The arctic going ice couldn't possibly have less to do with the Paris deal. The warming we are feeling now is mostly from GHG emissions from decades ago. GHGs are like a lid on a pot; as the lid gets thicker the stuff in the pot gets warmer, but it takes some time...in this case probably 20-30 years. The warming we have seen so far is primarily from emissions up to 1990, so about 350 ppm.
There is also a serious lag due to ice melting. Stable climate conditions that would lead to zero ice wouldn't result in the change occurring in a single year. It would likely take at minimum a decade. Our current GHG levels are plenty high for an ice free arctic (ocean), but we are in the lag phase.
Of course, we haven't stabilized GHG levels, and plans like the Paris deal only scratch the surface of the necessary solutions. Unfortunately even people who do pay attention to the climate situation are somehow soothed into believing that if only we adopt Paris and then maybe a little more, we will avoid the worst.
It is madness. Worse than pure denial of the entire situation. I'm less bothered by those who think it is all an elite globalist ploy to enslave the masses, than I am by those who engage with the data on a daily basis but come to the conclusion that mild solutions will be sufficient to save civilization. OR for that matter those who think that it is no big deal to change the climate drastically and kill off humanity cuz the earth will bounce back. Are we really going to successfully prevent nuclear war as everything falls apart? Are we really going to successfully decommission the hundreds of nuclear power plants around the world? Even if you aren't bothered by the collapse of civilization and the horrible deaths of billions of people, the possibility of turning the earth into a planet like venus or mars should give you some pause.
The only genuine solution would be for the entire world to embark on creating a global carbon-negative permaculture landscape. Global knowledge sharing could continue but global trade would be reduced to maybe 1% its current volume. Ironically, everyone would be happier and healthier, but this is not an option...lets just adopt Paris, pat ourselves on the back, and when it all starts to burn blame somebody else.
of course you're right, the paris agreement has nothing to do with it because that train has left the station and there is no red signal, i mean ice-less summers in the arctic will happen.
further the paris agreement IMO is better than nothing because it means that slowly (too slowly) those in charge move into the right direction but the agreement as such as it is today is a toothless tiger and will have zero real-live effect while zero is not none, just smaller than 1
the fact that this agreement is mentioned so often makes it even counter productive because it's abused as an excuse and to sooth public opinion.
the agreement as such is useless because there are no means of enforcement, no penalties, no consequences if targets won't be reached and they are already not possible to reach by now.
IMO we should start talking "tacheless" and speak out that fact and ask for more, else they're getting away with it, nothing else than eyewash and keeping people in hope that's in vain, at least in it's current implementation.
now, just to remind the reader, i said above that it's better than nothing and that it's a move into the right direction, hence i'm not AGAINST it but it's not sufficient by far and should not be hyped.
all those acclamation were ok the first few months but now we have to take things a few steps further.
BTW, we've not reached the 2C and ice will be gone for good in summer soon and that will boost temps for sure and it will be abrupt, we gonna witness it most probably.
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