.
Let's hope that from next week on it will stay below the 10 y average for the rest of the year!
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2024, 10:45:55 AM »
Happy New Year everyone!

I have waited with my first post until Scripps publish the official daily values for the past three months, so I could clean up the daily values I took from X/Twitter. This has happened on January 8, so here we go...

Last year began rather slow (in terms of CO2 increases). The first two months of 2023 saw almost no increases at all. CO2 values then picked up again in April. The rest of the year, of course, was a banger...
Consequently, annual increases look to be rather high (near 3.5 ppm) for the beginning of 2024. Some of that is an artifact, resulting from the slow start we had a year ago. The real question is what kind of increases we see starting in April. Weekly increases regularly exceeding 3-4 ppm wouldn't surprise me at all until then. If we still see such values in May then we have a topic for a conversation.

I expect Met Office to publish a forecast for 2024 some time in January. Once they have done so, I'll update the chart accordingly.

Scripps data
Met Office forecast
« Last Edit: January 10, 2024, 10:55:17 AM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2024, 09:24:21 PM »
thanks  Ren  ......cool graphs    .....currently 3 ppm above last the same time last year  ......could we go past 425 ppm at the peak ?

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2024, 10:15:32 PM »
thanks  Ren  ......cool graphs    .....currently 3 ppm above last the same time last year  ......could we go past 425 ppm at the peak ?
With 424.0 as average in May 2023 we will definitively see at least a 425.X ppm maximum this year, more likely one or two monthly averages beyond 426 ppm.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2024, 05:44:19 AM »
NOAA's monthly average in May 2023 was 424.00 ppm (the record stands at 425.01 ppm for a daily and 424.64 ppm for a weekly average). I'd be very surprised if the May 2024 monthly average doesn't go above 426 ppm. We may even get to 427.x (almost definitely in daily or weekly averages, less likely in the monthly average), and to 428.x on single days if we get an outlier. It all depends on whether we maintain those increases of about 3 ppm/year that we've seen for the past nine months...

My question is, how will the likely end of El Niño during the second quarter of 2024 affect CO2 levels later in the year? Will it have a visible impact immediately, or will we see a repeat of what happened in 2016? That year, we did switch from a strong El Niño to La Niña conditions between April and August -- too late to prevent a record high increase of CO2 levels and global temperatures throughout the entire year.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2024, 05:50:12 AM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2024, 08:28:19 PM »
A new weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average is available.

Week beginning on January 07, 2024:     423.49 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               419.54 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            398.26 ppm
Last updated: January 14, 2024

The annual increase is now at 3.95 ppm. This is very high and much higher than the 10 y average of 2.52 ppm/a. One of the reasons is a daily average of 424.96 ppm yesterday which was the highest ever measured daily average. Not all days had data smooth enough to be evaluated. Two out of seven days wrere "unavailable" and the hourly data look like being on a bumpy ride...
« Last Edit: January 14, 2024, 08:33:49 PM by Stephan »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2024, 07:12:39 AM »
Remember what we talked about back in July 2023?

The funny thing is that Scripps CO2 data don't show the same spike, which may be a saving grace. NOAA data may turn out to suffer from some kind of measurement error or something, because both the values themselves, and the difference between the two stations, are incredible...

Following Stephen's latest post, I wondered what had happened to the daily value of 425.01 ppm that I still had in my data sheet. As it turns out, NOAA has recently (does anyone know when exactly?) made substantial corrections to their daily CO2 data, especially those from January-May and July-August 2023.

It turns out that the NOAA data was actually unreliable, as suspected. Those erroneous data points have now been adjusted (downwards, mostly). The large "bump" that we saw in weekly averages last July has disappeared completely. Values for some days were changed by almost 2 ppm. The months of July and August 2023 were the most affected. One of the charts below shows the magnitude of the correction. Monthly averages are also affected, but to a lesser degree. The effect this correction has on the yearly average for 2023 will be of the order of 0.02 ppm (basically negligible).

I am also posting a corrected set of charts for 2023, replacing those above. You may use the old ones to see where the data has changed most. The corrected data is in much better agreement with the independent measurements made by Scripps -- once again highlighting how useful it is to have more than one source of data.

And for the record, the highest daily record in the corrected data set, prior to 13 January 2024, was 424.87 ppm, set on 4 June 2023.

EDIT: In the title of the third chart, it should say "2023 vs. 2022".
« Last Edit: January 15, 2024, 07:35:30 AM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2024, 09:36:24 AM »
Sweet! Thanks, Ren.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2024, 05:13:34 PM »
Another weekend is almost over in Central Europe - another weekly Mauna Loa CO2 is available.

Week beginning on January 14, 2024:     422.84 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               419.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            398.05 ppm
Last updated: January 21, 2024

The annual increase is at 3.54 ppm (!) which is of course higher than the 10 year average of 2.48 ppm/a. The intra-day variations were quite small, thus all seven days passed the quality criteria of NOAA.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2024, 12:45:47 AM »
I'll have a few words to say about the Met Office forecast for 2024, which has been published a few days ago (link). I'll make a post about that when I have time to do it properly. For the moment, I have just updated my chart to show the forecast.

A few words about the current levels, and the rates of increase we are seeing. What I find striking is that January is, so far, on track to be about 0.6 ppm below the Met Office forecast. We really should see yearly increases well in excess of 4 ppm at the moment, due to the unusually low values we had last January. I know the numbers that Stephen has posted over the past few weeks sound alarming -- 3.5-4 ppm are usually considered large increases -- but oddly enough, the best news right now is that we see numbers as low as this!

By the way, Met Office's prediction for the yearly increase for all of 2024 is 2.84 ppm.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2024, 07:13:35 PM »
Please find below the latest weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average.

Week beginning on January 21, 2024:     422.86 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               419.64 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            398.05 ppm
Last updated: January 28, 2024

The annual increase of 3.22 ppm/a is lower than last week, but still well above the 10 years average of 2.48 ppm/a. One of the reasons is (see Renerpho's postings the last week) the low January 2023 increase. Apart from Jan 26 all days showed a low intra-day variation, none of the days were "unavailable".
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2024, 04:16:47 PM »
Please find my regular update on Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on January 28, 2024:     422.28 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                419.72 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             398.08 ppm
Last updated: February 04, 2024

The annual increase is at 2.56 ppm, which is a bit above the 10 years average of 2.42 ppm/a. This week saw very stable values until Feb 02. On Feb 03 the hourly averages "exploded", therefore this day was "unavailable".
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Renerpho

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2024, 04:41:38 AM »
Next week could be fun. Scripps just had a new record reading of 426.50 ppm on February 3rd (the old record was 424.66 ppm). NOAA's daily average isn't available for that day because their intra-day variability was too high, but their most recent hourly averages are above 426 ppm as well. If we remain anywhere near that level for even a few days then we may finally see the 4+ ppm/year rises that I had expected...
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2024, 09:42:11 PM »
The first month's average of Mauna Loa CO2 for 2024 is available.

January 2024:  422.80 ppm
January 2023:  419.48 ppm
January 2014:  397.85 ppm
Last updated: Feb 05, 2024

The annual increase for January 2024 is at 3.32 ppm. This is higher than the 10 years' average of 2.50 ppm, and #17 in the rank of the increase rates since 1959 (meaning 16 out of 780 months since the measurements began had higher annual increase rates than Jan 2024).
The increase rate is also by far higher than the expected rate which should be (linearly fitted 1958-2024) at 2.44 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 [338.75 ppm] for 1980. January 2024 is at 124.8 compared to that index.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2024, 10:18:15 PM »
& here are the graphs for Mauna Loa & Global (to October 23) CO2 ppm

Note how the 12 month change peaked around or just after the El Nino of 1997-98 and 2015-16.
Maybe 2024-25 will see some awesome monthly changes.

click images to enlarge
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2024, 01:32:22 AM »
Next week could be fun. Scripps just had a new record reading of 426.50 ppm on February 3rd (the old record was 424.66 ppm). NOAA's daily average isn't available for that day because their intra-day variability was too high, but their most recent hourly averages are above 426 ppm as well. If we remain anywhere near that level for even a few days then we may finally see the 4+ ppm/year rises that I had expected...

While Mauna Loa has been lagging up until two days ago, it seems to me like the other sites have been more consistently elevated as would be expected from a Nino. Attached are Barrow (with annual difference >5ppm currently), American Samoa (annual >4ppm), and the South Pole (annual ~3ppm, similar to what was seen from 2015-17).
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2024, 06:44:59 PM »
If the current week ended today (with 5 of 7 days done), the annual weekly increase would be 5.75 ppm -- shattering the old all-time record of 5.07 ppm from July 2016, and only the second time that the annual increase would be above 5 ppm. In fact, it would be the first time (except for a few weeks in 2016) that the annual increase exceeded 4.5 ppm.

This is what I had said was likely to happen (see my "predictions" for January-March made earlier in this thread), but it is strange to actually see it.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2024, 10:15:12 PM »
Please find the latest measurements on Mauna Loa CO2. The red dashed line shows what I would have expected to occur. The green circle shows what I would define as "outlier" as a sudden increase of global CO2 has not happened last week.
Of course the values will be part of the next weekly and monthly average, and the daily average on Feb 04 with more than 426 ppm is the highest ever measured daily average.

Let's see how long this outlier will last...
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2024, 11:30:29 PM »
The red dashed line shows what I would have expected to occur. The green circle shows what I would define as "outlier" as a sudden increase of global CO2 has not happened last week.

The "truth" is probably somewhere in the middle. The values we saw last week were probably an outlier, too. We should be near 424 ppm right now. Neither at 426 ppm, nor at 422 ppm as we were the week before. I think the chart below illustrates that nicely.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2024, 03:47:37 AM »
Ralph Keeling has commented on the "jump" we've seen around February 3rd.
https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/2024/02/10/on-this-weeks-record-high-co2-readings-at-mauna-loa/
Quote
“We attribute the large increase in CO2 that occurred from Feb. 2 to Feb. 3 to a strong wind shift, as a new weather system moved in,” Keeling said. “Before this weather shift, the Mauna Loa Observatory was receiving air that had blown in from lower latitudes. After the shift, the air was coming from northern latitudes, where CO2 is normally higher this time of year. An upwards shift in CO2 was therefore to be expected.”
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2024, 04:02:31 PM »
If the current week ended today (with 5 of 7 days done), the annual weekly increase would be 5.75 ppm -- shattering the old all-time record of 5.07 ppm from July 2016, and only the second time that the annual increase would be above 5 ppm. In fact, it would be the first time (except for a few weeks in 2016) that the annual increase exceeded 4.5 ppm.
One more day with usable data has been added (February 10th, bringing the total up from 4 to 5). It doesn't change anything. The annual increase of 5.75 ppm stands.

Updated table of largest annual increases (weekly averages)
Total number of weeks: 2,595
Usable data points: 2,507

  #1: 5.75, 2024-02-04
  #2: 5.07, 2016-07-24
  #3: 4.80, 2016-05-29
  #4: 4.56, 2016-03-20
  #5: 4.54, 2016-04-24
  #6: 4.45, 2019-03-24
  #7: 4.40, 2012-03-25
  #8: 4.34, 2014-02-23
  #9: 4.33, 2015-12-06
#10: 4.29, 2020-01-19
#11: 4.26, 1998-05-10
#12: 4.24, 2016-01-31
#13: 4.24, 2010-01-24
#14: 4.20, 2015-12-20
#15: 4.16, 1998-06-21
« Last Edit: February 11, 2024, 04:17:23 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2024, 04:25:24 PM »
Renerpho has already explained most of what has happened the last week. I just wonder whether this wind shift that Keeling mentioned was unique. It was of course not the first wind shift since 1958, but obviously it had outstanding effects.

Week beginning on February 04, 2024:     425.83 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 420.08 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              398.18 ppm
Last updated: February 11, 2024

The annual increase is at 5.75 ppm, of course higher than the 10 y average of 2.77 ppm/a.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2024, 04:49:06 PM »
I just wonder whether this wind shift that Keeling mentioned was unique. It was of course not the first wind shift since 1958, but obviously it had outstanding effects.

I'm sure this isn't a unique weather pattern. What may be unique is the combination of record-high increases in places to the north (see Sublime_Rime's comment about Barrow from February 6th) and the very low numbers we've seen one year ago. Hawaii really was at rather low values until about a week ago, compared to other stations around the world. If we had been where expected (near 424 ppm), the jump from last week would look like many others we've seen in the past. The year-to-year increase would still be shattering the record, but it would be easier to just attribute that to what happened last year.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #25 on: February 18, 2024, 02:55:03 PM »
The Mauna Loa CO2 levels have returned to "normal" this week.

Week beginning on February 11, 2024:     423.61 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 420.90 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             397.99 ppm
Last updated: February 18, 2024

After the jump on a higher level (see previous postings) the daily averages have slowly returned to the previous level. Therefore this week's increase rate is a mix between the high "jump" and "average". It is at 2.71 ppm, still higher than the 10 y average of 2.56 ppm/a.



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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #26 on: February 21, 2024, 08:02:02 PM »
The next "peak": Two days at or above 425 ppm in Scripps data already, and one by NOAA. There is a gap of a few days in NOAA data, but Scripps shows that the peak started around February 18/19. If we keep this up for the rest of the week then the record yearly increase of 5.75 ppm that was set in early February may be short-lived.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2024, 08:07:04 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #27 on: February 25, 2024, 07:21:09 AM »
Only two out of seven days had daily averages.
Therefore a reliable evaluation of Mauna Loa CO2 is not possible. The two data points deliver an annual increase of 5.43 ppm/a, second highest increase rate in recorded history.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2024, 12:28:47 PM »
sometimes (often) leading to some minor changes.

As suspected, the daily average for February 24 has been adjusted slightly, to 425.08 ppm. With that, the weekly average rises to 425.21 ppm, giving an annual increase of 5.53 ppm -- the second highest in history, as Stephan mentioned, with usable data from three days. I would argue that that's enough to be meaningful, especially considering that there was very low variation from day to day.

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
« Last Edit: February 25, 2024, 09:19:22 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2024, 02:30:04 AM »
@ ren   ...... seems like a lot of variability  .......more than normal ???

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2024, 10:44:08 AM »
@ ren   ...... seems like a lot of variability  .......more than normal ???

The sudden spike we had two weeks ago was unusual, yes. The spike we currently see is, I think, in line with what happens every spring. Mauna Loa CO2 is always most variable between November and May, because it depends most on the weather during those months.

For comparison, below is the diagram from the NOAA website in early March 2023 (roughly a year ago). Day-to-day variability was about the same that it is now.

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2024, 03:44:05 PM »
thanks  Ren

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2024, 11:13:26 AM »
Another week without a new weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average:

March 01:         Unavailable
February 29:     Unavailable
February 28:     Unavailable
February 27:     Unavailable
February 26:     425.40 ppm
Last Updated: March 2, 2024

A proper analysis is therefore not possible. Sorry.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2024, 09:55:27 PM »
NOAA is suffering from some kind of communication issue since February 26th. As Stephan has mentioned, their data is currently unavailable (the problem is ongoing as of the morning of March 3rd). Maybe we'll get those numbers later, once they have solved whatever is causing the problem.

Scripps is unaffected, and has had good data for 7 of the last 8 days. Their data shows that the peak that has started around February 19th is still ongoing, although daily averages have been slowly declining over the past week, from 425.68 ppm on February 26th to 424.25 ppm on March 2nd.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2024, 10:00:36 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #34 on: March 04, 2024, 10:48:53 AM »
NOAA is suffering from some kind of communication issue since February 26th.

The NOAA website https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html has been down since yesterday evening. Maybe the two issues are related?  ???

EDIT: The page is back after about two days. Still no data though.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2024, 09:03:21 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #35 on: March 05, 2024, 09:01:56 PM »
NOAA's communication issue persists (no data since February 26th), but Scripps comes to the rescue, with good data for 9 of the last 10 days. Intraday variability has been low for the past week.

Last measurement was 424.52 ppm on March 4th. The peak is still not over!
« Last Edit: March 05, 2024, 09:08:50 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #36 on: March 05, 2024, 10:10:18 PM »
NOAA's communication issue persists (no data since February 26th).......
Until they sort it it also probably means no update of monthly data for global CO2, CH4, N2O, & SF6
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Stephan

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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2024, 06:02:47 AM »
NOAA's website is back.
Please find the latest monthly average for CO2, combined with a grain of salt due to missing (no daily data since Feb 28) and "unavailable" days:

February 2024:       424.55 ppm
February 2023:       420.30 ppm
February 2014:       398.01 ppm
Last updated: Mar 05, 2024

The annual increase is 4.14 ppm if I use the data from March 2023. A corrected Feb 2023 value delivers an annual increase of 4.25 ppm/a. This is outstandingly high. Only March 2016 had a higher increase rate.
The increase rate is also higher than the expected rate which should be (linearly fitted 1959-2024) at 2.56 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 for the year 1980 [338.75 ppm]. February 2024 is at 125.3 compared to that index.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2024, 06:19:26 AM by Stephan »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2024, 08:47:39 AM »
& here are the graphs for Mauna Loa (to Feb 24) & Global CO2 ppm (to Dec 23)

click images to enlarge
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2024, 10:03:15 PM »
Thank you gero as always for the graphs.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #40 on: March 07, 2024, 12:12:35 AM »
The communications issue has been resolved, and the missing data has been added retroactively about 20 minutes ago (https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_daily_mlo.txt):

2024-2-26  425.48 (revised from 425.40 published previously)
2024-2-27  425.24
2024-2-28  425.38
2024-2-29  425.25
2024-3-01  424.92
2024-3-02  424.47
2024-3-03  N/A
2024-3-04  424.81

The average for the week beginning February 25th is 425.13 ppm, compared to 421.24 ppm the previous year -- an increase of 3.89 ppm.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2024, 05:32:06 AM »
Thank you for filling the gap. I hope that things return to "normal" at NOAA now.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #42 on: March 11, 2024, 01:52:16 AM »
NOAA weekly average, March 3-9: 425.45 ppm, up by 4.01 ppm from last year (421.44 ppm)
Scripps weekly average, March 3-9: 425.02 ppm, up by 3.95 ppm from last year (421.07 ppm)

NOAA's increase is the 4th largest this year, and 23rd among the 2,599 weeks on record. While the NOAA data have been moderately stable, with only 4 usable days, Scripps had usable data from 6 of the 7 days this week. The effect of this on the weekly average was negligible.

The ten largest weekly increases on record:

  #1: 5.75 ppm, 2024-02-04
  #2: 5.53 ppm, 2024-02-18
  #3: 5.07 ppm, 2016-07-31
  #4: 4.80 ppm, 2016-06-12
  #5: 4.64 ppm, 2024-02-11
  #6: 4.56 ppm, 2016-04-10
  #7: 4.54 ppm, 2016-05-22
  #8: 4.45 ppm, 2019-04-28
  #9: 4.40 ppm, 2012-05-06
#10: 4.34 ppm, 2014-04-13

OUTLOOK
At this time in 2023, we were most of the way through a two-week-long peak, by about 1 to 2 ppm. This means that we would have a >5 ppm increase again next week if we just keep up the current levels. An increase by 0.4 ppm would put us in record territory; anything but a >1 ppm drop would be a top-10 week. For comparison, the NOAA weekly average for March 10-16, 2023, was 420.08 ppm (Scripps: 419.57 ppm).
« Last Edit: March 11, 2024, 02:01:40 AM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #43 on: March 11, 2024, 08:45:28 PM »
...and I forgot the weekly update - sorry

Here it is:
Week beginning on March 03, 2024:     425.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             421.44 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         398.78 ppm
Last updated: March 11, 2024

The annual increase is at 4.01 ppm which is way above the "usual" values, more details see renerpho's recent posting. Of course this increase rate is above the 10 y average of 2.67 ppm/a.
The intra-day variations remained high (one day was "unavailable"), but the inter-day variation was pretty low. All in all the values sticked with the higher level (see previous postings). If they returned to "normal" (whatever that is) the annual increase would turn back to roughly 2 ppm/a.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #44 on: March 17, 2024, 03:41:27 PM »
Sunday afternoon - time for an update on Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on March 10, 2024:     425.74 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             420.08 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          400.31 ppm
Last updated: March 17, 2024

The annual increase of 5.68 ppm is the second highest increase rate since 1959. Last week also saw the highest ever recorded daily value (March 15: 427.93 ppm). Without this outlier the annual increase would have been at 5.28 which would still be at #3 in the top rank since 1959. A comparison with the last ten years gives the real dimension of what is going on: 2.54 ppm/a on average...
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #45 on: March 17, 2024, 06:05:17 PM »
NOAA weekly average, March 10-16: 425.74 ppm, up by 5.66 ppm from last year (420.08 ppm)
Scripps weekly average, March 10-16: 425.64 ppm, up by 6.07 ppm from last year (419.57 ppm)

NOAA's increase is the 2nd largest ever. 2024 now has four of the ten weeks with the largest increases on record, eclipsing the old record year of 2016. The Scripps data looks even more extreme, with two daily averages above 427 ppm; its increase of 6.07 ppm shatters the old record from a few weeks ago by 0.53 ppm, which itself looked like an extreme outlier. The new record is almost 1.3 ppm higher than any increase observed at Scripps prior to the start of this year.

The ten largest weekly increases on record at NOAA:

  #1: 5.75 ppm, 2024-02-04
  #2: 5.66 ppm, 2024-03-10
  #3: 5.53 ppm, 2024-02-18
  #4: 5.07 ppm, 2016-07-31
  #5: 4.80 ppm, 2016-06-12
  #6: 4.64 ppm, 2024-02-11
  #7: 4.56 ppm, 2016-04-10
  #8: 4.54 ppm, 2016-05-22
  #9: 4.45 ppm, 2019-04-28
#10: 4.40 ppm, 2012-05-06
...
#25: 4.00 ppm, 2016-05-08

OUTLOOK
The week starting 17 March 2023 had an average of 420.75 ppm at NOAA (420.46 ppm at Scripps), much higher than the previous week. This makes another record unlikely. However, if we stay at the current level, we should still get close to 5 ppm. Levels have to decrease by at least 0.6 ppm to land outside the top 10, and by at least 1 ppm to leave the top 25.

EDIT: Added Scripps daily data from March 16, published after my original post (424.79 ppm; slightly decreasing the weekly average from the previous value of 425.86 ppm).
« Last Edit: March 17, 2024, 08:19:59 PM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #46 on: March 17, 2024, 08:13:15 PM »
With all the absurd numbers from the previous posts, I think it is important to put those into context: Yes, the numbers are higher than even I had anticipated, but the start to last year (January-March 2023) was unusual, too, with CO2 levels well below expectations. To quote myself:

The real question is what kind of increases we see starting in April. Weekly increases regularly exceeding 3-4 ppm wouldn't surprise me at all until then. If we still see such values in May then we have a topic for a conversation.
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #47 on: March 24, 2024, 05:14:55 PM »
early Sunday evening = time for an update on Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on March 17, 2024:     425.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             420.75 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          400.87 ppm
Last updated: March 24, 2024

The annual increase of 4.62 ppm is at #7 in the list according to renerpho's evaluation from last week. It is of course higher than the 10y average of 2.45 ppm/a.
The last week showed high intra- and inter-day variations, one day was "unavailable".
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #48 on: March 25, 2024, 12:30:45 AM »
NOAA weekly average, March 17-23: 425.37 ppm, up by 4.62 ppm from last year (420.75 ppm)
Scripps weekly average, March 17-23: 425.49 ppm, up by 5.03 ppm from last year (420.46 ppm)

CO2 levels did decrease slightly compared to the previous week, but not enough to drop out of the top-10. The table of largest weekly increases is now dominated by the first three months of 2024.
Scripps data has been unavailable on 3 of the 7 days, and both Scripps and NOAA have shown rather large fluctuations from one day to the next. The data is still good, but this is the time of the year where variability is generally the highest (because CO2 levels now are most strongly dependent on the weather), and it shows.

The ten largest weekly increases on record at NOAA:

  #1: 5.75 ppm, 2024-02-04
  #2: 5.66 ppm, 2024-03-10
  #3: 5.53 ppm, 2024-02-18
  #4: 5.07 ppm, 2016-07-31
  #5: 4.80 ppm, 2016-06-12
  #6: 4.64 ppm, 2024-02-11
  #7: 4.62 ppm, 2024-03-17
  #8: 4.56 ppm, 2016-04-10
  #9: 4.54 ppm, 2016-05-22
#10: 4.45 ppm, 2019-04-28
...
#25: 4.01 ppm, 2024-03-03

OUTLOOK
The end of March also marks the end of the anomalously low CO2 levels we saw in early 2023. At this time last year, we switched from unusually low to unusually high levels. As a result, the time of records should now be over, and I guess we won't see many (if any) more 5+ ppm increases this year. Expect a lot of increases near 3 ppm over the coming two months, but be prepared for the occasional surprise...
In 2023, the week starting March 24th had an average CO2 level of 421.50 ppm at NOAA (420.99 ppm at Scripps). If we stay at the current levels, the weekly average would increase by 3.87 ppm at NOAA (4.50 ppm at Scripps). Levels would have to increase by another 0.6 ppm for a top-10 result (or by 0.15 ppm for a top-25).
The week starting March 31st had an average of 422.64 ppm at NOAA (422.34 ppm at Scripps). Even a weekly average of 427 ppm would no longer be in the top-10 at that point, and we would have to get to 428.4 ppm for a new all-time record. Those are levels that we may not reach this year, not even at the yearly maximum in May.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2024, 12:36:36 AM by Renerpho »
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Re: 2024 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #49 on: March 31, 2024, 02:55:46 PM »
Happy Easter everybody.
Here is the latest Mauna Loa CO2 weekly average.

As renerpho already mentioned, the time of record increase rates is over now. Nevertheless the annual increase of 3.54 ppm is way above the 10 y average of 2.46 ppm/a:

Week beginning on March 24, 2024:     425.04 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             421.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          400.49 ppm
Last updated: March 31, 2024

What is not over is the high intra- and inter-day fluctuation. Three days were "unavailable".
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