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Author Topic: The Pausers  (Read 11164 times)

viddaloo

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The Pausers
« on: September 25, 2014, 05:44:05 AM »
One of a thousand similar 'science' stories in the news:

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«For example, over the past 17 years or so there has been a slowdown — even a pause — in the rate of warming of the atmosphere. We're confident the climate is still changing, because the oceans are still warming, land is losing ice, and sea level is rising. We predict the atmosphere will start to warm again after this temporary blip, and we think there are several contributing factors to the pause, including a change in movement of heat around the planet, a dip in the brightness of the sun, and reflection of the sun by pollution and volcanic eruptions — but we don't yet know the exact contributions of each.»

Another reason to be confident the atmosphere «will start to warm again», is of course the fact that it is warming and never stopped warming. Including this last August, there's been at least 3 months this year warmer globally than any year since the start of measure. 2005 and 2010 have set new global all–time high temperature records. 2014 is expected to do the same. Since when was a «pause» an adequate description of a decade of steadily warmer and more extreme surface temperatures, in which we've also had at least 4 (*) all–time minima for Arctic Sea Ice volume?

Are we to assume that since the extreme El Niño year of 1998 (that all climate change deniers love to cherrypick), world climate and weather would suddenly stop producing 'noise' — ups and downs — which it has been producing for eons? That after 1998 there would be no Winter, no night and day? It is truly sad to see so–called scientists go down this road of politicized reporting and debating.

In reality, the Pausers, as we may now rightfully call them, are serving a pretty clear political interest with their writing, separated from the science, of course, which shows a steady rise of temperatures. If your salary has mostly been around £50,000, you don't go around calling yourself poor the first years that you make over £100,000, unless you're an irony relic from the nineties.

I said "at least 4". There's been no less than TEN new all-time minima for sea ice volume since 1998. Some 'pause', huh?
« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 02:18:25 PM by viddaloo »
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 11:28:14 AM »
An interesting fact about the 'pause'  If you run a temperature trend from 1975 to 1997 it is slower than the temperature trend from 1975 to today.  How does a 'pause' cause the global warming rate to increase?

The answer is that the years 1998 and 2002-2006 were well ahead of the previous warming rate.  Since then we've seen several cool years with a pair of multi-year la nina events being an obvious factor. 

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1975/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1975/to:1997/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1975/mean:13/plot/gistemp/from:1997/trend

In my opinion the pause really began about mid 2007.  The heat cooling period from the 06/07 el nino to the 07/08 la nina started earlier and went further than typical.  According to some crude statistical modelling I have done in Uah with the ENSO cycle and a global warming trend some periods since then have been about were expected considering these factors, and some periods have been cooler.  My current number is that we should be in the mid 0.3x for Uah.  We've been hovering in the 0.2xs for several months.

What will be interesting to see is what happens with the current El Nino.  The normal pattern is that there is little impact of an El Nino on temperatures until there is a sharp rise around Dec/Jan, and then a slow cooling from this peak over the next six months.  If we see this typical pattern there will be a further jump up from temperatures that have already increased significantly from the lowest point of the 10/11 La nina.  In that case the pause will start to look like its on its last legs.  A multi-year la nina immediately following this el nino could see the pause morph into a period of slower than expected warming, but without help from a volcano or some other factor then as long as La Nina temperatures keep climbing then even constant La Nina won't be enough to keep us in a pause.

If we look at 2002 we saw a temperature increase similar to an El Nino, when SST patterns were much more neutral than el nino like.  If I was watching the data closely back then I would probably have been speculating on a further rise in the 02/03 el nino that would have seen temperatures soar to spectacular heights and real concern that global warming was happening faster than expected.  Instead temperatures if anything cooled a little in 2003 which is very unusual.  If we see a repeat of this pattern then I would consider that there is still some other factor besides Enso contributing a significant cooling.  I will be watching with interest how temperatures respond to the currently developing el nino.

The fact that there has been 3 months this year warmer than any other month does not a trend make and in itself is not in any way a sign that the pause is over.  The fact that the 12 month temperature average is currently floating at roughly the same level as the el nino influenced peaks in 2005 and 2007 is more telling.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2014, 12:09:58 PM »
The fact that there has been 3 months this year warmer than any other month does not a trend make and in itself is not in any way a sign that the pause is over.  The fact that the 12 month temperature average is currently floating at roughly the same level as the el nino influenced peaks in 2005 and 2007 is more telling.

So, basically, what you're saying is that you are a Pauser, too, right?

Let me ask you pausers straight away: Do you expect the ENSO to suddenly go away, and by what mechanism? For you, there will always be a pause in warming no matter how many new global temp records are smashed (2005, 2010, 2014), because the ENSO is still running, or am I misrepresenting the subtleties of your group thinking here?
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viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2014, 12:47:52 PM »
From a scientific point of view, there is no 'pause' or 'hiatus' or any such silliness in the warming of global temperatures, as clearly seen from this graph of global temperatures. There will always be year-to-year variation, that is what you expect, what you always expected and what you must always expect even for a dramatically warming future. You pausers need to explain the scientific reasoning for calling it a 'pause' a lot better, IMO.

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Michael Hauber

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2014, 10:07:34 PM »
Just because the pause is within normal variation around the long term warming trend doesn't mean it doesn't exist and can't be talked about.

Are you a pause-denier?
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2014, 10:22:31 PM »
Are you a pause-denier?

 ;D!

What scientific data/evidence tells you we're currently in a 'pause'? Pause sounds like the surface isn't warming, but the surface is warming, so how can there be a pause?
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Laurent

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2014, 10:48:38 PM »
Someone could see a "pause", but it is only statistical. What is interesting to notice is that the trend that does keep the earth cool is going up pretty fast. You could say that the trend is flat...looks like a "pause"...but it is not...only a worrying trend toward a hot earth (very dangerous for life).
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/

Michael Hauber

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2014, 12:32:54 AM »


Looks like (yet another) pause to me.

Pause is what you call something when you expect it to start up again.  Otherwise its a stop.

Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Laurent

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2014, 10:46:22 AM »
Oooooh what a beautiful piece of denying !
I do not see the linear trends that you draw...let me redraw it for you :
The global trend is not linear but exponential...it does follow the trend of CO2, CO2 increase temperature, temperature increase CO2.
(You see a linear trend because your point of view is too short)
Ooooh and do not forget that these are surface temperatures, we should add all of them , including oceans temperatures (they contain much more energy than the atmosphere).
« Last Edit: September 27, 2014, 11:00:19 AM by Laurent »

Michael Hauber

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2014, 12:10:56 PM »
So is that how some one with an over excitable crayon views global warming?
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.


viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2014, 03:58:15 PM »
Opinions clearly differ on what happens in the near future, yet my question was really very simple: What evidence is there of a 'pause' in surface warming to this day? (And besides: What meanings of the word pause are used in these cases?)

In my (documented) view, we're currently in year 3 of a repeating 5-year cycle for polar ice extent. My hypothesis that 2015 will excede 2010 - both #4 years in this cycle - in low September volume is currently strengthened 11.7% in just 3 days since its inception.
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wili

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2014, 09:20:34 PM »
mh, so by your own graph, we must conclude that GW has been in constant pause(s) since 1970. Is that really what you believe?

The question is, when there is a lot of static in the data, when do you decide that a trend has risen above the level of static.

Would you characterize every individual year that average global temperatures go down instead of up to be a 'pause'?

To name something a 'pause' presumes that there is something significant about that period. Do you think a year of temperature variation is significant?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

jbg

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2014, 06:59:19 PM »
An interesting fact about the 'pause'  If you run a temperature trend from 1975 to 1997 it is slower than the temperature trend from 1975 to today.  How does a 'pause' cause the global warming rate to increase?

The answer is that the years 1998 and 2002-2006 were well ahead of the previous warming rate.  Since then we've seen several cool years with a pair of multi-year la nina events being an obvious factor.
It took a while for the 1997-8 event to work its way out of the system, especially with El Niño conditions from 2002-5.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2014, 11:41:36 PM »
How long did it take the 97/98 el nino to work its way out of the system?

The most obvious thing (to me) relevant to global temperatures that happens with an el nino is that the warm water in the ocean is redistributed so that more warm water is near the surface.  The most obvious consequence of this is that the amount of heat being radiated to space must increase, so if nothing else changed then an El nino should result in a net loss of ocean heat content.  However numbers don't seem to show this.  Presumably changes in atmospheric circulation and in particular cloud patterns must offset this necessary loss of heat, and perhaps even provide a positive feedback as if anything ocean heat content seems to go up in an el nino.

In the past I have analysed UAH global temperatures and ENSO.  I have grouped years with similar ENSO activity and then adjusted each year for an assumed warming trend of 0.2/decade.  This shows that generally el ninos and la ninos follow a somewhat predictable path over the year, with some intriguing departures from the normal path.  For the 97/98 el nino the UAH temperature was high but not too far from typical up to January - which is normally the peak, but then increased further in February to be well clear of anything else (when adjusting for the trend).  Normally after an el nino temperatures seem to recover pretty well by roughly the 3rd quarter of the following year.  However from such a high base temperatures continued to fall through 98 and early 99, and it was only around 2nd quarter 99 that temperatures fell to a level around what would be expected from the 98/99 la nina (which otherwise should have reached bottom around Jan 99). 

For most enso events the effect on temperature seems to be over about 9 months after peak, and 97/98 being an obvious exception at maybe more like 15 months.  I do sometimes wonder though if there are further more subtle effects that can't be captured with such a basic analysis, however such effects can't be too strong or obvious.  The repeated warm ENSO events from 2002 to 2007 did not push temperatures up further in any obvious way, but maintained a relatively high level.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2014, 12:10:57 AM »
The repeated warm ENSO events from 2002 to 2007 did not push temperatures up further in any obvious way, but maintained a relatively high level.

The biggest volume loss in Arctic sea ice in modern history occurred from exactly 2002 to 2007:

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The 2007 major ice loss event starts as early as March 2002, lasts until January 2008, 70 months, and melts even more ice, nearly 5000 km³, than the 2010 event (2009–2012) [3000 km³].

Could some of the warming have gone into melting those 5000 km³ of ice?
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bassman

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2014, 01:02:11 AM »
New paper today, ocean heat content in Southern Ocean significantly underestimated.

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/about/staff/Durack/dump/oceanwarming/

Someone please convince me that this isn't the most important paper published so far this year.

viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2014, 10:36:27 AM »
Today I saw the first suggestion on this forum that global warming has stopped. No less. I call that successful moving of border poles. Saying there is no pause will be harder after the rhetoric moved to 'stopped' global warming.

We'll be 'cooling' next, maybe as early as next week?
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ChasingIce

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2014, 06:32:35 AM »
I would be very wary of referring to NH sea ice loss, unless you're prepared to also discuss SH ice gain.  I'd also be careful of mixing atmospheric satellite readings with thermometer based measurements because they are different.

TeaPotty

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2014, 08:45:33 AM »
2 Articles that destroy the pause/stop/slowdown....

A Pause or Not a Pause, That is the Question (Tamsin Edwards)
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/a-pause-or-not-a-pause-that-is-the-question/

Not only is there no valid evidence that the “pause” has lasted 25 years or longer, there’s not even any valid evidence that a “pause” happened at all. Heck, there’s not even any valid evidence that there’s been a slowdown — let alone a “pause” — in this data set.





Recent Global Warming Trends: Significant or Paused or What? (Stefan Rahmstorf)
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/recent-global-warming-trends-significant-or-paused-or-what/

...the 0.116 since 1998 is not significantly different from those 0.175 °C per decade since 1979 in this sense. Just look at the confidence intervals. This difference is well within the range expected from the short-term variability found in that time series... There simply has been no statistically significant slowdown, let alone a “pause”.

...it is factually wrong to claim there has been no warming since 1998... So while there has been a slowdown, this slowdown is not significant in the sense that it is not outside of what you expect from time to time due to year-to-year natural variability


viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2015, 10:46:41 PM »
Thx, TeaPotty!  :)

Otherwise, I think this plot pretty much destroys the IPCC "pause" forever.

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viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2015, 05:36:26 PM »
"Pausemaniacs", absolutely love it! Relevant to this thread:

Tamino just added his two cents to the hottest-year discussion: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/its-the-trend-stupid-3/

It’s the Trend, Stupid

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The reaction of the “pausemaniacs” to the record hottest year has mostly been protest. Breakin’ some temperature record just don’t mean a gosh-darn thing worth payin’ no attention to. It only broke the record by a little bit. And besides, it ain’t the individual years, record hot or not, that count, it’s the pause that counts — a record hottest year don’t end the pause!

Methinks they do protest too much. Perhaps they fear that a record year really does threaten their beloved “pause.” But that’s not the real threat at all, it’s the fact that the data have followed the global-warming-continues-without-slowing-down pattern just about as closely as one could have expected, because all the while they’ve been bellowing about the pause that never was.

But the record year does do this: it makes it harder to sell the whole “pause” idea…
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viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2015, 10:32:20 PM »
More pause prose:

Oceans are warming so fast that they keep breaking scientists' charts

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Some people tried to tell us global warming had “paused”, that it ended in 1998, or that the past 15 years or so had not seen a change in the energy of the Earth. This ocean warming data is the clearest nail in that coffin. There never was a pause to global warming, there never was a halt, and the folks that tried to tell you there was were, well, I’ll let you decide.
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jbg

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2015, 11:31:01 PM »
More pause prose:

Oceans are warming so fast that they keep breaking scientists' charts
Time to go swimming off Point Barrow or Iqaluit yet?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #24 on: January 26, 2015, 01:09:22 AM »
Time to go swimming off Point Barrow or Iqaluit yet?

The surf there was good not so very long ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/08/david-cameron-practices-for-big-wave-surfing-contest/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #25 on: January 28, 2015, 10:02:43 PM »
World can live better and curb climate change, says UK government
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Even though the world's population is set to rise to 10 billion by 2050 from 7 billion today, the tool shows it is possible for everyone to eat well, travel further and live in more comfortable homes, without pushing global temperature rise above 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change said.
You go, England!

And don't forget to drink your tea.
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viddaloo

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Re: The Pausers
« Reply #26 on: January 28, 2015, 10:19:25 PM »
The main reason the Ministry of Love can now claim this, is that they've discovered this magnificent method, called "Lying Through Your Teeth".
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