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John Batteen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5550 on: April 23, 2024, 06:09:14 PM »
A nice 10 min summary of the couple of “small details” that impedes the transition to BEV in favor of hybrids, at least for a decade or two. All this has been discussed here, but some folks just prefer to ignore this, especially the ones that most religiously believe in techno-utopias.

One detail: none of this affects at the richest 1%, or say 10% even, so if you are one of them don’t bother about watching the video, buy expensive BEV, charge at home (while you can), and come to the forum to lecture to the rest of us, as usual.



She said she didn't think it would go as fast as governments wanted, but that it would still happen over the next 20 years, not that it would never happen.  She even said she thought electric cars were ultimately the most efficient way to go.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5551 on: April 23, 2024, 06:09:27 PM »
Quote
The average age of a car in the USA is over 12.5 years, meaning the average lifetime of a car in the USA is about 25 years.
No the average life time of a car would be very close to the average age.
 https://www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/
Some growth in sales but not much over the last fifty years.
By 2030 almost all new cars sold   will be electric .
The price is coming down and supporting infrastructure expanding.
By 2030 it will be only a small minority that would consider buying noisy, smelly, slow and expensive to  run ICE.   By 2035 it will become problematic to find servicing and fuel for ice as gas stations close and repair facilities switch to the new paradigm. 
Does not change that the impact on the grid will be minor and well within the capability of suppliers to keep up with demand.

With US cars running at around 17m per year and EV currently running at around 1.7m a year, I think it is going to take more than 7 years to create that additional capacity.  I can't see China doing it in the US in that time either.

There is going to be a 4 year run for each new facility to get to volume.  For us to see the majority of vehicles EV by 2030 in the US we would need to see about 20 factories either transitioning or in new build right now.

In fact OEM's have decided to slow down and China built EV's (or possibly Mexico assembled EV's for China), will face regulation headwinds.

I believe that Tesla will force the game more but the OEM's have looked, seen that regulation is going further away and that competition is muted for now.

Their reply?  Slow Down and hope that nobody dramatically overtakes them.  Yes for the OEM's Hope really is a strategy.  Along with Cartelling their actions.

Cybertruck is key because it lives in the pickup truck/SUV heartland where US OEM's make the vast majority of their profit.  If that ramps beyond 0.5m and is highly successful in sales, expect the OEM's to restart the heart of their EV industry.  At which point we will be closer to the 2030 date than we are today.
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5552 on: April 23, 2024, 06:19:19 PM »
A nice 10 min summary of the couple of “small details” that impedes the transition to BEV in favor of hybrids, at least for a decade or two. All this has been discussed here, but some folks just prefer to ignore this, especially the ones that most religiously believe in techno-utopias.

One detail: none of this affects at the richest 1%, or say 10% even, so if you are one of them don’t bother about watching the video, buy expensive BEV, charge at home (while you can), and come to the forum to lecture to the rest of us, as usual.



She said she didn't think it would go as fast as governments wanted, but that it would still happen over the next 20 years, not that it would never happen.  She even said she thought electric cars were ultimately the most efficient way to go.

Europe is a test case for legislation and what it is going to do.

Today CO2 emissions allowed are 95g/km driven.  By 2025 that will drop to 93.6.  Still viable for the "hybrid" crowd.

However the crunch comes in 2030. When it drops to 49.5g.

Today the largest number of "Hybrids" sold in the EU today are so called "self charging".  In other words an ICE with battery assist/ICE charging, whilst driving down the road.

These vehicles cannot get anywhere near 50g CO2 per km.  So they will die.

PHEV?  7%.  People will move to pure BEV faster than PHEV.

So come 2030, ICE will be impossible, their otto cycle energy wasters simply can't get anywhere near 50g.  Neither can the HEV.  Only PHEV with a fairly large battery and BEV can get anywhere near that.

Now it may be that manufacturers will have a line of hybrids purely for the US market.  Or maybe they will move their main line of vehicles to BEV?  Who knows.
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nadir

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5553 on: April 23, 2024, 08:19:13 PM »
I don’t understand why you call it “FUD”. Practical affordable reliable EVs are not available to the masses,
And then you follow it with FUD.

This is funny, you call FUD to a simple observation.

And what is FUD anyway? FUD FUD FUD, an acronym used by idiots on defensive (not meaning you).

Take into account that I don’t live in Palo Alto or Norway.
Take into account that what I call affordable is $25000 or really under.
Take into account that what I call practical is not found in most countries, even developed countries: a family without garage that can access a non-broken charger and load, say 500 km of range, in a reasonable time without waiting a line or searching for the other side of the city.
Take into account that what I call reliable is a BEV brand that is at least half up on the list (right now maybe this is Tesla and maybe Volvo and not much more. cannot buy, and cannot buy).

And I consider myself fortunate, meaning I don’t live in dire situation and don’t need two or three jobs to meet month to month. I am sure I am in the 10% richest percentage *of the world*.

But I don’t find the affordable BEVs attractive at all (Dacia, MG, Dolphin, mini EVs, etc). They are severely limited in one way or another. Imagine the 90% poorer population below me!

OMG FUD FUD FUD!!!

nadir

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5554 on: April 23, 2024, 08:32:57 PM »
When half the cars & trucks on the road are EVs, 40% of oil-for-transportation oil production will no longer be produced, so refineries will use about 1/4 less electricity.  [This info not used below.]

Currently cars (etc.) use 13E12 ÷ 25.4 (= 512E9) gallons of gasoline which uses (in production) about 2.0E12 kWh of electricity; so when half the traffic is EV traffic, refineries will not be using some 1.0E12 kWh of electricity that they currently use.  This power (focused, alas, on places with refineries), repurposed for EV charging, will take EVs about 2.8 trillion miles (4.6E12 km) which is some 20% of the miles those EVs will travel.

(What did I get wrong, if anything?)

Another calculation:
Gas cars get 25.4 ÷ 4 (= 6.35) miles per kWh (of electricity used to produce a gallon of gasoline used to travel 25.4 miles).  EVs get 2.86 miles per kWh. 

A gas car will use 15.75 kWh (invested in gasoline) to go 100 miles.
An EV could use that electricity to go 45 miles.  (Why is this a lot more than ’20%’?)

If one gets a good electricity plan and loads the car at home (that’s less than 50% population in developed countries), the savings can be substantial. However we have witnessed situations where gasoline went down after an inflation peak and the kWh price in public chargers did not follow suit, being the EV charging more expensive than the ICE or especially hybrid counterpart.

Then we have the infamous price in fossil fuel to manufacture lithium batteries. That’s another great detail about all this (sorry I think I am FUDding right now).

Using America is also worst case scenario in ICE mileage. The same math don’t apply where the average power is 100 - 150 hp, 1.2 - 2.0 liter, 1000 kg car, not the monsters driven in the US


kiwichick16

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5556 on: April 24, 2024, 03:34:16 AM »
- A typical estimate is that it takes about 4 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy (i.e., electricity) to produce 1 gallon of gasoline.

Gas cars get 25.4 ÷ 4 (= 6.35) miles per kWh (of electricity used to produce a gallon of gasoline used to travel 25.4 miles). 

The disconnect may be in the energy other than electricity, and the processes other than refining, all of which are required to produce the final, very energy-intensive, gasoline product delivered to the consumer.  We know that ICE vehicles themselves are much less energy-efficient than BEVs.
 
Such factors are addressed in “Well to Wheels” efficiency studies, such as the ones illustrated below.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2024, 03:40:09 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Rascal Dog

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5557 on: April 24, 2024, 05:45:00 AM »
This is funny, you call FUD to a simple observation.

Electric cars have been at or near production rate limited for the past 12 years.

If enough BEVs can be made for 0.1% of the population, who gets them and why? Not the affordable end of the market as BEVs are a better car. Those that pay more, get more. Those with a garage or driveway and can install a home charging station are mostly ahead of those that can't. Yet.

1% of the market is a different slice. As is 10% of the market. Someone in the lower middle of the market is likely last. Perhaps 2050 or 2060. Excluding car collectors, car museums and such, of course.

If you want to insist that BEVs must be for everyone everywhere not later than today, then you are demanding the impossible. Can't do it. Don't have enough Lithium mined yet. Or Sodium. Can't refine enough Lithium. Or Sodium, or what ever. Can't make enough cells. Can't assemble enough batteries. Or motors. Or cars. Yet. Can't even with BEVs beamed from Alpha Centori, as the infrastructure to support 100% BEVs is 30 years into the future. That's FUD to demand something impossible.

If you want reality, that is different.

The reality is that BEVs have been doubling production about every 2 to 3 years. Can't do that forever, of course, somewhere at or before 100% of the market it will stop.

In order to continue to do that, lower prices will necessary. And they are likely.

In order to continue to do that, infrastructure like street side charging stations will be need. A decade or more in the future, in most cases.

BEVs are usually more reliable than the other cars in the brand. True for Nissan and the LEAF. True for Chevy and the Bolt. And so on.


Imagine the 90% poorer population below me!


I suspect that many poorer than you will have a BEV before you do. An electric motorcycle/tuk-tuk or even a Hong Guang Mini. Small engines are very poor efficiency, giving a larger economic reason to switch to electric power before the middle of the car market.

BEVs are more expensive, but have lower fueling and maintenance cost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5558 on: April 26, 2024, 04:13:33 PM »
NEWS: Ford's EV business lost $1.3 billion in Q1 2024.
They said EV revenue was down 84% due to "industry-wide pricing pressure."
4/24/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1783227721201455280
⬇️ Slide below.
 Source:
 https://shareholder.ford.com/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/Q1-2024-Ford-Earnings-Slides-FINAL-NO-SECRET.pdf
 
< LOL. Industry wide? Tesla managed to sell 386k EVs in an industry wide challenge at 17.4% GM :)
<< Translation: "We're screwed because of Tesla’s ability to sell better EVs than us and produce and sell them at a better price than us"

 
—-
Mercedes has officially unveiled the all-electric G-Class.
[Squarish, “off-road vehicle”, although few owners actually drive it off-road.]
• Starting price: $180,000 (estimate)
• Deliveries start late 2024 …
➡️ pic.twitter.com/i65qU1vAQL  8 min. Walk-around.
 
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2025-mercedes-benz-g580-first-look-review/

 
—-
Honda Will Spend $11B To Build EVs, Battery Packs In Canada
Honda has been building cars in Canada since the 1980s, but now it wants to go electric and have a complete local supply chain.
Quote
Today, Honda confirmed plans to expand its manufacturing presence in Canada to build electric vehicles. The Japanese automaker announced a massive $11 billion investment—the largest single automotive investment in Canada’s history—that will lead to the creation of new plants near its existing manufacturing campus in Alliston, Ontario, with the goal of beginning EV production in 2027.
 
The investment will see the construction of four new manufacturing plants: one for EVs, one for battery packs and two plants that will manufacture battery components. Honda intends to create a complete local EV supply chain that will help it build EVs at a competitive price and with a lower environmental impact (it wants to only build EVs and FCEVs after 2040 with the ultimate goal of achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050). …
https://insideevs.com/news/717521/honda-investment-canada-evs/

—-
Panasonic Energy aims for EV battery production in India
April 8, 2024
Quote
Panasonic Energy is discussing a potential joint venture with Indian Oil to produce electric vehicle (EV) batteries in India. The company’s interest in India comes after news broke that Tesla Giga Berlin is producing cars for the country.
 
The Japanese battery supplier plans to produce cylindrical lithium-ion batteries in India. The two companies announced that their potential joint venture aims to cater to the growing demand for batteries for two and three-wheeler vehicles, along with energy storage systems in the Indian market. …
https://www.teslarati.com/panasonic-energy-ev-battery-production-india/

 
—-
Hertz continues to feel EV losses, plans to dump more from its fleet
April 25, 2024
Quote
Hertz reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2024, announcing that it is continuing to lose money on its electric vehicle investment and plans to dump even more EVs from its fleet.

Stephen Scherr, who was CEO when Hertz bought EVs from Tesla, said in October 2023, “We have an opportunity to buy these cars now at roughly a third less than where we bought the initial component of our Teslas. We’re ultimately better buyers at a falling price, and the margin composition on those cars will be better.” …
https://www.teslarati.com/hertz-htz-ev-losses-continue-dump-more-from-fleet/
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nadir

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5559 on: April 26, 2024, 09:18:09 PM »
Excellent summary of the difficulties of bringing electric trucks to Australia.

I am sure folks here gonna cry “FUD” but just think about it, and the plain admission by an EV-committed manufacturer (Kia) of the limitations that current battery technology mean, especially (but not exclusively) for a sparsely populated place and for the supposed utility of these trucks (carrying tons of load).


Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5560 on: April 27, 2024, 12:29:15 AM »
Excellent summary of the difficulties of bringing electric trucks to Australia.

I am sure folks here gonna cry “FUD” but just think about it, and the plain admission by an EV-committed manufacturer (Kia) of the limitations that current battery technology mean, especially (but not exclusively) for a sparsely populated place and for the supposed utility of these trucks (carrying tons of load).

Australia EV sales hit record high in March, as Tesla Model Y overtakes Toyota Hilux ute
https://thedriven.io/2024/04/04/ev-sales-hit-record-high-of-10464-in-march-as-tesla-crashes-into-australias-top-6-brands/
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kiwichick16

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5561 on: April 27, 2024, 12:52:07 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5562 on: April 27, 2024, 04:05:22 PM »
Excellent summary of the difficulties of bringing electric trucks to Australia.

I am sure folks here gonna cry “FUD” but just think about it, and the plain admission by an EV-committed manufacturer (Kia) of the limitations that current battery technology mean, especially (but not exclusively) for a sparsely populated place and for the supposed utility of these trucks (carrying tons of load).

Maybe for Kia.  Not for Tesla.  There’s a strong interest in Cybertruck there. With plenty of Superchargers in the most populated regions of Australia & New Zealand (and more on the way).

“Visit us to get up close and see Cybertruck for yourself. RSVP to secure your spot today.”
 
Cybertruck tour:
Quote
Tesla Australia & New Zealand
@TeslaAUNZ

Tesla Sydney: 26 April - 5 May 2024
Tesla Chatswood: 6 - 12 May 2024
Tesla Parramatta: 13 - 19 May 2024
Tesla Miranda: 20 - 26 May 2024

http://tesla.com/event/cybertruck-on-display-in-sydney--nsw
 
4/26/24, https://x.com/teslaaunz/status/1783803607693103193

Cybertruck Maximum Towing Capacity. 11,000 lb (4,990 kg)
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Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5563 on: April 28, 2024, 05:02:25 PM »
Excellent summary of the difficulties of bringing electric trucks to Australia.

I am sure folks here gonna cry “FUD” but just think about it, and the plain admission by an EV-committed manufacturer (Kia) of the limitations that current battery technology mean, especially (but not exclusively) for a sparsely populated place and for the supposed utility of these trucks (carrying tons of load).

Australia EV sales hit record high in March, as Tesla Model Y overtakes Toyota Hilux ute
https://thedriven.io/2024/04/04/ev-sales-hit-record-high-of-10464-in-march-as-tesla-crashes-into-australias-top-6-brands/

Massive cherry-picking!!!
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gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5564 on: April 28, 2024, 05:43:57 PM »
Excellent summary of the difficulties of bringing electric trucks to Australia.

I am sure folks here gonna cry “FUD” but just think about it, and the plain admission by an EV-committed manufacturer (Kia) of the limitations that current battery technology mean, especially (but not exclusively) for a sparsely populated place and for the supposed utility of these trucks (carrying tons of load).

Australia EV sales hit record high in March, as Tesla Model Y overtakes Toyota Hilux ute
https://thedriven.io/2024/04/04/ev-sales-hit-record-high-of-10464-in-march-as-tesla-crashes-into-australias-top-6-brands/

Massive cherry-picking!!!
So let us talk about heavy trucks in Australia

Australia is a big place but "sparsely populated"?

Yes and No

There are 26  million Australians but
Quote
A COASTAL POPULATION — 87% of Australia's population lives within 50 kilometres of the coast, an increase of 2% since 2001. This equates to more than 22 million Australians now calling the coast home.

So when you look at the National Highway Network, most medium / heavy truck journeys are well within the range of the latest electric trucks, and if not will be fairly soon.

There are a few extremely long routes through the empty places, and ordinary chargers exist, but not superchargers. It would not be a big deal to put in a supercharger network along these routes complete with their own solar/wind power.

So most trucks could be electric now or in a few years, even if some landtrains would still be diesel.

80% is a lot better than 0%
« Last Edit: April 28, 2024, 11:35:22 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5565 on: May 01, 2024, 01:38:45 PM »
Due to an unanticipated following wind we felt it prudent to bring the "surreal soft launch" forward by a couple of months:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1785572116118548899

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« Last Edit: May 01, 2024, 11:32:37 PM by Jim Hunt »
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nadir

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5566 on: May 01, 2024, 03:37:22 PM »
That’s a nice promised car (if you charge at home). But at least the car is between 20,000€ and 30,000€ depending on the specs. There’s a version that promises 500 km… new, in good weather, tailwinds, not too loaded, etc , but it’s already better than the Renault Zoe.

There is a growing race in Europe for brands to provide small affordable EVs, which makes a lot of sense. Something similar happened in the 70s and beginning of 80s with the oil crunch. Europe responded initially with smaller cars, and as engine efficiency improved, cars started to grow in size again. We may see something similar as EV tech matures.

Ofc Tesla is nowhere to be seen here, it has its focus, or lack thereof, on robotaxis. And anyway a 25,000$ Tesla would be surely horrendous compared to the charming Renault 5, imo.

NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5567 on: May 01, 2024, 07:52:09 PM »
Ofc Tesla is nowhere to be seen here, it has its focus, or lack thereof, on robotaxis. And anyway a 25,000$ Tesla would be surely horrendous compared to the charming Renault 5, imo.

Have you tried owning and servicing one?

Personal family experience is that this is not for the faint hearted or those with shallow pockets.

BTW the local Renault garage in our town in France has gone under in the last 6 months.....
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5568 on: May 02, 2024, 07:17:35 AM »
Have you tried owning and servicing one?

Do you mean a Tesla, or an original R5, or ???

Meanwhile the antics of my "professional" alter ego may amuse residents of the once Great Britain?

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1785894993946690017

Quote
Au contraire Mr. Mogg.

Do you prefer the bright yellow R5 E-Tech livery, or the bright green one?

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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5569 on: May 02, 2024, 07:58:53 PM »
Do you mean a Tesla, or an original R5, or ???

Any Renault.  According to my family they are made of high quality extortion material when they go wrong.
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nadir

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5570 on: May 02, 2024, 08:38:26 PM »
Ofc Tesla is nowhere to be seen here, it has its focus, or lack thereof, on robotaxis. And anyway a 25,000$ Tesla would be surely horrendous compared to the charming Renault 5, imo.

Have you tried owning and servicing one?

Personal family experience is that this is not for the faint hearted or those with shallow pockets.

BTW the local Renault garage in our town in France has gone under in the last 6 months.....

No, but it looks great. I hope J. Hunt’s experience is positive. We need EVs that are affordable, reliable and practical. From the specs and price this looks good but who knows! At least it’s not a goddamn Tesla!

Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5571 on: May 02, 2024, 10:01:00 PM »
Norwegian EV Market Surges to 91.5% Market Share, Setting a Sustainable Example

Wonder how they can afford this with all those taxes?

And by the way, what were the numbers from Big America?


https://alternative-fuels-observatory.ec.europa.eu/general-information/news/norwegian-ev-market-surges-915-market-share-setting-sustainable-example

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gerontocrat

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5572 on: May 02, 2024, 10:24:33 PM »

And by the way, what were the numbers from Big America?



Table attached - click to enlarge
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5573 on: May 03, 2024, 04:29:32 AM »
Any Renault.

But the new ones are constructed from recycled Pacific garbage patch?
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5574 on: May 03, 2024, 05:33:01 PM »
Any Renault.

But the new ones are constructed from recycled Pacific garbage patch?

Well I'm sure it is very PC, but it won't be cheap....  Especially as they had to burn all that bunker fuel to get to the said Pacific garbage patch...
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5575 on: May 03, 2024, 06:10:48 PM »
Any Renault.

But the new ones are constructed from recycled Pacific garbage patch?

Well I'm sure it is very PC, but it won't be cheap....  Especially as they had to burn all that bunker fuel to get to the said Pacific garbage patch...

So it would be better to leave the garbage where it was?
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NeilT

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5576 on: May 04, 2024, 12:05:04 AM »
So it would be better to leave the garbage where it was?

No they would be better collecting it and processing it into something like fuel on site and not shipping it back to make an Eco statement.

That fuel could run the collection and removal of the mess.

I am deeply suspicious of "Eco" statements like this.  They are rarely balanced and regularly more harmful than not doing it.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5577 on: May 04, 2024, 05:17:14 PM »
Mea culpa.

I thought it was obviously a joke. The actual R5 blurb states:

Quote
Robust, original and welcoming, the denim upholstery makes a stylish contribution to the fun nature of Renault 5 E-Tech electric. Made from 100% recycled plastic (PET) water bottles, this denim fabric is used on the seats, dashboard and door panels on the Techno version.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5578 on: May 04, 2024, 06:54:17 PM »
The highly touted new Chinese EV entrant, the SU7 (“soo-chee” in Chinese) by Xiaomi, has plastic body panels — which may have difficulty staying attached…. (see below)
The factory is “100% robotic,” but that does not guarantee good quality.
 
Priced at about $30,000 to $41,500, it starts about about $4,000 cheaper than Tesla’s Model 3 sedan. 
The exterior is “very aerodynamic,” with Taycan vibes. Boasts of a fast 0-60 time and a long range.  (Probably because it is very light….)

The factory is said to be 100% robotic, producing a car every 76 seconds.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/G67Vybfu3V  25 sec. in the factory. Well, in the video, the logo is put on by hand…. ;)

But already there are quality problems:
➡️ pic.twitter.com/Iv2OaONNar  10 sec. Loose plastic side panel flaps about, failure of cheap snap clips.
< That’s one hell of a panel gap
<<  I wonder about its crash safety.

 
Xiaomi is a 14 yr old cellphone company, now making EVs, also.
It is the first Xiaomi vehicle, and is manufactured under contract by BAIC Off-road in Beijing.

China’s Xiaomi joins the crowded EV race with ‘dream car’ to take on Tesla
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/28/business/chinas-xiaomi-ev-launch-intl-hnk/index.html

Xiaomi secured 75,723 orders and delivered 5,781 units in 28 days
4/24/24, https://x.com/jas0nyu/status/1783313147115216967

   —-
Quote
Lei Jun
 
Just 32 days after the launch of Xiaomi SU7, our Xiaomi EV Factory has achieved a 10,000 production milestone!🎉
4/28/24, https://x.com/leijun/status/1784771501910356458
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/6CfmxXzjv6  pics
« Last Edit: May 04, 2024, 07:08:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5579 on: May 04, 2024, 07:11:52 PM »
Looking more interesting than we've seen from your favorite?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5580 on: May 04, 2024, 07:14:51 PM »
Looking more interesting than we've seen from your favorite?

Only if by “interesting” you mean poorly-constructed Chinese death trap.
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Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5581 on: May 04, 2024, 07:20:59 PM »
Looking more interesting than we've seen from your favorite?

Only if by “interesting” you mean poorly-constructed Chinese death trap.

Had I known that you were objective, I might have given you the right, but I heard the same arguments when Toyota entered Europe / USA and later Hyandai / Kia, but your lack of objectivity in this forum makes me not believe much in what you write!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5582 on: May 04, 2024, 07:28:11 PM »
…your lack of objectivity in this forum makes me not believe much in what you write!

Right back at ‘cha.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2024, 07:53:32 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5583 on: May 04, 2024, 07:33:59 PM »
…your lack of objectivity in this forum makes me not believe much in what you write!

Right back at ‘cha.

it's an image what does it prove?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5584 on: May 04, 2024, 07:54:51 PM »
Think the lightweight SU7 would fare this well?
 
Quote
This Model Y flipped more than 7 times and all the passengers walked away mostly unharmed.
@Tesla has the safest cars in the world.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/6F3neeNGPO  3 sec. Watch left side of screen!
 
5/2/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1786056122475930086

➡️ pic.twitter.com/yhbEafQqu1  slightly longer clip.

大趙 @zhongwen2005
The #Tesla's safety is well documented, with more than a dozen airborne tumbles that left drivers and passengers unharmed
5/1/24, https://x.com/zhongwen2005/status/1785874906489803087
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/yJrApVjE4H  24 sec, walk by the trashed car from the above video, still in the street, with occupants still in the car.  Audio on: “ 特斯拉 !”  [“Tesla!”]
 
< Dude is already ordering his new Tesla.

=======

Quote
Lin Bin is co-founder and vice chairman of Xiaomi. He came to America to personally experience FSD and here is his feedback based on his first test drive on April 26, 2024:

“Just went to the Tesla store to experience the FSD v12. Started from the parking lot, went onto the highway, merged into traffic, got off the highway, went to the city, and finally returned back to the parking lot. It took more than 10 minutes to travel 10 kilometers. Although there are not many vehicles, there is no need for high-precision maps and no LIDAR, it is completely based on pure visual modeling. I'm very impressed. “

Further comments from him: "FSD feels like a human driver. Look forward to going for a test drive in a more crowded place”.
4/29/24, https://x.com/ray4tesla/status/1784987176452940273

Teslas regularly outperform other vehicles, many with LiDAR, in safety tests….
 
Here some highlights from the latest crash tests: ➡️ pic.twitter.com/kx31DnhFMv  26 sec. EuroNCAP.  Quick clips of cars hitting test kids, pedestrians, cyclists. VW, NIO, Mercedes, Vinfast, Hyundai, BYD
« Last Edit: May 04, 2024, 08:09:32 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5585 on: May 04, 2024, 08:31:13 PM »
NEWS: Lotus partners with Nio for battery swapping.
Nio now has 2,404 battery swapping stations in China.
https://www.electrive.com/2024/04/27/lotus-partners-with-nio-for-battery-swapping/

—-
Quote
Audi with Catastrophic Result in Q1

YoY
Revenue -€3 Billion or -19%
Profit -€1 Billion or halved
Unit Sales - 4.7%
Cash flow -€768 million
Margin 3.4% (2023: 10.8%)

BEV Sales
Europe 5434
USA 5714
China 4970

CFO Rittberger after the poor results: "As expected, 2024 will be a year of transition for us". "This is particularly evident in the first quarter, which was characterized by a tense supply situation, among other things."

The downturn of the 🇩🇪 German Auto Industry is in full swing and the Audi CFO claims they had a weak supply situation. 😏
5/3/24,  https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1786326204699599288
 
pic.twitter.com/dC5Iq0i2Ea  Pic: data, German.  “Welt” = World.
 
 
—-
Near Sacramento, California

NEWS: After a multi-month pilot program, the Folsom Police Department has added a Tesla Model 3 and Model Y to their fleet of vehicles.
The Folsom Police Department has been operating hybrid vehicles for a number of years, but these will be their first fully electric vehicles.
 
Folsom is not the first California city to add Teslas to its police fleet nor is it the first Sacramento-area city to do so either.

In August, Folsom City Council approved a $108k purchase order for the two Teslas.
https://fox40.com/news/local-news/sacramento-county/folsom/folsom-police-welcome-teslas-to-vehicle-fleet/

—-
May 2, 2024
Rivian secures $827 million in funding from the state of Illinois… in the form of tax benefits over 30 years.
So $25 million in tax breaks a year.
pic.twitter.com/GZOKgmNBKQ 
Quote
Rivian Automotive Inc. will receive incentives valued at $827 million from Illinois to expand its electric-vehicle plant in the state after the company halted work on a separate facility in Georgia.
 
The 30-year package consists primarily of tax benefits under the Reimagining Energy and Vehicles in Illinois program, according to a statement Thursday from the governor's office. Rivian is set to receive $75 million in capital funding under a separate state initiative.
Quote
The Illinois plant, where Rivian also makes its electric delivery vans for its largest investor, Amazon.com, can produce 150,000 vehicles a year, the company said.
 
Rivian will be producing its less-expensive midsize SUV R2 model, unveiled in March and will take on Tesla's Model Y, at the plant
With the addition of the R2, Rivian expects a total annual capacity of 215,000 vehicles.
 
The company said the funds from the state of Illinois would be spent on expanding the plant, improving public infrastructure and job training programs for its workforce.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rivian-receives-827-million-incentive-183603526.html
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5586 on: May 05, 2024, 02:38:13 AM »
…your lack of objectivity in this forum makes me not believe much in what you write!

Right back at ‘cha.

Praise Elon. Praise be. Praise Elon. Praise be. Praise Elon…

Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5587 on: May 05, 2024, 07:54:35 AM »
The tentative future of EVs in the near future looks vague, especially in the dominant Western economies and especially in the US:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-interest-in-electric-vehicles-has-stalled-over-3-years-in-one-chart-9a99ae77?mod=watchlist_main_news

By Victor Reklaitis

Younger Americans are particularly aware of Chinese EV brands, survey finds

The promised American switch to electric vehicles from gas-engine cars is hitting speed bumps, and a new survey offers fresh indications of that slowdown.

As shown in the middle chart above, the percentage of Americans who say they're very or moderately likely to buy a battery electric vehicle, or BEV, has stagnated. It came in at 35% in the survey conducted by consulting firm AlixPartners - the same level as in 2021.

In the U.S. and European markets, BEVs are "mostly satisfying early adopters," while China "now operates like a mature BEV market, with consumers seeing BEVs as a natural choice," said Mark Wakefield, AlixPartners's global co-leader for its automotive and industrial practice, in a statement last week as the survey's results were released.

American and European buyers are turning to plug-in hybrid EVs, or PHEVs - seeing them as a "completely legitimate substitute for meeting near-term needs and addressing charging and range concerns," said Arun Kuman, global co-leader for advanced mobility at AlixPartners.

Related: Ford's stock rises as EV losses are held in check and hybrid sales surge

The significant concerns around charging and driving range are shown in the additional chart below.

Electric vehicles have become increasingly politicized, with the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, often criticizing President Joe Biden's policies that seek to accelerate the shift away from internal combustion engines. On the other hand, Republicans and Democrats do see eye to eye on inexpensive Chinese EVs, as there are bipartisan calls to keep such cars out of the U.S.

See: One thing Biden and Trump agree on: Keeping this $10,000 Chinese EV out of the U.S.

The AlixPartners survey found Americans have some awareness of Chinese EV brands. Among those who are very likely or moderately likely to buy BEVs, 21% were aware of BYD (HK:1211) (CN:002594), 20% knew of Leapmotor (HK:9863) and 14% knew of Nio (NIO) and Hozon Auto. In addition, 73% of those consumers said they would consider buying or leasing a Chinese EV if it were priced 20% lower than a similar non-Chinese car.

Younger Americans were especially aware of Chinese EV brands, as shown in the chart below.

The AlixPartners survey was conducted from March 28 to April 10, reaching 9,000 respondents across eight countries.

Rental-car chain Hertz (HTZ) has been among the U.S. companies hammered by weaker-than-expected demand for electric vehicles. Hertz's stock plunged 26% last week as the company reported a wider-than-anticipated quarterly loss and expanded its plan to sell off its EV fleet.

Meanwhile, U.S. EV pioneer Tesla (TSLA) reported sharp drops in its quarterly profit and revenue last week, though investors cheered its promise of an affordable EV by early next year.

Electric vehicles are likely to make up 8% of new-car sales in the U.S. this year, up just a little from their share of 6.9% in 2023, according an Edmunds estimate.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5588 on: May 05, 2024, 05:11:54 PM »
Is anyone surprised that a targeted media disinformation campaign has been successful?

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5589 on: May 05, 2024, 05:12:21 PM »
Mea culpa.

I thought it was obviously a joke. The actual R5 blurb states:

Quote
Robust, original and welcoming, the denim upholstery makes a stylish contribution to the fun nature of Renault 5 E-Tech electric. Made from 100% recycled plastic (PET) water bottles, this denim fabric is used on the seats, dashboard and door panels on the Techno version.

It wasn´t that hard to spot but this interlude was funny.  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5590 on: May 05, 2024, 06:55:24 PM »
Now that EVs have reached price parity with ICE cars, Fossil Fuel interests view EV growth as a threat they can no longer laugh at, or ignore.
 
Quote
NEWS: 18 Senate Republicans have introduced legislation to end the federal electric vehicle & charging stations tax credit.
 
“There is no reason that U.S. taxpayers should be bankrolling luxury electric vehicle purchases for wealthy individuals or foreign entities,” Capito said.

Source:  https://www.bdtonline.com/news/bill-introduced-to-stop-electric-vehicle-tax-credits/article_d28b3104-0963-11ef-a6f2-27f5ab7d80c2.html
 
5/5/24, 11:42 AM. https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1787145910490739170

  So lets end the tens of billions per year in U.S. oil and gas subsidies!
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Espen

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5591 on: May 05, 2024, 07:15:08 PM »
Now that EVs have reached price parity with ICE cars, Fossil Fuel interests view EV growth as a threat they can no longer laugh at, or ignore.
 
Quote
NEWS: 18 Senate Republicans have introduced legislation to end the federal electric vehicle & charging stations tax credit.
 
“There is no reason that U.S. taxpayers should be bankrolling luxury electric vehicle purchases for wealthy individuals or foreign entities,” Capito said.

They have realized that they will be run over by Chinese EV manufacturers as the Japanese did long ago, Tesla invited with "luxury" EVs and .....


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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5592 on: May 10, 2024, 07:36:16 PM »
—- BMW Q1 Earnings Results
Quote
Profit -19.4%
Margin 8.8% or -3.3% YoY (2023: 12.1%)
Cash Flow -93%
Unit sales +1.1%

Tesla will likely overtake BMWs unit sales soon and I didn't even mention FSD. …
5/8/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1788150404317958158
⬇️ graph below by brand  pic.twitter.com/AIJMSw3RTD 
 
 
—- Fisker
Henrik Fisker is selling his Hollywood home for $35 million: report
teslarati.com/henrik-fisker-… [ https://t.co/zp33X04lnh ]
 
5/1/24, https://x.com/teslarati/status/1785881165377007975
 
Fisker files for ‘reorganization’ in Austria after halting production
May 7, 2024
Quote
After electric vehicle (EV) maker Fisker halted production at its contract manufacturer’s plant in Austria, the company has now filed for reorganization and court protection in the country.
 
The reorganization filing, which is similar to filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S., comes as Fisker has warned of going bankrupt if it can’t find additional financing. Fisker has also officially halted production of its Ocean EV at a plant in Graz, Austria, which is run by its contracted manufacturer Magna Steyr.

… Fisker has warned of substantial job cuts within the next couple of months.
Magna Steyr has also announced plans to let go of 500 workers at the plant in Graz, due to the production of multiple models, including the Ocean, being halted (via Automotive News).
 
Other models being paused or ending this year include the BMW 5 Series and both the Jaguar E-Pace and I-Pace. Still, others like the platform-sharing BMW Z4 and Toyota Supra are expected to stop production in 2026, though the plant will continue building the Mercedes G-Class and eventually an electric version of the vehicle.
“The next three years will be very difficult in Graz,” said Roland Prettner, Magna Steyr CEO to an Austrian news outlet.
 
In February, Fisker said it would be cutting around 15 percent of its staff gloablly, as it continued to seek additional equity or debt financing. Although the company was reportedly in talks and later gained a commitment of $150 million, the deal later fell through.
https://www.teslarati.com/fisker-reorganization-austria-production/

 
—- Here is the production line for the $340,000 hand built Cadillac Celestiq EV.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/3FtCccQtcG  2 min. Mary & journalist walk through the factory.
 
IRONY ALERT: they pronounce it “Sell-LESS-tik”
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeWWmARalVQ&feature=youtu.be
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5593 on: May 10, 2024, 08:25:07 PM »
Now that EVs have reached price parity with ICE cars, Fossil Fuel interests view EV growth as a threat they can no longer laugh at, or ignore.

“There is no reason that U.S. taxpayers should be bankrolling luxury electric vehicle purchases for wealthy individuals or foreign entities,” Capito said.

So lets end the tens of billions per year in U.S. oil and gas subsidies!

i can still buy a basic toyota, honda or suburu for under $25k cdn. and know what i'm getting into. big difference.

we should end all subsidies across the board, then we'd know the true cost of energy.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5594 on: May 10, 2024, 10:35:33 PM »
Quote
i can still buy a basic toyota, honda or suburu for under $25k cdn
I suppose getting one out of three right is exceptional for you.
Cheapest Toyota may just scrape in when  you include on road costs with the mrrp.
 https://driving.ca/2024/cheapest-subaru-cars/ $26,795
https://driving.ca/2024/cheapest-toyota-cars/ $23,490
https://driving.ca/2024/cheapest-honda-cars/ $26,790
https://driving.ca/features/shopping-advice/new-vehicle-cost-higher-than-advertised

Factor in running cost over the time of your ownership and a cheap ev wins every time.

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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5595 on: May 10, 2024, 11:19:24 PM »
we should end all subsidies across the board, then we'd know the true cost of energy.

Something Elon has asked for many times.  Whilst subsidies continue they will take them.  But Tesla is ready to sell with zero subsidies. All they ask is everyone else is on the same level playing field including fuel.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5596 on: May 11, 2024, 09:05:42 AM »
More gloom from Ford

https://www.autospies.com/news/Ford-Begins-Cutting-Supplier-Battery-Orders-As-Electric-Vehicle-Market-Sours-121289/
Quote
Ford Begins Cutting Supplier Battery Orders As Electric Vehicle Market Sours

Ford Motor Co. has initiated a significant change in its electric vehicle (EV) strategy by cutting battery orders from suppliers. This move comes as the company faces substantial losses exceeding $100,000 per EV sold, signaling a challenging period for the automotive giant amidst waning demand for its electric offerings.

 
The decision to reduce battery orders is a strategic response to the financial strain caused by the underperformance of Ford's EV lineup. With losses mounting, the company is reevaluating its approach to the EV market, focusing on reducing costs and optimizing its operational strategy. This shift in strategy is not only a reflection of Ford's internal challenges but also an indication of broader market dynamics, where consumer preferences and economic conditions are in flux.
 
Suppliers in South Korea and China, key players in the global battery supply chain, are grappling with the consequences of Ford's decision. The reduction in orders has left them with unsold inventory, posing potential financial risks and operational challenges. This situation underscores the interconnectedness of the automotive industry and the ripple effect that strategic decisions by major players can have on the broader supply chain.
 
As Ford navigates this challenging period, the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences will be critical. The success of its revised EV strategy will not only impact its financial performance but also shape its position in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5597 on: May 11, 2024, 10:42:50 AM »
If anybody from the once Great Britain is anywhere near Harrogate on 24-26th May perhaps we could get together for a chat over coffee, or beer?

I'll be speaking on the V2H panel in the Everything Electric North Giga Theatre at lunchtime on Sunday:

https://uk.everythingelectric.show/north/programme/grid-x-home-x-car-come-together-2035

I'll be there for the whole 3 days of the show and then some.
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Re: Electric cars
« Reply #5598 on: May 13, 2024, 03:09:26 PM »
Thanks for the Invite Jim but I'm in France till early June sadly.  Otherwise I'd have made the time to come and have a beer.

Have a good show.
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