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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3550 on: July 08, 2023, 08:22:24 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,554,907 KM2 as at 07-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 18k, 60 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 78k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.49 million km2, 1.92 million km2 (18.4%) less than the 10 year average of 10.42 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 125 days this year

- AREA is  2,343 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,985 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,671 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,613 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,365 k (19.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,798 k (22.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,087 k LESS than 1980

- On average  79.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 72 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.55 million km2, 4.6 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.71 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.89 million KM2, 70%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4 million KM2, 48% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.27 million km2, 1.89 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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HapHazard

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3551 on: July 08, 2023, 09:39:14 PM »
Antarctica seems to be throwing in the towel.
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3552 on: July 08, 2023, 10:28:20 PM »
This is what https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ has to say about it in their June monthly update

The research is focused on this year. No reference to the huge annual variations in sea ice over the last 10 years.
This month they have not included the standard monthly averages graph that includes the long-term linear trend. Maybe because it looks so wrong?

Antarctic extent remains low
Quote
The dramatically slower pace of ice growth through the 2023 autumn and early winter is a topic of intense research. Among the most likely causes are warmer ocean conditions in the polar water layer. This layer of colder, slightly less saline seawater is usually at or very near the freezing point. A small temperature increase, from mixing upward from deeper ocean layers or from warmer ocean surface water to the north, could slow the formation of new sea ice during autumn and winter. Under typical conditions, the polar water, a layer of several tens of meters thickness in the sea ice regions of both poles, is both slightly fresher and less dense than the underlying ocean waters, which leads to strong stratification of the topmost waters. However, if warm ocean water from just north of the surface extent of the cold water has been mixed into the polar water, it reduces this density contrast, and this reduces the stratification and allows warmth to more easily mix upward from below, further increasing the heat in the upper ocean layer and prolonging the period of reduced ice growth.

A further contributing factor for the southern Bellingshausen Sea region is the persistently strong and eastward position of the Amundsen Sea Low. This is driving warm winds southward along the western Peninsula, and across the Peninsula (Figure 6b), in both cases suppressing ice growth, and moving ice in the northwestern Weddell eastward.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3553 on: July 09, 2023, 01:35:33 AM »
@  haphazard   don't give up .... yet   ..... max is not usually until  18th September

interstitial

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3554 on: July 09, 2023, 03:49:34 AM »
Wow this is what record ocean temperatures look like.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3555 on: July 09, 2023, 07:54:21 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,727,176 KM2 as at 08-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 154k, 87 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10.78 million km2, 1.80 million km2, (14.3%) less than the 10 year average of 12.58 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 141 days this year

- Extent is  1,917 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,747 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,315 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,516 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,550 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,795 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  79.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 72 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.06 million km2, 1.95 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.73 million km2, 5.28 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.33 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.95 million KM2, 59% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.08 million KM2, 23% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3556 on: July 09, 2023, 01:03:16 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,612,673 KM2 as at 08-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 58k, 25 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 83k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.55 million km2, 1.95 million km2 (18.5%) less than the 10 year average of 10.50 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 126 days this year

- AREA is  2,482 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  2,028 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,730 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,653 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,370 k (19.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,818 k (22.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,180 k LESS than 1980

- On average  80.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 71 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.61 million km2, 4.55 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.63 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.92 million KM2, 73%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.97 million KM2, 51% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.24 million km2, 1.92 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3557 on: July 10, 2023, 01:38:16 AM »
this was always going to hurt sooner or later.....

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tempindex.jpg

kiwichick16

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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3559 on: July 10, 2023, 01:50:47 AM »
re climatereanalyzer  ...... click on SH  air temps    ...... parts of Antarctica look like 20 degrees C above average

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3560 on: July 10, 2023, 06:52:31 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,952,120 KM2 as at 09-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 225k, 153 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
Just a blip or a sign of things to come?

- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.00 million km2, 1.65 million km2, (13.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.65 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 142 days this year

- Extent is  1,697 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,563 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,228 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,362 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,398 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,646 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  79.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 71 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.21 million km2, 1.80 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.95 million km2, 5.05 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.26 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.8 million KM2, 55% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.97 million KM2, 22% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3561 on: July 10, 2023, 07:25:17 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,722,212 KM2 as at 09-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 110k, 31 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 79k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.66 million km2, 1.92 million km2 (18.1%) less than the 10 year average of 10.58 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 127 days this year

- AREA is  2,582 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,996 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,670 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,665 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,300 k (19.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,792 k (22.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,129 k LESS than 1980

- On average  80.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 70 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.72 million km2, 4.44 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.55 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.89 million KM2, 74%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.86 million KM2, 51% above the average. This was in 2007, and was pretty much an outlier
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.27 million km2, 1.89 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Eco-Author

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3562 on: July 10, 2023, 07:53:55 PM »
I watched the video above noting all the research into the ultra-cold/salty bottom water and wanted to just make note that years ago it was found Ice shelves act like a huge pump, warmer water flows under the ice sheet to then be thrust back out at what I only recall as large volume...  As these shelves break down, I have to assume so does the ocean circulation and would have to guess that even cracking weakens the soundness of these pumps??  30% less of this bottom water gone... wonder if this correlates to the amount of ice shelves gone but likely not yet.  Your posts on Global Ice lead me here... Thanks for your consistent effort! <3 
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Phil.

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3563 on: July 10, 2023, 08:16:28 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,952,120 KM2 as at 09-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 225k, 153 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
Just a blip or a sign of things to come?

At this time of year there's usually an oscillatory behavior so I suspect a blip.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3564 on: July 11, 2023, 01:47:27 PM »
It looks like the very high extent gain on the 9th July was likely a blip...

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,017,532 KM2 as at 10-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 65k, 5 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.07 million km2, 1.66 million km2, (13.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.72 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 143 days this year

- Extent is  1,726 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,553 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,237 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,431 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,416 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,657 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  80.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 70 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.21 million km2, 1.80 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.02 million km2, 4.99 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.19 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.8 million KM2, 56% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.85 million KM2, 21% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3565 on: July 11, 2023, 07:03:15 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,813,469 KM2 as at 10-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 91k, 24 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 67k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.75 million km2, 1.89 million km2 (17.8%) less than the 10 year average of 10.64 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 128 days this year

- AREA is  2,667 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,935 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,600 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,693 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,251 k (18.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,778 k (22.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,128 k LESS than 1980

- On average  81.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 69 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.81 million km2, 4.35 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.48 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.86 million KM2, 75%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.71 million KM2, 50% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.30 million km2, 1.86 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3566 on: July 12, 2023, 01:41:30 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,093,518 KM2 as at 11-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 76k, 13 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.14 million km2, 1.64 million km2, (12.8%) less than the 10 year average of 12.79 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 144 days this year

- Extent is  1,789 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,567 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,197 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,496 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,429 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,656 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  80.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 69 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.22 million km2, 1.79 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.09 million km2, 4.91 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.13 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.79 million KM2, 57% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.66 million KM2, 17% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3567 on: July 12, 2023, 02:48:16 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,890,445 KM2 as at 11-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 77k, 23 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.83 million km2, 1.87 million km2 (17.5%) less than the 10 year average of 10.70 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 129 days this year

- AREA is  2,707 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,866 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,521 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,719 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,214 k (18.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,770 k (21.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,035 k LESS than 1980

- On average  81.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 68 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.89 million km2, 4.27 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.43 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.84 million KM2, 76%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.6 million KM2, 48% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.32 million km2, 1.84 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kassy

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3568 on: July 12, 2023, 04:51:47 PM »
- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record which is for the 81th day this year
(reply 3202)

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record , which makes  sea ice daily extent lowest for 61 days this year
(reply 3159)

The final days as first earlier this year.

Good i checked because i rembered area as 67 (a third made a whole number). Very easy mnemonic but the number looked different with glasses on.  ::)

So current runs are day 48 for AREA and day 83 for Extent.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3569 on: July 13, 2023, 11:53:50 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,172,202 KM2 as at 12-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 79k, 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 65k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.22 million km2, 1.63 million km2, (12.7%) less than the 10 year average of 12.85 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 145 days this year

- Extent is  1,848 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,574 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,214 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,445 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,444 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,664 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  80.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 68 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.23 million km2, 1.77 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.17 million km2, 4.83 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.06 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.77 million KM2, 58% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.61 million KM2, 18% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3570 on: July 13, 2023, 05:18:25 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  9,958,855 KM2 as at 12-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 68k, 19 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 8.90 million km2, 1.85 million km2 (17.2%) less than the 10 year average of 10.75 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 130 days this year

- AREA is  2,696 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,813 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,435 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,732 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,192 k (18.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,766 k (21.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,973 k LESS than 1980

- On average  81.9% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 67 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.96 million km2, 4.2 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.38 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.82 million KM2, 77%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.51 million KM2, 48% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.34 million km2, 1.82 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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interstitial

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3571 on: July 13, 2023, 10:08:31 PM »
Gerontocrat
Any chance you can show the sea ice area graph for 2011? According to the single day data Antarctic ice was particularly low that year and I wonder if that was true much of the year or just a short term fluke. My current speculation is that such an unusual low in Antarctic ice (and the associated high water temperatures) might precede an unusual low in Arctic ice the following year. Thanks

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3572 on: July 14, 2023, 09:50:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,275,370 KM2 as at 13-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 103k, 28 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 75k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.33 million km2, 1.60 million km2, (12.4%) less than the 10 year average of 12.93 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 146 days this year

- Extent is  1,831 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,587 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,167 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,391 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,429 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,631 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  81.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 67 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.26 million km2, 1.74 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.28 million km2, 4.73 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.99 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.74 million KM2, 58% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.57 million KM2, 20% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3573 on: July 14, 2023, 07:52:23 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,057,498 KM2 as at 13-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 99k, 60 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.00 million km2, 1.79 million km2 (16.6%) less than the 10 year average of 10.79 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 131 days this year

- AREA is  2,602 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,723 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,324 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,696 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,171 k (17.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,718 k (21.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,934 k LESS than 1980

- On average  82.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 66 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.06 million km2, 4.1 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.34 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.76 million KM2, 75%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.42 million KM2, 46% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.40 million km2, 1.76 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3574 on: July 15, 2023, 10:34:22 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,352,188 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 77k, 20 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.40 million km2, 1.58 million km2, (12.2%) less than the 10 year average of 12.98 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 147 days this year

- Extent is  1,847 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,553 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,132 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,336 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,429 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,603 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  81.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 66 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.28 million km2, 1.73 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.35 million km2, 4.65 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.93 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.73 million KM2, 59% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.48 million KM2, 19% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3575 on: July 15, 2023, 05:53:46 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,157,739 KM2 as at 14-Jul-2023

Definite signs of accelerating daily sea ice area gains can be seen. However, with on average over 80 percent of sea ice area gains from min to max completed, it is still difficult to not see a record low maximum. (At the same time an uptick in Arctic sea ice area losses are apparent. Coincidence, or is the transition from La Nina to Neutral ENSO to El Nino having an influence?).

- Area gain on this day 100k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.10 million km2, 1.73 million km2 (16.0%) less than the 10 year average of 10.83 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 132 days this year

- AREA is  2,465 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,654 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,255 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,623 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,144 k (17.4%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,661 k (20.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,844 k LESS than 1980

- On average  82.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 65 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.16 million km2, 4 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.3 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.7 million KM2, 74%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.39 million KM2, 47% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.46 million km2, 1.70 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3576 on: July 16, 2023, 05:58:43 AM »
@  gerontocrat    .... SH  now past the Chronological midpoint of Winter ..... daylight hours now starting to increase ..... 1.8 minutes per day at Invercargill for example  ( city on south coast of South Island of NZ )

Sunrise at Scott Base expected 19th August  2023  ..... still a month away

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3577 on: July 16, 2023, 07:29:19 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,485,062 KM2 as at 15-Jul-2023

Another day with daily extent gain more than 50% above the average. Is a trend setting in?
Climatereanalyzer data suggests maybe not. Time will tell.


- Extent gain on this day 133k, 71 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.54 million km2, 1.51 million km2, (11.6%) less than the 10 year average of 13.05 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 148 days this year

- Extent is  1,802 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,488 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,036 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,270 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,365 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,528 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  82.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 65 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.35 million km2, 1.65 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.49 million km2, 4.52 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.87 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.65 million KM2, 58% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.47 million KM2, 21% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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« Last Edit: July 16, 2023, 03:20:07 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3578 on: July 16, 2023, 03:33:40 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,294,812 KM2 as at 15-Jul-2023

Sea ice area gains rapidly accelerating, with the daily area gain on Nico Sun's graph showing an even higher gain.

- Area gain on this day 137k, 100 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.23 million km2, 1.63 million km2 (15.0%) less than the 10 year average of 10.86 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 133 days this year

- AREA is  2,292 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,579 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,166 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,480 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,063 k (16.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,563 k (19.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,765 k LESS than 1980

- On average  82.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 64 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.29 million km2, 3.86 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.26 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.6 million KM2, 71%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.34 million KM2, 48% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.56 million km2, 1.60 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3579 on: July 16, 2023, 04:12:22 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): Regional seas data and graphs

BellinghausenAmundsen Sea-  Currently 15th lowest in the satellite record and well below the 2010's average. Daily changes highly variable.

Ross Sea - Currently 4th lowest in the satellite record and recently showing sea ice area losses.

West Pacific Sea - Currently 4th lowest in the satellite record, After about a month of strong gains recently showing sea ice area losses.

see next post

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3580 on: July 16, 2023, 04:22:20 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): Last 2 Regional seas data and graphs

Indian Ocean region-  Currently lowest in the satellite record for the 43rd day this year. Currently strong gains.

Weddell Sea  - Still lowest in the satellite record, for 83 days this year. Recently showing strong sea ice area gains.

The Weddell and Ross Seas are the two largest regions, and will most likely determine the final outcome of the 2023 maximum. With the Austral winter solstice nearly 4 weeks behind us, and on average 83% of Antractic sea ice area gains from min to max completed, perhaps the potential for a very large increase in sea ice area is limited.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2023, 11:27:25 AM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3581 on: July 17, 2023, 11:38:54 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,708,452 KM2 as at 16-Jul-2023

This is starting to look like it could develop into a significant sea ice recovery

- Extent gain on this day 223k, 160 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 63k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.76 million km2, 1.35 million km2, (10.3%) less than the 10 year average of 13.11 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 149 days this year

- Extent is  1,611 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,306 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,876 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,145 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,196 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,378 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  82.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 64 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.51 million km2, 1.49 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.71 million km2, 4.3 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.8 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.49 million KM2, 53% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.45 million KM2, 23% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3582 on: July 17, 2023, 07:58:22 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,475,721 KM2 as at 16-Jul-2023

If sea ice area gains continue at this rate, which they are likely to do for at least the next few days, then a record low minimum maximum is at risk.

- Area gain on this day 181k, 144 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.42 million km2, 1.48 million km2 (13.6%) less than the 10 year average of 10.90 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 134 days this year

- AREA is  2,074 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,487 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,050 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,284 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,966 k (15.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,419 k (18.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,667 k LESS than 1980

- On average  83.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 63 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.48 million km2, 3.68 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.23 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.46 million KM2, 65%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.28 million KM2, 47% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.70 million km2, 1.46 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3583 on: July 18, 2023, 09:17:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,856,858 KM2 as at 17-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 148k, 87 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 11.91 million km2, 1.26 million km2, (9.6%) less than the 10 year average of 13.17 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 150 days this year

- Extent is  1,516 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,203 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,770 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,163 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,110 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,278 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  82.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 63 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.60 million km2, 1.41 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.86 million km2, 4.15 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.74 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.41 million KM2, 51% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.38 million KM2, 23% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3584 on: July 18, 2023, 07:09:22 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,661,043 KM2 as at 17-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 185k, 143 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 42k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.60 million km2, 1.34 million km2 (12.3%) less than the 10 year average of 10.94 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 135 days this year

- AREA is  1,868 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,399 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,958 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,105 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,824 k (14.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,271 k (17.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,517 k LESS than 1980

- On average  83.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 62 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.66 million km2, 3.5 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.18 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.31 million KM2, 60%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.23 million KM2, 48% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.85 million km2, 1.31 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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HapHazard

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3585 on: July 18, 2023, 09:00:43 PM »
I posted that the Antarctic was throwing in the towel... then it pulls a Rocky. haha
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kiwichick16

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3586 on: July 19, 2023, 08:14:59 AM »
@  haphazard    .... certainly looking better .... the ice won't have much time to solidify though ...... for example daylight hours are lengthening at our local weather station (Dunedin Airport ) by 2 minutes each day...... sunrise at Scott Base is due on the 19th August ...... 31 days from today

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3587 on: July 19, 2023, 01:34:10 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,799,877 KM2 as at 18-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 139k, 92 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.74 million km2, 1.25 million km2 (11.4%) less than the 10 year average of 10.99 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 136 days this year

- AREA is  1,715 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,400 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,923 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,011 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,725 k (13.8%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,178 k (16.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,412 k LESS than 1980

- On average  83.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 61 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.8 million km2, 3.36 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.14 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.22 million KM2, 57%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.16 million KM2, 48% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.94 million km2, 1.22 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3588 on: July 19, 2023, 02:53:25 PM »
A commentary by https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

But no discussion on the chances of this change being temporary or permanent. The Antarctic remains mostly "The Great Unknown" (but at least a known unknown).


Antarctic sea ice extent

Quote
Sea ice surrounding the Antarctic continent continues to be exceptionally low. Antarctic ice extent as of mid-July is more than 2.6 million square kilometers (1.00 million square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, an area nearly as large as Argentina or the combined areas of Texas, California, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. It is 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 square miles) below the previous record low extent for the date, set in 2022 (Figure 4a). Low ice extent is present nearly everywhere, but particularly in the northern Weddell Sea, western Ross Sea, and southern Bellingshausen Sea (Figure 4b). Above average extent is prevalent in the Amundsen Sea.

The research community has been discussing the causes for the sudden turnabout in Antarctic sea ice extent, from a weakly positive linear trend from 1978 to 2015 to a strongly negative trend since 2016; and the events of 2022 and 2023 have garnered much attention. Many recent studies point to changing conditions in the upper ocean layer. Warm water from the north has mixed into this layer, which tends to increase the stratification of the ocean. This appears to coincide with when sea ice went from record high extents to low extents beginning in September 2016, and still lower extents in 2023.

Further reading:- Eayrs, C., X. Li, M. N. Raphael, and D. M. Holland. 2021. Rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in recent years hints at future change. Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00768-3
But it is paywalled, dammit

Abstract
Quote
Following years of record highs, an unexpected and precipitous reduction in Antarctic sea-ice extent started in 2016. This decline, lasting three years, was the most pronounced of the satellite era, equivalent to 30 years of sea-ice loss in the Arctic. Here, we synthesize recent work showing this sea-ice reduction probably resulted from the interaction of a decades-long ocean warming trend and an early spring southward advection of atmospheric heat, with an exceptional weakening of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude westerlies in late spring. We discuss what this event reveals about the underlying atmospheric and oceanic dynamical processes that control sea ice in the region and the ways in which shifting climate variability and remote forcings, especially from the tropics, influence these processes. Knowledge gaps show that further work is needed to improve future projections of changes in one of the largest seasonal phenomena on the planet.
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Ktb

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3589 on: July 19, 2023, 03:44:59 PM »
all yours gero
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3590 on: July 19, 2023, 08:19:48 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3591 on: July 20, 2023, 06:33:54 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,963,329 KM2 as at 19-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 28k, 44 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.01 million km2, 1.31 million km2, (9.8%) less than the 10 year average of 13.32 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 152 days this year

- Extent is  1,555 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,423 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,786 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,272 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,109 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,319 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  83.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 61 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.55 million km2, 1.45 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 13.96 million km2, 4.04 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.59 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.45 million KM2, 56% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.09 million KM2, 19% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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grixm

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3592 on: July 20, 2023, 02:12:23 PM »
Two days of daily losses in area again

gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3593 on: July 20, 2023, 07:18:03 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,891,587 KM2 as at 19-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 92k, 44 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.83 million km2, 1.20 million km2 (10.9%) less than the 10 year average of 11.04 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 137 days this year

- AREA is  1,603 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,463 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,959 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,021 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,673 k (13.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,134 k (16.4%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,299 k LESS than 1980

- On average  84.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 60 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.89 million km2, 3.27 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.09 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.18 million KM2, 56%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.07 million KM2, 47% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.98 million km2, 1.18 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3594 on: July 21, 2023, 06:55:22 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,033,470 KM2 as at 20-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 70k, 2 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 72k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.08 million km2, 1.31 million km2, (9.8%) less than the 10 year average of 13.39 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 153 days this year

- Extent is  1,644 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,546 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,782 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,303 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,111 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,316 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  84.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 60 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.55 million km2, 1.46 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.03 million km2, 3.97 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.52 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.46 million KM2, 58% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3 million KM2, 19% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3595 on: July 21, 2023, 01:09:42 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  10,969,711 KM2 as at 20-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 78k, 23 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 55k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.91 million km2, 1.18 million km2 (10.7%) less than the 10 year average of 11.09 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 138 days this year

- AREA is  1,525 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,539 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,025 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,067 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,630 k (12.9%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,114 k (16.2%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,227 k LESS than 1980

- On average  84.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 59 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 10.97 million km2, 3.19 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.03 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.16 million KM2, 57%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.97 million KM2, 46% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 13.00 million km2, 1.16 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3596 on: July 22, 2023, 09:57:07 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,156,502 KM2 as at 21-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 123k, 52 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 71k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.21 million km2, 1.26 million km2, (9.3%) less than the 10 year average of 13.47 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 154 days this year

- Extent is  1,627 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,530 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,733 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,226 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,064 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,260 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  84.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 59 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.60 million km2, 1.40 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.16 million km2, 3.85 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.45 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.4 million KM2, 57% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.98 million KM2, 22% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3597 on: July 22, 2023, 05:15:33 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,003,735 KM2 as at 21-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 34k, 34 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 68k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.94 million km2, 1.22 million km2 (10.9%) less than the 10 year average of 11.16 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 139 days this year

- AREA is  1,504 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,661 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,144 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,161 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,670 k (13.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,147 k (16.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,264 k LESS than 1980

- On average  85.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 58 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11 million km2, 3.16 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 1.97 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.19 million KM2, 60%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.85 million KM2, 45% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.97 million km2, 1.19 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3598 on: July 23, 2023, 10:03:09 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,207,447 KM2 as at 22-Jul-2023

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 35 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 86k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.26 million km2, 1.29 million km2, (9.5%) less than the 10 year average of 13.55 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 155 days this year

- Extent is  1,648 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,571 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,791 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,235 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,108 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,282 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  85.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 58 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.57 million km2, 1.44 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.21 million km2, 3.8 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 2.36 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.44 million KM2, 61% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.92 million KM2, 24% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high
___________________________________________________________
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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area
« Reply #3599 on: July 23, 2023, 07:55:17 PM »
NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,006,432 KM2 as at 22-Jul-2023

- Area gain on this day 3k, 72 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 75k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 9.95 million km2, 1.29 million km2 (11.5%) less than the 10 year average of 11.23 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 140 days this year

- AREA is  1,536 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,813 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,294 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,277 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,728 k (13.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,219 k (16.8%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,272 k LESS than 1980

- On average  85.6% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 57 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.01 million km2, 3.15 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 1.89 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.26 million KM2, 67%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.7 million KM2, 43% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.90 million km2, 1.26 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)