Antarctic Sea Ice Extent and Area

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): Post 3 of 3 - A look at the regional seas...

Like most people, I was expecting Antarctic Sea Ice to recover this year after the record low minumum in late February. Overall, it has not happened, but there are variations between the regional seas.

I attach the sea ice area graph for each sea, I also attach for each sea a projection of the 2023 annual daily average sea ice area using actual data to August 4 and the 10 year average sea ice daily change from now to year end.

The Weddell Sea (The largest) has completely ignored the script for sea ice recovery. Instead sea late April sea ice area has been lowest in the satellite record - for 103 days to date. At the moment the projection of the annual daily average is a;so for a record low average.

I also attach the map of the Antarctic Seas and NSIDC's  current map of sea ice concentration.

click images to enlarge

[HapHazard]

Great stuff, Gero!

[gerontocrat]

Great stuff, Gero!

Thanks HapHazard, I am glad it was worth the effort.

Gero

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,884,388 KM2 as at 05-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 48k, 8 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.93 million km2, 1.46 million km2, (10.1%) less than the 10 year average of 14.39 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 169 days this year

- Extent is  1,513 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,588 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,970 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,713 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,344 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,507 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  90.5% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 44 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.40 million km2, 1.60 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.88 million km2, 3.12 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.52 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.6 million KM2, 106% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.12 million KM2, 39% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,768,507 KM2 as at 05-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 43k, 3 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.71 million km2, 1.29 million km2 (10.7%) less than the 10 year average of 11.99 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 154 days this year

- AREA is  1,704 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,516 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,899 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,486 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,764 k (13.0%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,263 k (16.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,444 k LESS than 1980

- On average  91.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 43 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.77 million km2, 2.39 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 1.13 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.26 million KM2, 111%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.96 million KM2, 73% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.90 million km2, 1.26 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[kiwichick16]

@  gero  .... probably only 2 weeks before the freeze starts slowing down  ......sunrise at Scott base is expected on the 19th August

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,903,171 KM2 as at 06-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 19k, 26 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.95 million km2, 1.48 million km2, (10.3%) less than the 10 year average of 14.44 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 170 days this year

- Extent is  1,518 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,693 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,984 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,732 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,377 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,527 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  90.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 43 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.38 million km2, 1.63 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.9 million km2, 3.1 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.47 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.63 million KM2, 111% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 2.05 million KM2, 39% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,811,234 KM2 as at 06-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 43k, 4 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.75 million km2, 1.29 million km2 (10.7%) less than the 10 year average of 12.04 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 155 days this year

- AREA is  1,721 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,575 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  1,949 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,519 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,790 k (13.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,268 k (16.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,540 k LESS than 1980

- On average  91.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 42 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.81 million km2, 2.35 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 1.08 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.26 million KM2, 116%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.95 million KM2, 80% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.90 million km2, 1.26 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,902,590 KM2 as at 07-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 1k, 65 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 64k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.95 million km2, 1.55 million km2, (10.7%) less than the 10 year average of 14.50 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 171 days this year

- Extent is  1,543 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,782 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,050 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,734 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,425 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,578 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  91.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 42 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.31 million km2, 1.69 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.9 million km2, 3.1 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.41 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.69 million KM2, 120% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.97 million KM2, 40% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,867,738 KM2 as at 07-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 57k, 8 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.81 million km2, 1.28 million km2 (10.6%) less than the 10 year average of 12.09 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 156 days this year

- AREA is  1,701 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,599 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,001 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,510 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,796 k (13.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,259 k (16.0%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,627 k LESS than 1980

- On average  92.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 41 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.87 million km2, 2.29 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 1.04 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.26 million KM2, 121%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.97 million KM2, 90% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.90 million km2, 1.26 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,919,406 KM2 as at 08-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 17k, 65 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 82k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.97 million km2, 1.61 million km2, (11.1%) less than the 10 year average of 14.58 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 172 days this year

- Extent is  1,535 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,774 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,119 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,683 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,451 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,635 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  91.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 41 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.25 million km2, 1.76 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.92 million km2, 3.09 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.33 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be  above the average by 1.76 million KM2 or 133%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.78 million KM2, 34% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[oren]

I continue to be amazed by the poor showing of Antarctic sea ice this year. Every day just makes it worse.

[Renerpho]

I continue to be amazed by the poor showing of Antarctic sea ice this year. Every day just makes it worse.

The longer it takes, the more excited I get for the melting season. Daylight is about to return. I'm still not sure if I just expect the negative anomalies to continue into the summer, or to swing to the opposite direction (temporarily).

[MrGreeny]

41 days out from maximum... this ain't looking good for what's about to come this summer down south.

I'm going to give it until day 30 and then I will be certain that things aren't going to get better. I mean even now I am fairly certain that it won't get better.

We'll see...

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,884,968 KM2 as at 08-Aug-2023

- Area gain on this day 17k, 26 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.83 million km2, 1.31 million km2 (10.8%) less than the 10 year average of 12.13 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 157 days this year

- AREA is  1,700 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,617 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,087 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,531 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,815 k (13.2%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,282 k (16.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,583 k LESS than 1980

- On average  92.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 40 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.88 million km2, 2.27 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.99 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.28 million KM2, 129%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.98 million KM2, 100% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.88 million km2, 1.28 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

I continue to be amazed by the poor showing of Antarctic sea ice this year. Every day just makes it worse.

Or worser....

[kassy]

It´s meandering in the right bracket though. 

PS: Max area gain...was that 2007? If so they were quite close on the date.

[gerontocrat]

It´s meandering in the right bracket though. 

PS: Max area gain...was that 2007? If so they were quite close on the date.

It was. It finished 2nd highest in the satellite record, 2014 was 1st.

& here it is on a graph

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,931,128 KM2 as at 09-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 12k, 44 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 12.98 million km2, 1.66 million km2, (11.3%) less than the 10 year average of 14.64 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 173 days this year

- Extent is  1,651 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,795 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,103 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,682 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,485 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,684 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  92.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 40 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.20 million km2, 1.80 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.93 million km2, 3.07 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.27 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be  above the average by 1.8 million KM2 or 142%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.66 million KM2, 31% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,876,933 KM2 as at 09-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 8k, 39 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.82 million km2, 1.35 million km2 (11.1%) less than the 10 year average of 12.16 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 158 days this year

- AREA is  1,707 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,625 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,203 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,554 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,865 k (13.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,313 k (16.3%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,645 k LESS than 1980

- On average  92.7% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 39 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.88 million km2, 2.28 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.96 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.32 million KM2, 137%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.95 million KM2, 102% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.84 million km2, 1.32 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[RoxTheGeologist]

I continue to be amazed by the poor showing of Antarctic sea ice this year. Every day just makes it worse.

Either the ocean or the atmosphere heat transfer has undergone a step change. Either less heat is being lost or more heat is being added to the surface of the ocean. Maybe both.

Is it from less heat loss? The atmosphere hasn't changed that much, with a few ppm of CO2.

So what happened to the ocean? and is the change still increasing? If it's still ongoing and the added heat grows, we will see a very early maximum. If it is in equilibrium, then we will see a similar maximum date to previous years.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,965,955 KM2 as at 10-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 35k, 10 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.02 million km2, 1.65 million km2, (11.2%) less than the 10 year average of 14.67 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 174 days this year

- Extent is  1,761 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,853 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,048 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,631 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,489 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,684 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  92.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 39 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.21 million km2, 1.79 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 14.97 million km2, 3.04 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.25 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be  above the average by 1.79 million KM2 or 144%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.6 million KM2, 28% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[FishOutofWater]

Rox, there's a wind pattern of warm northerly winds blowing into the eastern side of the Weddell sea and cold southerly winds blowing offshore west of the Antarctic peninsula. These weather patterns are locked in with large sea surface temperature anomalies.

There's a huge positive ocean heat anomaly south of New Zealand that is helping to lock in a Rossby wave pattern around Antarctica.

So the oceans have more heat and more heat is welling up along the northern ice edge and the atmosphere is locking in with the ocean heat. Three years of La Niña tightened up the southern ocean winds and currents welling up more somewhat warm intermediate water melting more ice than normal.

So the answer is all of the above. That's how you get such a large anomaly.

[gerontocrat]

On FishOutofWater's analysis above....

Which to me raises 2 immediate questions...
- yes, causing a large anomaly, but such a large anomaly for such a sustained period?
- What next? Will El Nino weaken the circumpolar wind & ocean currents sending sea ice back towards more average levels on the next 12 months? Or has this event broken the climate mould?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,843,114 KM2 as at 10-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 34k, 54 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.78 million km2, 1.40 million km2 (11.5%) less than the 10 year average of 12.18 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 159 days this year

- AREA is  1,732 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,664 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,326 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,578 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  1,941 k (14.1%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,367 k (16.7%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,782 k LESS than 1980

- On average  92.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 38 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.84 million km2, 2.32 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.94 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.37 million KM2, 146%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.91 million KM2, 102% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2020, just 33% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.78 million km2, 1.37 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): Here and in the next post are the regional graphs (clockwise from the Weddell Sea onwards) + the map.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average): Here are the last 2 regional graphs  + the map.

[gerontocrat]

& from Nico Sun the one-day data from https://cryospherecomputing.com/

"Look upon thy Works, you Mighty Climate Deniers and Fossil Fuel Emperors, and despair.
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level ocean stretches far away."

apologies to Percy Bysshe Shelley

One-day Antarctic sea ice area is just over 150k below the 5-day Antarctic sea ice area. Freezing season?

[Phil.]

My guess for the poll is looking good!

[Sublime_Rime]

Wow, things are getting bad when Gero starts quoting Ozymandias!

[kiwichick16]

@  SR  ..... i suspect Shelley would approve

[kiwichick16]

Are we seeing the effects of the slowdown of AABW  formation leaving more heat behind , rather than burying it in the deep ocean

[Tigertown]

My calendar says August, but it is looking like October (growth-wise) for the sea ice around Antarctica.

[kiwichick16]

So currently one area is above the 2010's average ..... every thing is below average and some are declining in area  .....and there is only 3 weeks of Winter left.

Sunrise is due at Scott Base on the 18th August   ..... they are expecting daylight for 23 minutes.....on the 19th they are expecting 1 hour and 50 minutes .... on the 20th 2 hours and 34 minutes...... daylight hours increase rapidly once they get going

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,021,360 KM2 as at 11-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 55k, 19 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.07 million km2, 1.63 million km2, (11.1%) less than the 10 year average of 14.70 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 175 days this year

- Extent is  1,773 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,832 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  1,951 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,579 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,476 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,661 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  92.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 38 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.23 million km2, 1.77 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.02 million km2, 2.98 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.21 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be  above the average by 1.77 million KM2 or 147%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.52 million KM2, 26% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,802,478 KM2 as at 11-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 41k, 64 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.74 million km2, 1.47 million km2 (12.0%) less than the 10 year average of 12.21 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 160 days this year

- AREA is  1,778 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,687 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,440 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,627 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,023 k (14.6%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,436 k (17.1%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,821 k LESS than 1980

- On average  93.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 37 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.8 million km2, 2.36 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.92 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.44 million KM2, 157%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.9 million KM2, 107% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2020, just 31% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.72 million km2, 1.44 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[kiwichick16]

Antarctic sea ice area now 6 times the area of New Zealand ,  less than previous record low.

NZ = 268,000  square kms

[RoxTheGeologist]

Rox, there's a wind pattern of warm northerly winds blowing into the eastern side of the Weddell sea and cold southerly winds blowing offshore west of the Antarctic peninsula. These weather patterns are locked in with large sea surface temperature anomalies.

There's a huge positive ocean heat anomaly south of New Zealand that is helping to lock in a Rossby wave pattern around Antarctica.

So the oceans have more heat and more heat is welling up along the northern ice edge and the atmosphere is locking in with the ocean heat. Three years of La Niña tightened up the southern ocean winds and currents welling up more somewhat warm intermediate water melting more ice than normal.

So the answer is all of the above. That's how you get such a large anomaly.

Thank you! Your insight and predictions of the weather patterns/ocean-atmosphere interaction are always spot on. My question is, how will we tell if it's intensifying? Is the amount of anomalous heat being injected into the system increasing? If it is, I would expect an early maximum indicative that the difference to the average is increasing.

[kiwichick16]

@  rox the Geologist  ..... while obviously  wind and sea temperatures are always variable , that has always been the case.

Ocean temps also have a lag time between as extra added heat is distributed though the deeper water.

However a slowdown in formation of AABW will definitely result in more heat remaining in the Southern ocean , rather than being taken down to the ocean depths and carried off with the oceanic circulation system.
If less AABW is entering the system this will affect the entire global system ...... it could possibly result in warmer water ending up in the Northern Atlantic ...... the slowdown in AABW has been observed since the 1990's, but it may not be reaching the NA yet.

Hopefully more observations will provide answers ...... one thing is for sure ..... increasing melt from Antarctica won't help

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,003,941 KM2 as at 12-Aug-2023

- Extent loss on this day 17k, 74 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.05 million km2, 1.70 million km2, (11.5%) less than the 10 year average of 14.76 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 176 days this year

- Extent is  1,820 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,866 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,012 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,678 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,541 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,738 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  92.8% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 37 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.16 million km2, 1.85 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15 million km2, 3 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.15 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be  above the average by 1.85 million KM2 or 160%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.49 million KM2, 29% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,749,171 KM2 as at 12-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 53k, 75 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.69 million km2, 1.54 million km2 (12.6%) less than the 10 year average of 12.23 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 161 days this year

- AREA is  1,850 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,723 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,559 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,727 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,118 k (15.3%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,514 k (17.6%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  1,998 k LESS than 1980

- On average  93.2% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 36 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.75 million km2, 2.41 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.9 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.51 million KM2, 169%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.92 million KM2, 114% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2020, just 30% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.65 million km2, 1.51 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  15,009,430 KM2 as at 13-Aug-2023

- Extent gain on this day 5k, 41 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 13.06 million km2, 1.74 million km2, (11.8%) less than the 10 year average of 14.80 million km2.

- Extent is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, which makes daily sea ice extent lowest for 177 days this year

- Extent is  1,809 k LESS than 2002
- Extent is  1,864 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  2,077 k LESS than 2018
- Extent is  1,710 k LESS than 2022
- Extent is  2,581 k LESS than the 1980's Average
- Extent is  2,774 k LESS than the 2010's Average

- On average  93.0% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 36 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.12 million km2, 1.89 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________________
On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 15.01 million km2, 3 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 1.11 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum sea ice gains from now need to be above the average by 1.89 million KM2 or 171%
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.52 million KM2, 37% above the average.
A new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore almost certain
___________________________________________________________
Click on image for full-size

[Macalaga]

This seems ridiculous to suggest, but the slowdown in growth of sea ice in the past few weeks might be leading to an early maximum? A few years have hit maximum around September 1st and eye-balling the delta between daily change and linear trend, that date doesn’t look unfeasible.

What a crazy headstart that would bring to the melting season.

[kassy]

It makes sense. That was one of the reasons for me for betting low in the seasonal max poll and yes that would start next season early.

[interstitial]

We are still a month from a more typical maximum. That is a long time for sideways movement.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC ANTARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):  11,738,475 KM2 as at 13-Aug-2023

- Area loss on this day 11k, 43 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10.68 million km2, 1.58 million km2 (12.9%) less than the 10 year average of 12.26 million km2.

- AREA is 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record, with daily sea ice area lowest for the day for 162 days this year

- AREA is  1,888 k LESS than 2016
- AREA is  1,730 k LESS than 2017
- AREA is  2,615 k LESS than 2006
- Area is  1,809 k LESS than 2022
- AREA is  2,189 k (15.7%) LESS than the 1980's Average
- AREA is  2,554 k (17.9%) LESS than the 2010's Average

and  - AREA is  2,175 k LESS than 1980

- On average  93.4% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and on average 35 days to maximum

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 11.74 million km2, 2.42 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 0.86 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.56 million KM2, 180%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 1.97 million KM2, 129% above the average (in 2007).The next highest gain was in 2020, just 31% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore very high
___________________________________________________________
Projections. (Table NSIDC Antarctic-Area-1)
Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 12.60 million km2, 1.56 million km2 below the 2017 record low maximum of 14.16 million km2, and would be 1st lowest in the 45 year satellite record
___________________________________________________________
Click on image  for full-size

[gerontocrat]

We are still a month from a more typical maximum. That is a long time for sideways movement.

That is certainly true, which is why I said - a very low chance. but it exists in the poll thread.

On the one hand, in 4 out of 5 of the regional seas sea ice area is pointing downwards, in the Ross Sea for nearly a month by an extreme amount. Only the BellinghausenAmundsen Sea sea ice area still marches upwards. On the other hand sea ice area could "do a 2007", and roar up to close to the record low maximum. Despite much comment from climate scientists on what's going on down there, it looks to me much more like speculation than anything else.

So here are the regional graphs in this and the next post

[gerontocrat]

& the rest

[gerontocrat]

I wish all the images had lat & long clearly marked in 5 degree intervals as in the Univ Bremen image attached

It helps to see how East Antarctica stretches so much further North than West Antarctica and how far south the embayments of the Weddell and Ross sea reach.

[kiwichick16]

@  interstitial   .... while historically the peak for Antarctic sea ice is a month away, we also had a trend of gradual increase in ice , up till 2014 / 15 ?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/why-is-antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels-despite-global-warming