Until today I’ve merely followed posting on this thread. First, I haven’t done much work. Second, conditions didn’t strike me as deviating much from the years I’ve been watching MODIS closely (’10-’14).
In that sense I concur with Rubikscube above, “…pretty close to the norm…”. OTOH I agree with JDallen that extent data and maps do not tell much about the quality of the ice. Through the last five years I’ve often commented on quality and illustrated that with detailed ‘CAD-counts’ at pixel-scale (250x250 m). In that context, I repeat Epiphyte’s words “…this year, subjectively, at least, something is very different…”.
It is not exactly clear to me in what sense. But I did do some work, so at least I can humbly weigh in.
I took out my visual assessment for day 109, april 2010/-11/-12 and did the same for 2015. To be clear, the assessment concentrates on the CAB and it’s five peripheral seas, the CA and Baffin Bay. The only two MODIS tiles that do stand out against these former years are those covering the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and the adjacent parts of the CAB (r05c02/-03). Break-up within extensive leads is worse than ’12. It should be reminded that Feb ’13 also showed this pattern, but the effect in April is probably much stronger, like Epiphyte supposes.
Since day 109, nothing has essentially changed the outcome of that assessment. The present low extent is a fringe-matter and doesn't tell much about the coming melt.
Summarizing, I still have no clue whether this summer will bring a ‘07/’12 cliffhanger or a ‘13/’14 ‘good for the Polar Bear’-year. It is too early to tell. On 9 out of 11 MODIS-tiles, there’s no indication that the coming season will be particularly worse than ‘13/’14.
Neven calls for a “cold start for melt-pond May”. I don’t see that reflected in the Climate Reanalyzer forecasts. Maybe he refers to the +80N mean temp (DMI), which seems to cross the climatic mean into negative anomaly soon. Like it has for several years around day 130. I agree with Ktonine that interpreting DMI graphs is very difficult. The +80N parallel covers about 4Mkm2, mostly matching the CAB-area. Like JDallen, I’ve been expressing a sense that “…poorer ice conditions could produce lower temperatures…”. Most pronounced in summer ’13, when fragmentation was highest in the record.
I could go on forwarding several conditions that might influence the coming melt. But as has often been stated, weather will decide. I am very interested what the Pacific teleconnection may present (PDO, ENSO).