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When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2

2018-2019
12 (17.9%)
2020-2025
21 (31.3%)
2026-2030
13 (19.4%)
2031-2040
15 (22.4%)
2041-2060
2 (3%)
2061-2080
0 (0%)
2081-2099
1 (1.5%)
2100-beyond
3 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: July 27, 2018, 07:46:32 AM

Author Topic: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?  (Read 17232 times)

Wherestheice

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When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 12, 2018, 07:46:32 AM »
This thread is kinda like the one titled "How soon could we go ice free", but I am curious on everyone's thoughts on WHEN exactly the ice will melt to 1 Mil. Km...

Votes up for 15 days, 1 vote per user.
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mostly_lurking

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2018, 08:55:19 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 09:45:19 AM by mostly_lurking »

Sleepy

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2018, 08:57:13 AM »
Since you also asked for thoughts; thinking when we get our next moderate to strong La Nina, so between 2020-2025 was my choice.
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RikW

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2018, 10:25:42 AM »
I go for 2018-2020;

I can't believe this year will be the year, although the ice is falling apart in small parts quickly, the melt season will be too short/ freezing will start soon enough, but based on the graphs/ satelite numbers etc. I think the state of the ice is changing so fast the models overestimate ice-quality and it's much worse than it appears to be.

And even then I think/fear we will reach record low numbers end of august/ in september.

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2018, 10:41:41 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.

Edit made and you can change your vote, i'm guessing you were the vote for 2080-2100, so you can change now. 8)
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mostly_lurking

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2018, 10:44:46 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.

Edit made and you can change your vote, i'm guessing you were the vote for 2080-2100, so you can change now. 8)

Thnx :)  Doesn't seem to let me change at the moment.

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2018, 10:45:59 AM »
I'd prefer a 2023-2027 option :)

5 year increments for the 20's seemed best imo, 2025-2030 would fit your thoughts best id say. ;)
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Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2018, 10:47:33 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.

Edit made and you can change your vote, i'm guessing you were the vote for 2080-2100, so you can change now. 8)

Thnx :)  Doesn't seem to let me change at the moment.

Oh hmm, can you not remove your vote than re-vote?
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Neven

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2018, 10:57:26 AM »
I've edited the poll.

And voted 2030-2040.
Compare, compare, compare

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2018, 10:58:41 AM »
I've edited the poll.

And voted 2030-2040.

Thanks Neven!
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oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2018, 11:07:08 AM »
2025-2030. I would be very surprised if it didn't happen by 2030. I wouldn't be surprised if it came earlier.

Hefaistos

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2018, 11:55:41 AM »
We need to move out of the solar minimum and we need a strong El Nino, I voted 2030-40

Richard Rathbone

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2018, 12:54:19 PM »
Never. Under BAU 2030-2040, but I don't think there's that much BAU left.

Stephan

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2018, 12:58:51 PM »
I expect 0 km² around 2025 ± 2 years. Therefore I chose the bin 2020-2025 for the 1M km² question.

Pmt111500

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2018, 01:21:13 PM »
Went for 2020-2025 to keep the middle finger of the right hand up...year 2022 was a projection before 2017 dissed the statistics and partial mechanism used to concoct the value. Really if the increased cloudiness over arctic can divert some of the oceanic heat accumulated in the tropics to be moved back to Tropics and then Southern hemisphere, this might be off by some tine.
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DavidR

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 02:20:13 AM »
2020 - 2025 : Without a significant reduction in the average volume loss from one year to the next there is little chance of extent surviving beyond 2025.  The average decline in minimum volume has been 440 km^3 / year over the past 20 years, up from 161 km^3 / year over the previous 20 years.  If  that rate of decline continues the minimum volume will be around 1000 km^3 by  2025.

The average minimum over this decade has been 4920 km^3.  I expect that there will be at least one year in the next 8 where the volume minimum will drop sufficiently to take extent below 1M km^3.
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Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2018, 02:26:43 AM »
I voted 2020-2025, but with an El Niño likely developing, and the ice already in a bad state, I wouldn’t be surprised if next year is the “year”.
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Sterks

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2018, 07:43:23 AM »
Yeah I also feel that when the next Super Niño develops we may subsequently have a bad year or bad sequence of years for Arctic ice (superimposed to the gradual decline). 1998 may have started the slide down in the 2000's. Assisted by the super warm 2005 year. 2014-2015 Niño may have triggered the warm Winters of recent...
No vote, no idea when the next Super Niño will come.

Ken Feldman

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2018, 09:03:24 PM »
I went for 2025 - 2030, assuming a 2012 like season (lots of early melt ponds followed by a GAC at exactly the wrong time) after another decade of increased volume losses. 

I think the first ice-free September will be followed by several strong rebound years due to the negative feedbacks associated with ice freezing, so we won't see repeated ice-free Septembers until the late 2030s or 2040s.  By that time, the Laptev will be more like the Atlantic than the Arctic in salinity, allowing more warm Atlantic water to flow into the central Arctic, which will bring too much heat into the Arctic to prevent ice free falls beyond the middle of this century.

litesong

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2018, 02:42:49 AM »
Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
Ah.... an AGW denier who knows the solar TSI will continue...into the foreseeable future/never..... at a subnormal irradiation level, as it has for the last 12+ years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low).

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 04:22:55 AM »
Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
Ah.... an AGW denier who knows the solar TSI will continue...into the foreseeable future/never..... at a subnormal irradiation level, as it has for the last 12+ years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low).

The chances of an ice free arctic not happening till then is probably really low anyways
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Juan C. García

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2018, 04:40:11 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2018, 06:07:19 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.

I'm curious to know why both of you opine that period. Thanks.

Me as well
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Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2018, 06:29:09 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.

I'm curious to know why both of you opine that period. Thanks.

Me as well

My 'guess' is increasing cloudiness and snow cover due to a change in normal past arctic climate/weather from global climate changes .... but I don't like making assumptions or guesses as to what others think or why, so I asked.

Thats also the mainstream view in science. I think its safe to say it could happen next year or 22 years from now.
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miki

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2018, 07:24:35 AM »
Unless some real winter cold kicks in, I don't see how the arctic ice can go on to survive past the summer of 2022. Voted 2020-2025. Thanks, Neven.

slow wing

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2018, 11:06:30 AM »
These polls keep coming up, I thought I just missed voting in one that looked like this.

This is an easy vote as I don't know the answer but the bin 2020-2025 spans 6 years in the near future. That's my choice.

It doesn't look like it is going to be this year, so the 2018-2020 bin only has two potentially realistic years and so can't compete with the 6 years in the second bin. The year 2020 is in both bins so the only year the first bin really has going for it is next year, 2019.

The bins after that are disfavored because the event may well have already happened prior to the years in those bins.


Comment: it looks a little strange to have the bins overlapping by one year. For example, the year  2020 is in both of the first 2 bins. This could have been avoided (and my vote made more difficult) by reducing the second bin to the 5-year interval 2021-25. Similarly, the later bins could be changed to begin in years starting with either a '1' or a '6'.

Also, the units should be km^2, not just km.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 11:19:06 AM by slow wing »

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2018, 12:13:21 PM »
These polls keep coming up, I thought I just missed voting in one that looked like this.

This is an easy vote as I don't know the answer but the bin 2020-2025 spans 6 years in the near future. That's my choice.

It doesn't look like it is going to be this year, so the 2018-2020 bin only has two potentially realistic years and so can't compete with the 6 years in the second bin. The year 2020 is in both bins so the only year the first bin really has going for it is next year, 2019.

The bins after that are disfavored because the event may well have already happened prior to the years in those bins.


Comment: it looks a little strange to have the bins overlapping by one year. For example, the year  2020 is in both of the first 2 bins. This could have been avoided (and my vote made more difficult) by reducing the second bin to the 5-year interval 2021-25. Similarly, the later bins could be changed to begin in years starting with either a '1' or a '6'.

Also, the units should be km^2, not just km.

Done
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #27 on: July 30, 2018, 12:07:24 AM »
“It is getting interesting.”

“Interesting” - is that what you call it when you reach the top of roller coaster, head down the slope at high speed, only to see that ahead of you there is no track?! - that it has been torn down!

As current volume trends continue, we are looking at the first ice free arctic September in 2022-23 plus or minus a few years. Subtract a year for breaking through the 1 million square kilometer “ice free” level.

After that, the wheels come off and we enter free fall. The atmospheric and oceanic circulations are already changing in major ways. Soon that will be dramatic. Not long after that the conditions will be properly described as extreme. And then to use your word - things get “exciting”.

Sadly, I am going to get to live long enough to see us all the way through to a year round ice free arctic. I am not looking forward to that, or to the inevitable droughts, pandemics, deluges, wars, disease, and climate catastrophes that will come with it.

I am only thankful that I will not live long enough to see an ice free Greenland.

I fully expect to die in the foregoing disasters long before then.

Sam

in general one can look at things the way you do but until we see year-round ice-free arctic it will take centuries IMO while ice free Augusts and Septembers are most probable to happen not too far out IMO.

I think a year round ice free Arctic is only a few decades away. We need to recognize that once we get the blue ocean event there will be rapid amounts of warming from the latent heat effect as well as loss of albedo that will inhibit ice from re-freezing. The age of ice in the Arctic is coming to an end.

I don't know when, but once it happens at all it happens every year for centuries (millenia?).

litesong

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #28 on: July 30, 2018, 12:38:18 AM »
Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
Ah.... an AGW denier who knows the solar TSI will continue...into the foreseeable future/never..... at a subnormal irradiation level, as it has for the last 12+ years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low).
The chances of an ice free arctic not happening till then is probably really low anyways
If the solar TSI remains low for a while longer, the Arctic will still be ice-free by 2020-2040. But, solar nuclear physics demands solar TSI WILL rise back to normal & higher, in the future. Then, AGW effects & feedbacks will take off at a rate, Earth economics can't adjust for, because wide ranging AGW deniers' propaganda has been at work for decades.

Sam

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #29 on: July 30, 2018, 12:59:49 AM »
I agree with Wherestheice.

Based on current volume trends -
1st completely ice free September Arctic Ocean 2022-2023 +/- 2
1st completely ice free year-round Arctic Ocean 2035-2050
1st I’ve free Greenland & northern hemisphere 100-250 years after that
Maybe sooner - depending on feedbacks

If we trigger a catastrophic methane clathrate break, massive tundra fires ... the entire timescale could be compressed to a few years to an ice free arctic and less than a century for an ice free Greenland & northern hemisphere

About the only thing that will slow that at this point is the eruption of one of the twenty or so supervolcaneos. And that won’t stop it. It will only delay it for decades.

Sam

jdallen

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #30 on: July 30, 2018, 01:28:35 AM »
I agree with Wherestheice.

Based on current volume trends -
1st completely ice free September Arctic Ocean 2022-2023 +/- 2
1st completely ice free year-round Arctic Ocean 2035-2050
1st I’ve free Greenland & northern hemisphere 100-250 years after that
Maybe sooner - depending on feedbacks
<snippage>
I think 2022-2023 is still early.  I'm putting thinking a sub-1 million KM2 September extent won't arrive until 2030 +/- a couple.

I don't think we'll see a year round ice free Arctic for at least a couple of centuries.  As long as there's 3 million+ KM3 of ice sitting on Greenland, combined with "cold continents"  I think most of the CAB will refreeze annually.
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DavidR

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #31 on: July 30, 2018, 04:50:42 AM »
I agree with Wherestheice.

Based on current volume trends -
1st completely ice free September Arctic Ocean 2022-2023 +/- 2
1st completely ice free year-round Arctic Ocean 2035-2050
1st I’ve free Greenland & northern hemisphere 100-250 years after that
Maybe sooner - depending on feedbacks
<snippage>
I think 2022-2023 is still early.  I'm putting thinking a sub-1 million KM2 September extent won't arrive until 2030 +/- a couple.

I don't think we'll see a year round ice free Arctic for at least a couple of centuries.  As long as there's 3 million+ KM3 of ice sitting on Greenland, combined with "cold continents"  I think most of the CAB will refreeze annually.

Ice Free, or Ice below 1M km^2 in September needs to be defined a bit more clearly obviously.  Sam is talking about an ice free September, ie 30 days with no ice. That is quite different from the accepted view of the benchmark being met when there are a few consecutive ice free days. 

For Ice Free I suggest having the NSIDC SIE 5 day average hitting 0 would be sufficient. For less than 1 M Km^2 the definition should be 5 consecutive days below 1M km^2.
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Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #32 on: July 30, 2018, 08:03:22 AM »
I agree with Wherestheice.

Based on current volume trends -
1st completely ice free September Arctic Ocean 2022-2023 +/- 2
1st completely ice free year-round Arctic Ocean 2035-2050
1st I’ve free Greenland & northern hemisphere 100-250 years after that
Maybe sooner - depending on feedbacks
<snippage>
I think 2022-2023 is still early.  I'm putting thinking a sub-1 million KM2 September extent won't arrive until 2030 +/- a couple.

I don't think we'll see a year round ice free Arctic for at least a couple of centuries.  As long as there's 3 million+ KM3 of ice sitting on Greenland, combined with "cold continents"  I think most of the CAB will refreeze annually.

I think it would be very surprising if the Arctic wasn't ice free year round after another 2-4 decades. The amount of heat that will be in the Arctic after it goes ice free is truly scary. All that energy that melts the ice.....once there is no more ice to melt it will make things hot, really hot, and that will make it hard for the ice to refreeze. We are already seeing these warm winters. I think the Arctic going ice free year round in a couple centuries seems to be the mainstream view, but things are changing very rapidly. I can't say I agree, but at the end of the day nature will play how it wants not my or your thoughts.
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jdallen

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #33 on: July 30, 2018, 09:01:11 AM »
I think it would be very surprising if the Arctic wasn't ice free year round after another 2-4 decades.
The main-stream view (a couple centuries+) has a 3 million KM3+ gorilla supporting it - The Greenland Ice Cap.

That mass of ice will dominate regional temperatures until it's gone. It will also dominate local circulation which along with the winter cold pool on the continents will create regional conditions sufficiently cold to permit enough heat to be dissipated in winter to permit local refreeze at the very least, if not a full refreeze of the ocean.  The behavior of the system annually will come to resemble that currently in play in regions like Hudson Bay, the Bering, the Okhostk and Labrador seas.

Even after that local conditions will probably permit freezing in the CAA and along the continental margins for even longer after that.
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oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #34 on: July 30, 2018, 09:15:04 AM »
I think it would be very surprising if the Arctic wasn't ice free year round after another 2-4 decades. The amount of heat that will be in the Arctic after it goes ice free is truly scary. All that energy that melts the ice.....once there is no more ice to melt it will make things hot, really hot, and that will make it hard for the ice to refreeze. We are already seeing these warm winters. I think the Arctic going ice free year round in a couple centuries seems to be the mainstream view, but things are changing very rapidly. I can't say I agree, but at the end of the day nature will play how it wants not my or your thoughts.
I disagree. Even with storms, clouds, humidity, fog and whatever not - when the sun doesn't shine for 6 months, with the vagaries of weather there will come a calm clear day when temps fall below -10oC, and the surface will freeze somewhere in the central arctic basin. IMHO what could prevent such freezing is a major change of arctic ocean circulation, which could well happen at some point but not in a few decades.

binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #35 on: July 30, 2018, 09:52:40 AM »
We already have parts of the arctic ice-free all year round, reaching up to above 80 degrees north of Svalbard.

The ocean currents are well able to maintain an ice-free state through 6 months of darkness, but as Oren points out, this would require quite some reconfiguration of the current currents (!) for the whole Arctic to become ice-free through winter.

DavidR

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #36 on: July 30, 2018, 10:15:06 AM »
I think it would be very surprising if the Arctic wasn't ice free year round after another 2-4 decades.
I disagree. Even with storms, clouds, humidity, fog and whatever not - when the sun doesn't shine for 6 months, with the vagaries of weather there will come a calm clear day when temps fall below -10oC, and the surface will freeze somewhere in the central arctic basin. IMHO what could prevent such freezing is a major change of arctic ocean circulation, which could well happen at some point but not in a few decades.
I  come down on the side of a few decades before the Arctic will be ice free year round.  If we extrapolate from the volume decline the prediction is 2023 +- 2 for the first ice free summer days and 2053 for the first ice free year.  Currently the average year to year volume decline is still increasing.   If the trends are correct by 2035 we should see the Arctic Ice free from about July  1st.  That  means three months of insolation doing nothing but warming the ocean.  The combination of the extra heat in the ocean combined with more dynamic activities would seem to  suggest a shorter time to ice free all year rather than a longer period. 

If we look at how  fast SST's are increasing in the area above 80N+ , within 50 years they should be warm enough (> -10 degC in winter) to  prevent  much  ice forming.
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Peter Ellis

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #37 on: July 30, 2018, 10:28:41 AM »
The amount of heat that will be in the Arctic after it goes ice free is truly scary. All that energy that melts the ice.....once there is no more ice to melt it will make things hot, really hot, and that will make it hard for the ice to refreeze.
This applies to every seasonal ice zone in the world, and yet (to give but one example) Hudson Bay refreezes every winter.

binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #38 on: July 30, 2018, 10:36:53 AM »
The amount of heat that will be in the Arctic after it goes ice free is truly scary. All that energy that melts the ice.....once there is no more ice to melt it will make things hot, really hot, and that will make it hard for the ice to refreeze.
This applies to every seasonal ice zone in the world, and yet (to give but one example) Hudson Bay refreezes every winter.
Well, the Hudson doesn't have a major warm ocean current flowing into it - it is well inland (which means it has a continental climate with cold winters and warm summers) and the nearest warm ocean currents are very far away.

wili

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #39 on: July 30, 2018, 03:54:04 PM »
"...what could prevent such freezing is a major change of arctic ocean circulation..."

Yes, that could be a part of it. Another could be an ever-more open Arctic Sea seeing ever bigger waves that stir the very salty warm lower layers of sea water up to the surface.

Also, atmospheric circulation bringing more and more warm up from the lower latitudes up to the Arctic is another dynamic we are likely to see (and are seeing already) that will drive  things in that direction.

I'm not saying that I know for sure when we will have a year-round ice-free (or nearly so) Arctic, but the Arctic has a way of surprising us, and any one factor (even sunless six-month winters) is never the only determinant of dynamics there.
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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2018, 04:17:47 PM »
If the Paris Accord is implemented on time (??) then an Arctic with a lot less ice at all times of year (and zero in summer) seems the the most logical outcome for the rest of this century.

If the Paris Accord happens but a lot more slowly then an outcome as above but with longer periods of zero ice and even less ice in winter and happening sooner?

If it is BAU (both on CO2 emissions and economic growth), as above but even earlier and worse than above, until the crash comes. Those left standing will then see the Paris Accord implemented by force majeure.

And if all that methane in the highly organic sediments under the Eastern Siberian Ice Shelf and elsewhere are released ??????????

Timing - I have, do, and will plump for a BOE before 2030. But after one? two? three? more 2012 anomalies have happened ?

For anything else I might as well consult "The Book of Revelations".

And as Forrest Gump said - "And that's all I'm going to say about that".
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Sam

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2018, 04:56:39 PM »
Gerontocrat -

If we trigger the release of the ~1,600 gigatons of carbon in the methane and carbon stores of the Arctic planes and the tundra, it is game over. The earth will go to the hot earth stable state. The Arctic will melt rapidly. The Antarctic will take substantially longer, but will also completely melt before CO2 levels can reduce.

Once that happens, the Earth reenters a climate state that we do not understand how to model - the equable climate. That isn't a bad place once we get there. The pressure is higher along with O2 percentage (30%) and temperature. Wet forests burn in the rain. Giant insects become common as O2 transport becomes easy.

The problem is in getting there. In the interim, the oceans go anoxic. O2 levels plummet to 14%. Large animals die from insufficient O2 unless they have extreme high altitude adaptations. Iron falls out of the oceans. Shelled creatures all but vanish as the oceanic pH falls. All of the biomes are disrupted and most species die off leading to an evolutionary explosion as the survivors move to fill all of the vacant evolutionary niches.

In the end it becomes a massively good thing as new life flourishes on the graves of the last failed attempt. New adaptations take over and dominate.

The problem there is that we only have about 500 million years left to leave the Earth before we begin the terminal slide to a lifeless Earth as the goldilocjs zone moves outward with an ever hotter aging sun. By 750 million years, large life cannot exist. By a billion, life is done as the thermal runaway begins.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2018, 05:23:40 PM »
Btw-

The point here is that messing with high CO2 and CH4 levels is extremely dangerous. In gaming terms (and no thus isn't a game, that is the name used from studies that were developed during the Cold War), this is a "non zero sum game". And isn't the nice version where most or everyone wins. It is the nastiest version where nearly everyone loses.

Should we be so foolish as to push the Earth hard enough to trigger methane and tundra releases, the "game" is over. The Earth flips in a highly non-linear response to a wholly different environmental state - the hot Earth state. And in the long history of life on Earth, the greatest amount of time has been in either the hot Earth or cold Earth states. It has been relatively rare for the Earth to sit in a quasi stable condition between those two extremes.

The shift from one state to the another seems to always be catastrophic for life as it exists, but ultimately beneficial for life and evolution. Our existence as complex intelligent life may well be the direct result of these episodic catastrophes.

But that doesn't mean either that mankind will or would survive such a transition. Ignoring those risks and pumping immense stores of carbon into the atmosphere seems to be the major cause for transition to the hot Earth state, whether by asteroid impact, or supervolcanic flood basalt eruptions. 

magnamentis

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2018, 05:58:47 PM »
I think it would be very surprising if the Arctic wasn't ice free year round after another 2-4 decades.
The main-stream view (a couple centuries+) has a 3 million KM3+ gorilla supporting it - The Greenland Ice Cap.

That mass of ice will dominate regional temperatures until it's gone. It will also dominate local circulation which along with the winter cold pool on the continents will create regional conditions sufficiently cold to permit enough heat to be dissipated in winter to permit local refreeze at the very least, if not a full refreeze of the ocean.  The behavior of the system annually will come to resemble that currently in play in regions like Hudson Bay, the Bering, the Okhostk and Labrador seas.

Even after that local conditions will probably permit freezing in the CAA and along the continental margins for even longer after that.

thank you for putting this so well and nicely, i just don't have the nerves for it ;)

IMO year round ice free in the dark season is a kind of sensationalism which is not helping the cause to make a majority aware of the seriousness of global warming of which arctic ice loss is only one of many consequences.
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magnamentis

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2018, 06:02:38 PM »
We already have parts of the arctic ice-free all year round, reaching up to above 80 degrees north of Svalbard.

The ocean currents are well able to maintain an ice-free state through 6 months of darkness, but as Oren points out, this would require quite some reconfiguration of the current currents (!) for the whole Arctic to become ice-free through winter.

each warm current has it's counterpart which is why svalbard can be ice-free and st. lawrence can be frozen.

same as above, seeking sensation IMO and it will never happen as long as the rest of the NH doesn't have temps above 30C in winter and that's a far way to go if possible at all.

after all everything is sun-powered and the sun is and will remain a low angles above 35 latitude.

we better stay realistic and find solutions that are feasible for what's probable or possible then drifting off into phantsylands.

to make it clear, i talk about year-round-icefree, not about ice-free in summer which is the topic of theis thread, there i'm in full agreement that it will happen more sooner than later while i don't like all the "interpretations"  for me ice-free is zero (no significant amounts) of ice left, evertyhing else sounds a bit like who is right instead of what is right.
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sinocentric

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2018, 06:04:25 PM »
I went with 2020-2025. I'm nowhere near an expert, and I do feel it's a bit aggressive, but that's my purely subjective opinion.

Here's a couple of thoughts I have on why:

1. From the American Geophysical Union (2013)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/grl.50316:

Quote
observations and citations support the conclusion that most global climate model results in the CMIP5 archive are too conservative in their sea ice projections. Recent data and expert opinion should be considered in addition to model results to advance the very likely timing for future sea ice loss to the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.

It seems to me that any date past 2050 is not supported by the current science. Obviously, things could change, but that's what it is for now. In addition, the projections now have a track record of being conservative on projections of melt.

Someone also mentioned the possibility that a destruction of "BAU", which I take to mean a major societal disruption, could stop the melt. That may be possible, but I'm skeptical of that. Even if that does occur, I remember this quote from the 2017 CSSR (https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/executive-summary/):

Quote
over the next few decades (2021–2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976–2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios

I also recently watched the NASA sea ice video, showing the loss of the older and thicker ice...this is subjective but the region just appears so fragile now. Seems like it wouldn't take too much of a negative development to get a day under 1 million. There's gonna be probably a couple record hot years between now and 2025, and I think one of them will get it done. 




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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #46 on: July 30, 2018, 06:21:47 PM »
The arctic going ice couldn't possibly have less to do with the Paris deal.  The warming we are feeling now is mostly from GHG emissions from decades ago. GHGs are like a lid on a pot; as the lid gets thicker the stuff in the pot gets warmer, but it takes some time...in this case probably 20-30 years. The warming we have seen so far is primarily from emissions up to 1990, so about 350 ppm.

There is also a serious lag due to ice melting. Stable climate conditions that would lead to zero ice wouldn't result in the change occurring in a single year. It would likely take at minimum a decade.  Our current GHG levels are plenty high for an ice free arctic (ocean), but we are in the lag phase.

Of course, we haven't stabilized GHG levels, and plans like the Paris deal only scratch the surface of the necessary solutions.  Unfortunately even people who do pay attention to the climate situation are somehow soothed into believing that if only we adopt Paris and then maybe a little more, we will avoid the worst. 

It is madness. Worse than pure denial of the entire situation. I'm less bothered by those who think it is all an elite globalist ploy to enslave the masses, than I am by those who engage with the data on a daily basis but come to the conclusion that mild solutions will be sufficient to save civilization.  OR for that matter those who think that it is no big deal to change the climate drastically and kill off humanity cuz the earth will bounce back.  Are we really going to successfully prevent nuclear war as everything falls apart? Are we really going to successfully decommission the hundreds of nuclear power plants around the world? Even if you aren't bothered by the collapse of civilization and the horrible deaths of billions of people, the possibility of turning the earth into a planet like venus or mars should give you some pause.

The only genuine solution would be for the entire world to embark on creating a global carbon-negative permaculture landscape. Global knowledge sharing could continue but global trade would be reduced to maybe 1% its current volume.  Ironically, everyone would be happier and healthier, but this is not an option...lets just adopt Paris, pat ourselves on the back, and when it all starts to burn blame somebody else.
big time oops

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2018, 06:28:09 PM »
The arctic going ice couldn't possibly have less to do with the Paris deal.  The warming we are feeling now is mostly from GHG emissions from decades ago. GHGs are like a lid on a pot; as the lid gets thicker the stuff in the pot gets warmer, but it takes some time...in this case probably 20-30 years. The warming we have seen so far is primarily from emissions up to 1990, so about 350 ppm.

There is also a serious lag due to ice melting. Stable climate conditions that would lead to zero ice wouldn't result in the change occurring in a single year. It would likely take at minimum a decade.  Our current GHG levels are plenty high for an ice free arctic (ocean), but we are in the lag phase.

Of course, we haven't stabilized GHG levels, and plans like the Paris deal only scratch the surface of the necessary solutions.  Unfortunately even people who do pay attention to the climate situation are somehow soothed into believing that if only we adopt Paris and then maybe a little more, we will avoid the worst. 

It is madness. Worse than pure denial of the entire situation. I'm less bothered by those who think it is all an elite globalist ploy to enslave the masses, than I am by those who engage with the data on a daily basis but come to the conclusion that mild solutions will be sufficient to save civilization.  OR for that matter those who think that it is no big deal to change the climate drastically and kill off humanity cuz the earth will bounce back.  Are we really going to successfully prevent nuclear war as everything falls apart? Are we really going to successfully decommission the hundreds of nuclear power plants around the world? Even if you aren't bothered by the collapse of civilization and the horrible deaths of billions of people, the possibility of turning the earth into a planet like venus or mars should give you some pause.

The only genuine solution would be for the entire world to embark on creating a global carbon-negative permaculture landscape. Global knowledge sharing could continue but global trade would be reduced to maybe 1% its current volume.  Ironically, everyone would be happier and healthier, but this is not an option...lets just adopt Paris, pat ourselves on the back, and when it all starts to burn blame somebody else.

of course you're right, the paris agreement has nothing to do with it because that train has left the station and there is no red signal, i mean ice-less summers in the arctic will happen.

further the paris agreement IMO is better than nothing because it means that slowly (too slowly) those in charge move into the right direction but the agreement as such as it is today is a toothless tiger and will have zero real-live effect while zero is not none, just smaller than 1 ;)

the fact that this agreement is mentioned so often makes it even counter productive because it's abused as an excuse and to sooth public opinion.

the agreement as such is useless because there are no means of enforcement, no penalties, no consequences if targets won't be reached and they are already not possible to reach by now.

IMO we should start talking "tacheless" and speak out that fact and ask for more, else they're getting away with it, nothing else than eyewash and keeping people in hope that's in vain, at least in it's current implementation.

now, just to remind the reader, i said above that it's better than nothing and that it's a move into the right direction, hence i'm not AGAINST it but it's not sufficient by far and should not be hyped.

all those acclamation were ok the first few months but now we have to take things a few steps further.

BTW, we've not reached the 2C and ice will be gone for good in summer soon and that will boost temps for sure and it will be abrupt, we gonna witness it most probably.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2018, 06:35:19 PM by magnamentis »
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binntho

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #48 on: July 30, 2018, 06:28:50 PM »
We already have parts of the arctic ice-free all year round, reaching up to above 80 degrees north of Svalbard.

The ocean currents are well able to maintain an ice-free state through 6 months of darkness, but as Oren points out, this would require quite some reconfiguration of the current currents (!) for the whole Arctic to become ice-free through winter.

each warm current has it's counterpart which is why svalbard can be ice-free and st. lawrence can be frozen.

Really? Is that a natural law? The often toted oceanic conveyor belt moves warm water along the surface, and cold water along the bottom. That's the "counterpart" - there is no reason why there should be cold surface "counterparts" to warm surface currents.

Besides, St. Lawrence is a very bad example, it hardly ever sees any ice, and when it does, it's usually stuff that drifts in from the north.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2018, 07:35:53 PM »
Gerontocrat -

If we trigger the release of the ~1,600 gigatons of carbon in the methane and carbon stores of the Arctic planes and the tundra, it is game over. The earth will go to the hot earth stable state. The Arctic will melt rapidly. The Antarctic will take substantially longer, but will also completely melt before CO2 levels can reduce.

Once that happens, the Earth reenters a climate state that we do not understand how to model - the equable climate. That isn't a bad place once we get there. The pressure is higher along with O2 percentage (30%) and temperature. Wet forests burn in the rain. Giant insects become common as O2 transport becomes easy.

The problem is in getting there. In the interim, the oceans go anoxic. O2 levels plummet to 14%. Large animals die from insufficient O2 unless they have extreme high altitude adaptations. Iron falls out of the oceans. Shelled creatures all but vanish as the oceanic pH falls. All of the biomes are disrupted and most species die off leading to an evolutionary explosion as the survivors move to fill all of the vacant evolutionary niches.

In the end it becomes a massively good thing as new life flourishes on the graves of the last failed attempt. New adaptations take over and dominate.

The problem there is that we only have about 500 million years left to leave the Earth before we begin the terminal slide to a lifeless Earth as the goldilocjs zone moves outward with an ever hotter aging sun. By 750 million years, large life cannot exist. By a billion, life is done as the thermal runaway begins.

The problem with your argument is that if civilization isn't to collapse then the computers will have to take over and basically coat the Earth with a skin of Silicon, and they won't really care about Carbon-based life.

For a bunch of reasons, the only two choices are complete collapse and robotic ascendance.