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Neven

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Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 15, 2018, 02:46:10 PM »
This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

For a more general discussion on EVs and their future, usefulness and technological aspects, use the thread that was always meant for that: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2018, 02:49:59 PM »
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-president-bfr-mars-exploration-madrid-talk/

Quote
Other miscellaneous comments showed Shotwell at her best, ad-libbing one-liners that were lucid, accurate, and entertaining.

“We’ll be going to Mars … with NASA and with ESA. It’s gonna be like extreme camping… for 100 years. And then it might be okay.”
“[Space] tourism is inevitable but [SpaceX] doesn’t want to do it too soon”, the goal is to launch “test pilots before families”
“The first cars on Mars will be Teslas.”

Someone's confident Tesla will survive a few years  ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2018, 03:00:22 PM »
#Tesla's Model S remained W-Europe's top selling luxury model according to @AIDNewsletter data
It remained ahead of S-Class/7-Series/A8 in their own backyard during H1.
Model S sales expected to rise in H2 thanks to tax change in The Netherlands then slow next year
https://twitter.com/auto_schmidt/status/1039807784152391681

“People are sick and tired in Europe of small cars with poor performance engines. Tired of paying 7$ a gallon . Tired of crazy taxes they pay for those small boxes . When Tesla puts the foot in Europe properly then Asia the support encountered will be unseen .”
https://twitter.com/florindoc2003/status/1039885612524990464

—-

Base $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Production To Start In 8 Months
https://insideevs.com/base-35000-tesla-model-3-production-8-months/

Tesla threat to auto makers to grow dramatically in ~8 months with the $35,000 Tesla Model 3
@Toyota Camry XSE  $34,950
@BMW 3 Series >$34,900 @Mercedes-Benz C >$40,250
@Audi A4 $36,000

Meanwhile in Fremont, cost of building Teslas going down every day.  (30% decrease in labor per car, after lessons learned during the first 5,000-Model-3 burst week last June.)

The Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in August, by revenue. 
(Wait for the Model Y to take on the SUVs, and the Tesla pickup truck to enter the truck market!)

—-
Tesla’s positive growth is organic, word-of-mouth support, not ad-company blather.

Ethan Shapiro (@DJFrustration) 9/13/18, 11:01 PM
Big props to @Tesla @elonmusk and @woodhaus2 on designing the safest SUV, ever. My wife was rear ended (hit & run) in Miami today. She was shaken, but should be ok. First responders said, “as soon as they heard to look for a white Tesla, they knew she’d be ok.” Thanks guys.
https://twitter.com/djfrustration/status/1040435402878930945
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2018, 03:18:58 PM »
Not just ‘trash talk.’

Investors vote with their billions, supporting Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2018, 03:43:32 PM »
Good idea making this its own thread. Here is some trash talk...

David Stockman, former Director of US Office of Management and Budget and in general controversial figure, just gave a wide ranging interview and was asked about Tesla...

"Tesla, you know, is a wreck. It’s one of the biggest con jobs in modern history. You know, the idea that some how he has the secret formula to make an electric vehicle is ridiculous… He doesn’t know how to make a car. They are making them by hand…in order make 5,000 that week. It turns out they are sitting out in a field somewhere waiting to get reworked. I feel strongly about this, I was in the auto business. I know what mass production takes in terms of discipline, what i takes in terms of building infrastructure over time. Telsa isn’t a car manufacturer, it is a con. It is a con. It is the greatest short of this cycle. If some one has a strong stomach, go out and short the thing, cuz it will go to zero one of these days. It will end up being the poster boy for this bubble, the pets.com, only much bigger.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2018, 03:53:19 PM »
Tesla was objectively the top selling car in the US by revenue and 5th top selling car by units.  What are you going about?

 That is exactly what the graphs illustrate. Revenue is important because people are claiming that Tesla is going bankwupt. Having the top selling car by revenue is important don't you think?
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 04:09:33 PM »
By revenue, Lurk. I believe this is the source: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1-best-selling-car-in-the-us/

Quote
The high average selling price of the Model 3 and the record deliveries have resulted in Tesla’s Model 3 being the #1 best-selling car in the US by revenue in both July and August.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2018, 04:21:00 PM »
Number of units * average vehicle sale price = Revenue.

The significance should be simple for someone in a position with such a large name.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2018, 04:25:26 PM »
Quote
Do note the subtlety of the url and headline Neven - #1-best-selling-car-in-the-us.

You base your argument on the url?

The headlines clearly states with a parenthesis (By revenue).
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2018, 04:28:40 PM »
Quote
I say let's not spin anything

Ahhh! The blissful unawareness of our bias.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2018, 04:31:02 PM »
Lurk - your opinion that number of cars sold by model is more important than revenue by model may be quite valid. But your long-winded post said something else instead - that sig's data was not sourced properly and implied to be untrue. And not only in this case, but in general. And yet, sig's information was correct, you just didn't like the way someone might spin it.
Quote
The Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in August, by revenue
Quote
How, instead and for a change, finding both better sources and presenting the truth and the objective facts, at least occasionally Sig.? 

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2018, 04:42:44 PM »
So, I opened this thread at 02:46:10 PM (my time), explicitly asking to mainly post articles pro and contra and not engage in endless flame wars interpreting said articles. It went off the rails at 03:45:24 PM, just within the hour.  ;D

Let's try again. Post articles pro and contra, and resist the urge to go nuts over one sentence. Just post the stuff, and sooner or later we'll find out whether Tesla makes it or not.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2018, 04:51:42 PM »
You got it Neven.

Tesla Glory:

First World Problems - how to be in for Amazon when you're out

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2018, 05:19:46 PM »
Tesla was objectively the top selling car in the US by revenue and 5th top selling car by units.  What are you going about?

 That is exactly what the graphs illustrate. Revenue is important because people are claiming that Tesla is going bankwupt. Having the top selling car by revenue is important don't you think?

I guess it isn't unimportant, but it really isn't very important. Plenty of companies go bankwupt with plenty of revenue. Free cash flow...like making more than you spend...that is what will determine the timing of The Great Tesla File. Astute observers will have noticed that in Tesla's mid quarter update, there was no longer any mention of profitability....

In terms of actual news: Model 3 production has seen an uptick to mid 4000s the past week.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2018, 05:50:34 PM »
Tesla Model 3 was the #1 selling car (excl. trucks and SUVs) by revenue in the U.S. in August, for the 2nd straight month and by a wide margin.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1037530373796839424

Edit: added July data
« Last Edit: September 15, 2018, 06:18:57 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2018, 06:02:05 PM »
Tesla’s annual revenue:

2018: $19.6 billion*
2017: $11.8 billion
2016: $7.0 billion
2015: $4.1 billion
2014: $3.2 billion
2013: $2.0 billion
2012: $413.3 million
2011: $204.2 million
2010: $116.7 million
2009: $111.9 million
2008: $14.7 million

(*analyst estimates)

https://twitter.com/jonerlichman/status/1014612350291202048
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2018, 06:11:35 PM »
Deal with the hard facts. Tesla was NOT the #1 best selling US car in August. Do not pretend that it was. It wasn't - the Toyota Camry was (according to that source I quoted)

Yes, by units sold. And by revenue, Tesla's Model 3 held the #1 spot.

So, we all agree. Let's continue posting pro and contra articles.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2018, 06:14:52 PM »
So, is there any data out there showing how the Model 3 stacks up against other 60K cars, by units sold and by revenue?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2018, 06:21:56 PM »
Entry-level luxury cars.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2018, 06:24:53 PM »
Model 3 sales versus entire brands.
And, oh yes, versus other EVs. ;)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2018, 07:22:11 PM »
Tesla threat to auto makers to grow dramatically in ~8 months with the $35,000 Tesla Model 3
@Toyota Camry XSE  $34,950
@BMW 3 Series >$34,900 @Mercedes-Benz C >$40,250
@Audi A4 $36,000

Tesla said they would be at consistent 5,000/wk model 3 production by the end on 2017. And they still are not there. That prediction was 5 months out, and is now 13.5 months later without being fulfilled. So (13.5)/(5) = 2.7 .   2.7*8 = 21.6 .   So I think it is fair to expect the $35k model 3 to arrive at some point between 21.6 months from now and never.

And you have threat backwards. Toyota, BMW, and Audi have no near term solvency issues. They all have positive free cash flow and sit on 10s of billions of dollars of cash. They have proven business models and global reach totally unreliant on capital markets or government subsidies. I'm not cheerleading these things...just calling a spade a spade.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2018, 07:32:56 PM »
hahahaha, I have never seen a rainbowed bar graph before. EPICcally silicon valley.  So if you look at the free cash flow and the revenue charts together, you can see that lose money pretty much no matter what. As the old saying goes, "we lose money on every sale, but we make it up on volume." STRUCTURALLY UNPROFITABLE.

Neven, serious question: Is there a problem with us endlessly posting our disputes about Tesla on this thread? Is there a reason we need to limit it to genuinely novel information?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #22 on: September 15, 2018, 08:16:53 PM »
don't get bogged down in semantics; keep some perspective: how many FORD mustangs or BMW 3 series would have been sold in August if there were only very very few available in 2017 or the first half of 2018? WAY more than the number of TESLA model 3s

Luckily, this will all be over soon
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #23 on: September 15, 2018, 08:38:20 PM »
“Luckily, this will all be over soon”

So true.  I can’t wait!  Q3 results will electrocute the shorts. 

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #24 on: September 15, 2018, 09:19:24 PM »
“Luckily, this will all be over soon”

So true.  I can’t wait!  Q3 results will electrocute the shorts.

There is literally nothing that Tesla can report in Q3 that will significantly hurt the shorts. The short thesis is build on the idea that Tesla is fraudulent. The shorts response to Tesla claiming a billion dollar profit in Q3 and a spike in the stock price will be, "lol, carrying my short position just got cheaper and more lucrative."

Seriously person, at least know what you are up against...
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2018, 10:12:16 PM »
Great addition to the graph Sigmetnow.

It adds the context needed to understand the loses. After each new car model is completed the cost of building factories, Tesla stores and super chargers fall and profits from the new cars emerge. Then Tesla sinks everything any cheap debt they can get into designing and building factories for the next car.

They did it for Model S, Model X and now they are doing it for Model 3. They MUST be profitable, because if they are not the laws of economics makes Tesla unsustainable. What good are unsustainable EV's?

My hope is that after Tesla hits green either in Q3 or Q4 they remain in the green only for the minimum time necesary to regain confidence from the market, pay down a few bills and build up their cash reserves. When they are ready they should raise as much cheap debt as possible and build 3 more Gigafactories.


Sigmetnow I'm afraid that even if the most epic of short squeezes happens, the trolls will remain. Tesla is part of the same battle as climate change. There are many people protecting the status quo by any means necesary. Fools that can't comprehend the dangers we are all in.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2018, 10:57:31 PM »
Great addition to the graph Sigmetnow.

It adds the context needed to understand the loses. After each new car model is completed the cost of building factories, Tesla stores and super chargers fall and profits from the new cars emerge. Then Tesla sinks everything any cheap debt they can get into designing and building factories for the next car.

They did it for Model S, Model X and now they are doing it for Model 3. They MUST be profitable, because if they are not the laws of economics makes Tesla unsustainable. What good are unsustainable EV's?

My hope is that after Tesla hits green either in Q3 or Q4 they remain in the green only for the minimum time necesary to regain confidence from the market, pay down a few bills and build up their cash reserves. When they are ready they should raise as much cheap debt as possible and build 3 more Gigafactories.


Sigmetnow I'm afraid that even if the most epic of short squeezes happens, the trolls will remain. Tesla is part of the same battle as climate change. There are many people protecting the status quo by any means necesary. Fools that can't comprehend the dangers we are all in.

Q3 is the beginning of “sustainably profitable” for Tesla. 
Recent VIN registrations are 100% for dual motor versions of the Model 3.  Demand for Performance version surpasses even Tesla’s expectations.  A recent “sign and drive” opportunity with 400 cars for people who had ordered a Model 3 ran out of dual motor models within hours.  The average sale price of the Model 3 could easily be above $60,000 and with Tesla planning to produce and deliver over 50,000 vehicles in Q3, the Model 3 program alone could bring over $3 billion in revenue this quarter.  Musk said on the last financial call that barring a force majeure, Tesla will be continually profitable from now on.  Trolls will simply look increasingly foolish.  Kind of like hydrogen backers.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2018, 11:03:37 PM »
My hope is that after Tesla hits green either in Q3 or Q4 they remain in the green only for the minimum time necesary to regain confidence from the market, pay down a few bills and build up their cash reserves. When they are ready they should raise as much cheap debt as possible and build 3 more Gigafactories.

I'm afraid that even if the most epic of short squeezes happens, the trolls will remain. Tesla is part of the same battle as climate change. There are many people protecting the status quo by any means necessary. Fools that can't comprehend the dangers we are all in.

Has it ever occurred to you that the people posting Tesla-negative-info on this thread DO NOT HAVE SHORT POSITIONS? Do you think we can only orgasm when we smell a huge whiff of gasoline? Honestly, your opposition to our dissent makes no sense. We simply just aren't willing to override our BS-sensors for the sake of virtue signalling. It is not very complicated. What will be your thought process when us FOOLS are proven correct and TESLA FILES (might be a decent name for a future TV series)?

They don't have a chance outside of some sorta Venuzuela scenario where the stock market skyrockets because the currency is imploding
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #28 on: September 16, 2018, 03:34:33 AM »
Tesla Model 3 | Fully Charged

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #29 on: September 16, 2018, 05:01:53 AM »
There is actually some really useful evidence about how to effectively communicate. Ironically, most scientists seem to ignore it.
boom. good stuff. I have long felt that crucial missing piece in this world could be found at the crossroads of what would work and what appeals to normal people.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #30 on: September 16, 2018, 05:07:28 AM »
Tesla Model 3 | Fully Charged



That is NOT south colorado.

HALF PRICE = $60,000 (more likely $80,000)

"we are going to go totally off the grid" says a man who is for sure 100% reliant on everything the grid provides and who lives a super duper high emissions lifestyle. boy, am i glad he gets to feel good and green!

I am so so thankful that Tesla as reinvented the door handle. I have personally found that door handles are terrible and the world is desperately in need of a company to disrupt how we open doors.

Let's test drive these things in a park where the max speed limit, is 20 mph. our model t references will be so on point (Tesla performance is actually amazing. like so so so so fun. so not trying to shit on that. just want to take a dump on the mental wattage of the average tesla-journalist)

"It doesn't have ludicrous-mode...."HOW THE FUCK DO THESE PEOPLE TAKE THEMSELVES SERIOUSLY. "oh my god. it will be the alien-dreadnought. our margins will be amazing because it will be the machine building the machine." a few months later..."humans are under-rated. but our margins based on super-automation are the same"

"it doesn't recognize stop signs or stop lights?" holy shit people. have you been in a waymo vehicle? those things are so advanced they stereotype pedestrians. "tesla is a tech company!" maybe a terrible one "tesla is a car company" maybe a terrible one

"look at the faith you have had"..."the more I think about it from a logical standpoint it is like, what was I doing"

"tesla owners are a weird breed"

 "you know there's not a great deal in it"


I don't like to go in this direction, but it is starting to be startling...why is every tesla super fan under the age of 60 a super soft beta? That is not normal, right?
« Last Edit: September 16, 2018, 05:57:08 AM by GoSouthYoungins »
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #31 on: September 16, 2018, 11:26:11 AM »
Neven, serious question: Is there a problem with us endlessly posting our disputes about Tesla on this thread?

Yes, it's redundant and tiresome, and I'm the guy who is supposed to solve conflicts (and I don't have the time).

Quote
Is there a reason we need to limit it to genuinely novel information?

Yes, everyone has staked out their territory, so there's not much use in repetitive flame wars. Like I said, the Internet is a big place. The need for flame wars can be fulfilled elsewhere.

So, everyone can post pro/contra Tesla glory/failure propaganda here, articles, op-eds, videos, whatever. We can discuss the source of the propaganda for a bit to see if it holds up somewhat, but we don't have to inject our oft-repeated opinions/rants into every comment.

Tesla will either succeed or fail. That's what this thread is about. Not about what it means for Green BAU, or whether Musk is a charlatan, or about how EVs work.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #32 on: September 16, 2018, 01:00:51 PM »
Tesla reclaims Laguna Seca record with a Model 3 Performance driven by an amateur

https://electrek.co/2018/09/15/tesla-model-3-performance-laguna-seca-record/

Quote
The Laguna Seca lap record for a production electric vehicle has changed hands a few times in the past few weeks. Most recently, Jaguar grabbed it with an I-Pace driven by a pro-driver.

Now Tesla reclaims it with a Model 3 Performance driven by an amateur drive

Video of the lap:

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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #33 on: September 16, 2018, 01:37:19 PM »
Very nice, it tells us Model 3 is fast, but it doesn't tell us anything about whether Tesla will succeed or fail.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #34 on: September 16, 2018, 01:49:39 PM »
Define success. To me success can be measured in the accumulation of small victories and the minimization of small defeats. Setting a speed record in the automotive world is a small victory?

But if you want a more narrow definition of success I'll be happy to comply.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #35 on: September 16, 2018, 02:13:18 PM »
Define success? Ehhh, not going bankrupt? None of the things coming about or being true that all the anti-propaganda purports?

Time frame? Next 12-18 months?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #36 on: September 16, 2018, 02:25:11 PM »
GSY wrote: 
Quote
“Has it ever occurred to you that the people posting Tesla-negative-info on this thread DO NOT HAVE SHORT POSITIONS?”

Has it ever occurred to you that I might not be referring to you?  ;D ;D ::) 
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #37 on: September 16, 2018, 02:26:21 PM »
Ok. I'll stick to the more narrow definition of success from the business/finance perspective. It's a good idea.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2018, 02:46:35 PM »
Thanks, the original Car threads can be used for more general discussions on EVs and their technical specs, their role in combating AGW, and so on. This one is purely to post stuff that are about whether Tesla will make it or not, which I think, was the main point of contention causing all the anger and strife.
Compare, compare, compare

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2018, 02:57:43 PM »
I don't think that is the main point of contention Neven. I think this is more climate change denial related than it is stock market related. Surely the financial incentive of shorts interests made matters worse, but the shorts are victims of climate change deniers deceit too.

Regardless of the financial outcome the contention will remain. Change ain't easy.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #40 on: September 16, 2018, 03:17:04 PM »
Both glories and failures discussed here.

James Anderson: ‘vicious’ short sellers are Tesla’s big problem, not Elon Musk

http://m.citywire.co.uk/money/james-anderson-vicious-short-sellers-are-tesla-s-big-problem-not-elon-musk/a1154739

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Tesla shares – in which Baillie Gifford held a 7.8% stake and which accounted for 5% of Scottish Mortgage assets – have plunged in the month since Musk proposed taking the company private in a $420 per share buyout. Nonetheless, Anderson blames the ‘malignant’ influence of short-sellers hoping to profit from Tesla’s demise and a negative media for the bulk of the company’s woes.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Csnavywx

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #41 on: September 16, 2018, 04:11:12 PM »
Why do I get the feeling that most of this thread is going to be fantastic bump trolling material?

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #42 on: September 16, 2018, 05:47:05 PM »
Musk just tweeted about an update to the Tesla Referral Program....could it be more obvious there is not endless demand for the cars Tesla is producing? Every piece of info that comes about related to Tesla, further corroborates the Tesla bear thesis. The sooner they file, the better. If they hold out for a miracle it will destroy the brand.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #43 on: September 16, 2018, 10:32:07 PM »
I've been on holiday in Italy, just flew back into the UK yesterday and only got back to the apartment, where I work from, today.

So I'm a bit slow to this thread.

OK so, from my viewpoint.

Why is it important to show that Tesla is selling more revenue than any other manufacturer in the US?

Well, let me see, because people keep on pointing to Tesla cash flow and saying that it's going to go bust.  OK, so Revenue is vitally important, not sheer volume of cars. Because Tesla has to get over the hump of all that money invested to get the company going.

So, let me see.  The vast rise in Tesla revenues began when Tesla started selling Model 3 cars in volume.  Because the Model 3 is by far the largest revenue earner, it's important to know how this affects cash flow.  Because it is of no use having $10bn in revenue if it costs $12bn to manufacture them.

So, what is the cost of a Tesla Model 3, to manufacture, as shipped today for ~$55,000?

Quote
The engineers estimate a total of $28,000 in costs to build the Model 3: $18,000 for materials and $10,000 for labor and production

Right, so there is some $27,000 difference between the average sale price of the Model 3 being manufactured today and the cost of manufacturing.  The guys who tore this car apart are from the vehicle manufacturing business so if they don't know then nobody does.

Let us assume that the loss making parts of Tesla consume half of that money.  That leaves us with $13,500 in profit for every vehicle.  That is 24% profit.  SIGNIFICANTLY higher than any estimates so far from the "pundits".

Perhaps I'm being too unrealistic, let's say that it costs $18,000 to cover all the loss making parts of Tesla, per car.  Now we're talking $9,000 and that is still 16% profit.  Also significantly more than analysts are talking about.

Bloomberg estimates that 51,000 Model 3's have been manufactured in Q3 so far.  If we take that $9,000 profit, that leads to $450m in profit.  Less the costs of any additional equipment required to increase production and we know that Tesla will receive 3 new automation infrastructures, designed to get Tesla over the 6,000 per week hurdle, in the next few weeks.  So let us take $100m off that.  We're still talking some $300m in profit.

That is _NOT_ the sign of a company in decline or about to collapse.  It is, however, a sign of a company rapidly approaching profitability and using that money to make themselves even more profitable, per unit, in the future.

There is a very LARGE difference between the marketing, sales pitch and financial structure, of a startup; than there is with a large and well established company.  If anyone has any doubts about this, they should look at how much of a dividend Alphabet pays to its shareholders....

For some recognition of what Tesla has done, in comparison with other vehicle start up's, we might want to compare Ford.

How many times did it take Ford to get his company going?  Where exactly did Cadillac come from?

Even better you talk about Musk and how "bad" he is for what he does and says...

Quote
Henry Ford turned the presidency of Ford Motor Company over to his son Edsel Ford in December 1918. Henry retained final decision authority and sometimes reversed the decisions of his son. Ford started another company, Henry Ford and Son, and made a show of taking himself and his best employees to the new company; the goal was to scare the remaining holdout stockholders of the Ford Motor Company to sell their stakes to him before they lost most of their value. (He was determined to have full control over strategic decisions.) The ruse worked, and Ford and Edsel purchased all remaining stock from the other investors, thus giving the family sole ownership of the company

Such a nice guy, really, really, nice.

Nice people, the one's you want to marry your daughter, they go nowhere.  Those who go places are, in business, armed with necks of solid titanium.

ON Unions.

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Ford was adamantly against labor unions. He explained his views on unions in Chapter 18 of My Life and Work.[33] He thought they were too heavily influenced by some leaders who, despite their ostensible good motives, would end up doing more harm than good for workers

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Ford also believed that union leaders had a perverse incentive to foment perpetual socio-economic crisis as a way to maintain their own power

Really?  Never!

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To forestall union activity, Ford promoted Harry Bennett, a former Navy boxer, to head the Service Department. Bennett employed various intimidation tactics to squash union organizing.[34] The most famous incident, on May 26, 1937, involved Bennett's security men beating with clubs members of the United Automobile Workers, including Walter Reuther.[35] While Bennett's men were beating the UAW representatives, the supervising police chief on the scene was Carl Brooks, an alumnus of Bennett’s Service Department, and [Brooks] "did not give orders to intervene."[36] The following day photographs of the injured UAW members appeared in newspapers, later becoming known as The Battle of the Overpass.

Such an excellent chap.  Indeed.  He also had issues with being Anti Semitic.  Something which was actually acceptable at the time..

Quote
During this period, Ford emerged as "a respected spokesman for right-wing extremism and religious prejudice", reaching around 700,000 readers through his newspaper.[59] The 2010 documentary film Jews and Baseball: An American Love Story (written by Pulitzer Prize winner Ira Berkow) states that Ford wrote on May 22, 1920: "If fans wish to know the trouble with American baseball they have it in three words—too much Jew."[60]

Then, of course, we have Honda.

Another of the great car makers which started up in the same century.  Note just how many times it took Honda to get going.

Back in the late 90's there were articles which were much less polished than the Wiki page of today and they told a very interesting story which has vanished in the great bit bucket of the internet.  After WWII Japan still had a tradition allowing manufacturers to demand up front payment of a product which had not bee delivered.  Of course in a culture like theirs, where Suicide was the alterative to actually delivering, this was not such a bad risk.

Had it not been for the ability to get up front payments, in full, for the motorcycles that Honda was manufacturing, Honda would never have been a company, it would have failed before it started.

So when we talk about Tesla and whether it is going to survive or fail, when we talk about how it is producing revenue and product and what the ratio's are, it is well to keep in mind that Tesla is a START UP and to compare apples with apples and not apples with a stainless steel orange.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2018, 10:38:19 PM by NeilT »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #44 on: September 16, 2018, 11:58:11 PM »
And just a point about the validity of saying that Tesla Shorts have something to do with the viability of the company.

If we were to believe that, then Google Parent alphabet is in dire straits

I mean.

Quote
Short sellers have taken a $1.1 billion bath on their bearish wagers since the start of 2017 as the stock has surged roughly 23%, according to data provided by S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm.

Quote
But that futility hasn't prompted short speculators to throw in the towel heading into Alphabet's second-quarter earnings report, due after Monday's closing bell. In fact, they've added $100 million to positions in the past week.

That was 2017.  Haven't seen Alphabet going south any time soon.  In fact, they're still at it in 2018...

Quote
Short positions against the so-called FAANG group of the largest U.S. technology stocks have surged by more than 40 percent in the past year as investors bet against some of the biggest drivers of the global bull market.

Where

Quote
“Tech stocks have had a large run-up in price this year,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of research at S3 Partners, said in an email. “The greater the rise, the greater the fall so they are being targeted as the stocks to short

so, in reality, the Shorts are betting that the bull run of the market is going to turn and they're going to make a killing.

It has not one single thing to do with the health of the company.  It has to do with gambling.

If you were to believe the shorts, then Alibaba, Amazon, Apple and Netflix are in danger of collapsing.... 

So, having established that shorts are not a reliable measure for the health of a company, we can go back to financial health and cash flow.  The results of which we won't know until next month.

As Neven says.  Employ some patience and all will be revealed.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #45 on: September 17, 2018, 12:10:51 AM »
Musk just tweeted about an update to the Tesla Referral Program....could it be more obvious there is not endless demand for the cars Tesla is producing? Every piece of info that comes about related to Tesla, further corroborates the Tesla bear thesis.
Really? What was the update? I assume Tesla is enhancing the program in a desperate bid to attract some new buyers? At least you make it sound that way. Or maybe you haven't checked the details?

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #46 on: September 17, 2018, 12:26:40 AM »
Musk just tweeted about an update to the Tesla Referral Program....could it be more obvious there is not endless demand for the cars Tesla is producing? Every piece of info that comes about related to Tesla, further corroborates the Tesla bear thesis.
Really? What was the update? I assume Tesla is enhancing the program in a desperate bid to attract some new buyers? At least you make it sound that way. Or maybe you haven't checked the details?

https://electrek.co/2018/09/16/tesla-ending-free-unlimited-supercharging-era/

Quote
New Model S, Model X, and Model 3 Performance buyers still have a chance to get free unlimited Supercharging for the lifetime of their ownership by ordering before the end of the day with a referral code.

After that, the referral program will give $100 of Supercharging credit to new buyers, which is a major drop in value from the unlimited free Supercharging for the lifetime ownership of the car.

Tesla has been talking about ending the valuable referral incentive for years now, but it looks like this time is the one.

CEO Elon Musk even tweeted the deadline last night:

Obviously selling so badly that withdrawing a benefit will entice new orders ??????

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #47 on: September 17, 2018, 05:41:42 AM »
GLORY SECURED

Musk tweets, "This ends midnight California time. Not coming back."

Sounds like the type of BS that is common from used car companies or a furniture warehouse.

He also took to twitter to respond to the myriad of repair delay issues. And told a BLATANT LIE about it being the fault of small shops and thus Tesla will be bringing everything in house. When immediately ppl called him out about the issue being Tesla's inability to provide parts, Musk backpeddled just a bit with a deflection.

When you start publicly telling obvious lies totally unsolicited AND are pushing sales with "TODAY ONLY" bullshit for a product for which you claim to have endless demand, the end is nigh. Put options look pretty cheap.
big time oops

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #48 on: September 17, 2018, 02:14:05 PM »
Who buys a car in 24 hours? If the deadline was to attract new buyers then they would have given a few weeks notice. It was going to end sometime. Doing it this way with just 24 hours notice makes it look like they are being ordered well enough to me. Obviously some people biases are making them see what they want to see.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #49 on: September 17, 2018, 02:40:38 PM »
Quote
Who buys a car in 24 hours?

Remember that Tesla sells their cars online. People that might have considered buying a Tesla for a while may be swayed by the prospect free fuel for the life of the vehicle. A twit like that might be worth a few hundreds, maybe thousands of sales. He has 22 million followers.

I like companies where the CEO's try to sell their products. Obviously, not everyone agrees.
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