Here is what it looks like through the eyes of NASAs Worldview. The ESS coast, first four days of June 2016 ... it was a short spring
PS: I don't know if it is related to the torching of the ESS but Dr. Slaters model is nosediving (hat tip to southseas over at the IJIS thread).
It predicts an extent of 6.72 x 10^6 km^2 for 22nd of July ... (I think it is worth mentioning because in 2015 it was astonishingly accurate)
Slater's model is based on an assessment of melting ponds and a projection of how they develop over time. I like his model a lot, since it is grounded in the physics of albedo change and ice melt.
AFAIK, he uses a model for melting ponds that includes ice concentration.
If that is true, today's drop in his model may very well be related to the ongoing ESS torching event.
After all, Wipneus reported a whopping 150 k km^2 drop in ice "area" today, mostly due to reduced ice concentration along the ESS coast and the CAB :
Although Slater's low probability ice areas do not seem to correlate well with today's areas that dropped in ice concentration:
For example, I'm not sure why Slater projects a 70% chance of an ice-free area just north of Greenland at this point. There is no concentration drop in the AMSR2 data in that area.
Not to mention that Slater projects a 50% chance that that little ice bridge in the Beaufort that Neven has been talking about will survive until July 22.
So I'm not sure now what drives the spacial distribution in Slater's model exactly.
But overall, with his projection of 6.72 M km^2 on July 22, he is some 600 k km^2 below the 2012 extent graph, and 1.16 M km^2 below 2015. 2012 had the GAC in early August, so if we follow the (more conventional) 2015 line, then Slater is pointing at a 4.6 (2015) - 1.16 = 3.44 M km^2 September extent.
That projection is a bit more aggressive than mine, but given the uncertainties, and the fact that Slater's model is up-to-date daily, while my model is just 'clunky' based on average May data, it would be the second year in a row that Slater's and my SIPN projections agree.
Note that these projections (both Slater's and mine) are all based on an "average" summer melting season like 2015. If there is any sort of 2007 ice export event or a 2012 June drop, or a 2012 August GAC, then 2016 will fall right through the bottom...