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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 59

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 1737792 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7450 on: July 10, 2020, 03:07:07 PM »
This Is Not a Normal Mental-Health Disaster
If SARS is any lesson, the psychological effects of the novel coronavirus will long outlast the pandemic itself.


Link >> https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-special-mental-health-disaster/613510/

(It obviously already caused a wave of paranoia)

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7451 on: July 10, 2020, 03:14:43 PM »
@TrumpClassics via Twitter:

Quote
Man, all these doctors and
nurses and microbiologists and
immunologist and
epidemiologists and other
researchers keep saying COVID
is dangerous but all these dudes
went to high school with and
barely passed science say its
not dangerous. Its hard to know
who to believe anymore.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 03:38:34 PM by blumenkraft »

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7452 on: July 10, 2020, 03:25:24 PM »
That is a picture of someones tweet and it does not further our understanding one iota. It serves no function here. Please remove it.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7453 on: July 10, 2020, 04:23:30 PM »
Neven are you seriously comparing the star of David forced on jews during the holocaust to mask-wearing?

Seriously?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7454 on: July 10, 2020, 04:37:42 PM »
Neven,

I stopped posting because of pure ass stupidity and anti-science lunacy of many of the posts that were being made on this forum. I had enormous respect for yοu personally and all of the work you have done in creating and supporting the importance of  arctic ice awareness and dangers of climate change.

But your posts on this topic make clear that you fallen into a deep dark hole of misinformation, denial and bullshit.

I’m done. You are a loon.

Now we wait to see just how many people have to die because of morons such as you.  Tragic.

Sam
« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 04:44:26 PM by Sam »

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7455 on: July 10, 2020, 04:47:12 PM »
Sam, many here appreciate your posts and perspective. I'm glad you returned. I hope you continue to post and ignore what deserves to be ignored.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7456 on: July 10, 2020, 05:08:01 PM »
What Dnem said!

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7457 on: July 10, 2020, 06:25:16 PM »
Epidemiologically speaking, this virus is very similar to influenza. In fact, influenza would be way more deadly if it were novel, and kill many more young people. This virus was presented as some alien zombie killer virus and all kinds of stupid, cowardly decisions were made because of it. And now, people are so deeply invested in this narrative that it is impossible to get out of. The media is a sensationalist propaganda machine as never witnessed before.

Neven,

It's really nothing like the influenza virus.

The novel coronavirus attacks the brain and blood vessels and can cause permanent brain/lung/heart damage.

The coronavirus has an R0 as high as smallpox, the flu is barely 2.0.

The coronavirus has a 20% critical illness rate of those tested, and a sky-high death rate well into the 5% range of those tested.

The coronavirus survives in the air for 16 hours and lasts for days on surfaces.

In fact the only similarities to the flu is 1)  can cause rapid death by pneumonia, 2) the fact that there's no lasting immunity.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7458 on: July 10, 2020, 06:30:46 PM »
USA Time to keep an eye on the daily deaths 7 day trailing average
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7459 on: July 10, 2020, 06:42:25 PM »
It has now become clear that in a reasonably healthy population the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.2% at most. If it is higher than that it is because of demographics, environmental conditions and general population health (which is very low in most parts of the world), and these factors are heavily influenced by the global neoliberal system of endless growth.
New York City had zip codes with mortality over 0.5 % of the population. Maybe the population was older than average but so am I.

I am not convinced that masks are useful. I am deferring to the judgement of epidemiologists in Scandinavia, the Netherlands, etc. It is not something where "common sense" decides the issue. Nor does a comparison with a star.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7460 on: July 10, 2020, 07:09:11 PM »
Goodbye Sam. Terribly sorry to see you go.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7461 on: July 10, 2020, 08:56:13 PM »
US Bets $0.5 Billion On Small, Untested Company to Deliver COVID Vaccine
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-small-untested-company-covid-vaccine.html

When precious vats of COVID-19 vaccine are finally ready, jabbing the lifesaving solution into the arms of Americans will require hundreds of millions of injections.

As part of its strategy to administer the vaccine as quickly as possible, the Trump administration has agreed to invest more than half a billion in tax dollars in ApiJect Systems America, a young company whose injector is not approved by federal health authorities and that hasn't yet set up a factory to manufacture the devices.

The commitment to ApiJect dwarfs the other needle orders the government has placed with a major manufacturer and two other small companies.

"The fact of this matter is, it would be crazy for people to just rely on us. I would be the first to say it," said ApiJect CEO Jay Walker. "We should be America's backup at this point, but probably not its primary."

Trump administration officials would not say why they are investing so heavily in ApiJect's technology. The company has made only about 1,000 prototypes to date, and it's not clear whether those devices can deliver the vaccines that are currently in development. So far, the leading candidates are using traditional vials to hold the vaccine, and needles and syringes in their clinical trials.

ApiJect received a no-bid contract earlier this year from the Defense Department under an exception for "unusual and compelling urgency." Authorities said the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, tasked with buying the necessary supplies, "does not have the resources or capacity to conduct procurements necessary to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic," according to a June 5 military document.

... An estimated 700 million injections may be needed to inoculate the nation—at least two shots for every person, according to the military document.

The government promised ApiJect $138 million to produce 100 million of its devices by the end of the year, which will require the company to retrofit new manufacturing lines in existing factories. And it's offered another $456 million as part of a public-private partnership contract to bring online several new factories to make another 500 million devices to "contain the pandemic spread to minimize the loss of life and impact to the United States economy," said the document.

These amounts are more than double the per-syringe cost the government is paying other companies for the work.



... Despite the race to replenish the domestic needle and syringe supply, about 400 shipping containers of syringes have left the U.S. for countries including Germany, Colombia, Australia, Brazil and Italy this year, according to Panjiva Inc., a service that independently tracks global trade. That's the same, on average, as syringe exports over the past five years.

... Testing different vaccine candidates in the ApiJect devices will be critical before injecting the public.

Plastic could interact differently with the liquid than the glass vials currently used in trials, experts say. And there are strict temperature requirements. ApiJect's planned process is to pour vaccine doses into the warm plastic blisters as they come off the production line, the company says. ApiJect says they can instantly cool the devices as they are made.

Walker, the ApiJect CEO, who founded the online travel agency Priceline, acknowledges that the government's decision to rely on "an emergency plan of refitting established pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities is risky. But we feel good about it."

The Associated Press asked the Health and Human Services department over many weeks to explain the government's approach. The agency didn't allow an official to speak on the record for this story.

When AP reached out directly to Trump's vaccine czar, Moncef Slaoui, to discuss the new technology, a spokesperson said the query was inappropriate.

"If this continues, we will make no one else available either," Natalie Baldassarre, a special assistant at HHS, wrote in an email.

Last week, HHS Assistant Secretary of Public Affairs Michael Caputo wrote that the agency has "lost interest in assisting your story" and offered no further comment.

---------------------------

« Last Edit: July 10, 2020, 09:05:19 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7462 on: July 10, 2020, 09:24:39 PM »
I've had a look at the 7 day averages for daily new cases and daily deaths.

World - deaths quickly up as new cases rise.

USA - deaths not yet rising in line with recent increase in daily new cases - but we know hospitalisations are up, so the grim reaper is standing by.

Active cases in US reached a low on Jun 4. Deaths possibly now showing an increase from about month later (perhaps still in doubt re July 4 holiday effects). Surprisingly long delay? Other countries showing more like 12 day delay.

Is this somehow due to different timing of peaks in different areas of US?

Or US treatments improving markedly in relevant period to keep deaths low despite increasing number of active cases?

Tempted to throw in US medical systems keeps people alive longer to extract more medical fees but that is perhaps a little unfair being unlikely to have sufficient effect to explain this.

or a combination of several different effects?

or .... ?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7463 on: July 10, 2020, 09:24:46 PM »
Come back, Sam.  :'(
Please.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7464 on: July 10, 2020, 09:33:13 PM »
People, Sam gave me a couple long PMs on his thoughts on the C-19 situation recently. I asked if I could post them, but he never answered yea or nay. Would it be appropriate for me to do so, now that he is gone?

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7465 on: July 10, 2020, 09:35:54 PM »
Would it be appropriate for me to do so, now that he is gone?

IMHO, no.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7466 on: July 10, 2020, 09:40:27 PM »
Could other people ask me for a PMed copy of his PMs, not to post publicly? Or would even that be too much?

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7467 on: July 10, 2020, 09:44:57 PM »
I just spent an hour reviewing Sams post.

What a great loss for ASIF.

Sam's estimates of the CFR were spot on. Remember, CFR is not IFR.

The IFR matters to politicians and epidemiologists and it is somewhere between 0.5%-1% and dropping.

The CFR is still 4.46%, hovering well inside the range given by Sam since February.


Neven, 0.2% is not the upper bound of fatality for an average healthy society. 0.2% is the lower bound, and it is highly questionable.

The evidence posted here has been overwhelming. You need to stop misinforming.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7468 on: July 10, 2020, 09:49:12 PM »
Since you don't know if Sam is fine with you sharing private messages i would dehort.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7469 on: July 10, 2020, 09:52:21 PM »
Also, Neven, it matters not a squirt what the IFR or CFR for what you consider a "healthy" population would be, since as you yourself admit, 99 and 44/100s Percent of the population is not what you consider "healthy".

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7470 on: July 10, 2020, 10:23:08 PM »
I am sickened that Sam has been chased from this forum again.  I so value his contributions and wish he would reconsider.  There are a couple of (ahem) untraditional voices here, but for the most part, there are many smart, science-based contributors that I learn a lot from. I just tune out the others...

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7471 on: July 10, 2020, 10:45:12 PM »
People make their own choices as to what is important.
Divisive issues seem to be politics and this is also a touchy subject while they are both not the main subject of the forum.

No one chased Sam, he made a choice. People are free to do so.
He basically made a choice not to discuss or participate in the discussion.





Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

John Batteen

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7472 on: July 10, 2020, 11:17:41 PM »
I'm just recovering from presumptive COVID.  My test came back "undetected" (not conclusively negative) but it's the strangest sickness I have ever had, totally unlike anything else, with symptoms straight off the CDC list.  My doc said there are lots of false negatives and he thinks I had it.  It sucked.  I was sick for 12 days.  For me, it was worse than a cold, not as bad as the flu, but I'm 30 years old and healthy as a horse.  I'm very concerned for my 67 year old Trump voting father who thinks it's all a hoax and is living life like normal.  It's not if but when he gets sick, and I put his odds of survival at 50/50.  He has some lung issues.

I too can't help but see nearly every government worldwide seizing this opportunity to grab some more power.  The virus is very real and worse than the flu, I'm no COVID denier, but the accumulation of wealth and power that's resulted from the fallout is insane.  The wealthiest few people in the USA have acquired a great deal more wealth over the last few months.  It's so hard to try to figure out what's real and what's BS when almost everyone has an incentive to lie.  We're not going to untangle this web of deception for decades.  It's not an either/or situation, either COVID is real or it's all one massive conspiracy.  It's both/and.  COVID is real and there is some major dirt happening right now.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7473 on: July 10, 2020, 11:26:52 PM »
OMG, I'm taking back all those terrible things I said. Sam, please come back, I beg you!
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7474 on: July 10, 2020, 11:40:26 PM »
I just spent an hour reviewing Sams post.

What a great loss for ASIF.

Sam's estimates of the CFR were spot on. Remember, CFR is not IFR.

The IFR matters to politicians and epidemiologists and it is somewhere between 0.5%-1% and dropping.

The CFR is still 4.46%, hovering well inside the range given by Sam since February.

That's interesting, I just went through the first 11 pages of this thread as well. Sam:

Quote
Take the 8,650 count of confirmed infected persons today and move it back in time 6 days by dividing by 1.42^6 = 1,055 people in the cohort those who died came from. Now divide 170 by 1,055. The result = 16.1% of the cohort dying. Take that with a huge grain of salt. We know from SARS that it's death rate averaged about 10%. MERS averaged about 40%. So 16% is not unreasonable. But this is a really tentative calculation based on lots of assumptions using exponential growth data. It would likely be safe to assume that the actual death rate is somewhere in the range of 10-20% based on these parameters.

Quote
The latest paper suggests that the appropriate delay (admission to death) is a little over 5 days indicating a ~12% case fatality rate.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7475 on: July 10, 2020, 11:46:41 PM »
One of the silliest metrics I've seen used regarding CFR is to assume that antibody tests are accurate, and base the numbers on those figures.

In reality, we can only scientifically conclude the CFR based on the number of confirmed versus dead - CFRs are clearly in the 5-10% range.

Critical illness rate of 20% or higher.

Without hospitalization, we're looking at 10-20% CFR.

This is like the flu...the 1918 Spanish flu.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7476 on: July 10, 2020, 11:49:13 PM »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7477 on: July 10, 2020, 11:51:06 PM »
Neven, I get the feeling the "OMG" post above is said jokingly. However, I think you did say terrible things, and I cringed reading that post. Among other things, you implied Sam was "a paranoid, germophobe, OCD hypochondriac" and this did not fall within forum decorum, IMHO. It's your forum and you can do as you please in it, but I feel the need to voice my position on the matter anyway.

Besides, science is not on your side in this case. IFR is certainly higher than 0.2% for real populations, and epidemiologically speaking this is worse than the flu. Not liking the politics of an issue doesn't give license to change the facts of an issue. Be that as it may, I have come to the conclusion nothing will change your mind on Covid, so I avoid the argument. This is the Arctic Sea Ice forum after all, though we've come to appreciate it in all science matters.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7478 on: July 10, 2020, 11:55:16 PM »
What Oren said ^^

I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7479 on: July 11, 2020, 12:08:14 AM »
One of the silliest metrics I've seen used regarding CFR is to assume that antibody tests are accurate, and base the numbers on those figures.

In reality, we can only scientifically conclude the CFR based on the number of confirmed versus dead - CFRs are clearly in the 5-10% range.

Critical illness rate of 20% or higher.

I agree, it is definitely tough to make a "reassuring call" based on imprecise antibody tests regarding a pathogen that we have a very low understanding of the human immunological response to. We don't even know how well/long memory B cells can store antigen information for COVID19 and it seems the first-round antibodies don't hang around for more than a few months max. In combination with the uncategoried pneumonia-like surplus deaths, I don't think cherry picking the lowest range of numbers is a scientific approach at all. That being said, highballing it is not likely accurate either, based on what we have seen, but I want to note that the CFR has gone through multiple rises and falls and has not yet dipped below ~5.6% globally, even with the massive recent case surge (which is not unreasonable to assume will soon be followed in an uptick of deaths as it appears a local minimum has already been reached in the rolling average).

Even if the antibody tests are accurate, we are nowhere near herd immunity anywhere, so unfortunately there is still a lot more dying that could potentially happen, especially taking the current state of global health into account. It is dangerous to assume we are out, or on our way out of the woods, when that sort of assumption-making let the virus cross oceans and spiral out of control to begin with. While I absolutely think eternal vigilance regarding authoritarianism and domestic surveillance is critical, I do not think sacrificing good epidemiology (especially purely data driven figures and stats that are first-order/primary observations) for the potential political implications is valid. I believe it is quite possible to be recognize the severity of the pathogen's potential capabilities and respond accordingly without hopping on the fast track to a further-Orwellian future.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7480 on: July 11, 2020, 12:43:08 AM »
I recommend everyone to read sam posts. He made various estimates using different methods because at the time there were no serologies. On top of that Sam mostly used CFRs not IFRs. He was spot on. Just one of his many posts:

Quote
Based on the Cumulative diagnoses change and the daily death rate, and a fatality rate of 10%, this suggests that the daily growth ratio is 1.27. That is still an R of ~4.2

With a 4% death rate, the growth rate implied is still 9% (1.0908), which implies an R of ~1.68.

With a fatality rate of 12%, the growth rate is 31% per day (1.31), which implies an R of ~5.05

If the fraction of people who catch the disease is 85%, this implies R0s for these three cases of ~5, ~2, and ~6 respectively.

This disease spread is not under control.

Sam made insightful guesses.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7481 on: July 11, 2020, 12:52:52 AM »
‘All the Hospitals Are Full’: In Houston, Overwhelmed ICUs Leave COVID-19 Patients Waiting in ERs

https://www.propublica.org/article/all-the-hospitals-are-full-in-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers#977365

Quote
“Normally that patient would just go to an ICU bed, but because there are no beds available, they continue to board in the emergency room,” said Harris Health System president and CEO Esmaeil Porsa, who oversees the city’s two public safety-net hospitals. “It is not an optimal level of care. This is not something we would choose to do. The only reason this is happening is because we are being forced to do it.”

This is when the real IFR's goes up, but also when mortuary services get overwhelmed so the death are not reported.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7482 on: July 11, 2020, 12:57:07 AM »
I'm quite surprised at how emotional people on a supposedly science-based forum can be. Science is about challenging the status quo and coming up with new truths. Neven is challenging the majority opinion on this forum, and being heavily castigated for it.
Neven are you seriously comparing the star of David forced on jews during the holocaust to mask-wearing?
This is the piece you're talking about. Please read it carefully.
Quote
It is irresistible, that attraction, to most of us. The chance to be a part of something like that, and to unleash one’s hatred on those who refuse to go along with the new religion … to publicly ridicule them, to humiliate them, to segregate them from normal society, to hunt them down and get them fired from their jobs, to cheer as police abuse and arrest them, to diagnose them as “abnormal” and “inferior,” these social deviants, these subhuman “others,” who dare to challenge the authority of the Party, or the Church, or the State, or the Reich, or Science.

Plus, in the eyes of GloboCap (and its millions of fanatical, slogan-chanting followers), such non-mask-wearing deviants are dangerous. They are like a disease … an infestation. A sickness in the social body. If they refuse to conform, they will have to be dealt with, quarantined, or something like that.

Or they can just surrender to the Brave New Normal, and stop acting like babies, and wear a goddamn mask.

After all, it’s just a harmless piece of cloth.
The author (not Neven - he's quoting someone else) is comparing the mindset of ordinary Germans at the start of the Nazi regime: "it's just a harmless piece of cloth" with the mindset of people who now DEMAND that everyone should obey those in authority. Even though it's becoming abundantly clear, over most of the planet, that those in authority don't know what they're doing, or if they do they aren't doing it for the good of the people.

I stopped posting because of pure ass stupidity and anti-science lunacy of many of the posts that were being made on this forum. I had enormous respect for yοu personally and all of the work you have done in creating and supporting the importance of  arctic ice awareness and dangers of climate change.

But your posts on this topic make clear that you fallen into a deep dark hole of misinformation, denial and bullshit.

I’m done. You are a loon.
Sam, the vast majority of people on this forum agree wholeheartedly with you. Why run away because one or two people challenge the majority? Doesn't science permit, even encourage, such debate? Your posts on medical matters are very enlightening, but I think you'd gain even more respect if you dialled down the emotion.

This is some of what Neven is saying:
The virus is real, the reaction to it is a hype.

Instead of reflecting on how it has come to this and what structural changes are needed to prevent threats to societal stability, all the attention is funneled towards death-fear-vaccines-death-fear-vaccines-death-fear-vaccines. Pandemic porn, nothing more, nothing less.

... the idiots who call for lockdowns and other 1984-esque measures that will either push societies to collapse or totalitarianism

... it has now become clear that in a reasonably healthy population the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.2% at most.

... people are so deeply invested in this narrative that it is impossible to get out of. The media is a sensationalist propaganda machine...

... while much more serious things are going in the world that get almost zero attention (take a look for instance at the melting season thead, or think about the cancer epidemic, or the spread of microplastics, or deforestation, or top soil erosion, and so on).

Or, to quote my favourite author on the subject:
Quote
... “Science” as a kind of deity whose Name is invoked to silence heretics, or to ease the discomfort of the cognitive dissonance that results from desperately trying to believe the absurdities of the official narrative.

... the “deadly virus” could be any virus, any pathogen whatsoever. All they have to do from now on is “discover” some “novel” micro-organism that is highly contagious (or that mimics some other micro-organism that we already have), and wave it in front of people’s faces. Then they can crank up the Fear Machine, and start projecting hundreds of millions of deaths if everyone doesn’t do exactly as they’re told. They can run this schtick … well, pretty much forever, anytime the working classes get restless, or an unauthorized president gets elected, or just for the sheer sadistic fun of it.

... This is the mentality of the Brave New Normal … irrationally paranoid and authoritarian. So, no, the future isn’t looking very bright for anyone not prepared to behave as if the world were one big infectious disease ward.

... It’s like talking to a single algorithm that is running in millions of people’s brains.

... it is exhilarating, and liberating, being part of the mob, surrendering the burden of personal autonomy and individual responsibility, fusing with a fanatical “movement” that is ushering in a new “reality” backed by the sheer brute force of the state … or the transnational global capitalist empire.
A lot of people here don't agree with what he's saying, but calling him a "loon" is unacceptable. Saying "your posts on this topic make clear that you (have) fallen into a deep dark hole of misinformation, denial and bullshit" is overemotional and not reflective of what he has ACTUALLY POSTED.

On most of this forum, the cry goes up that there are too many people on the planet, and not enough smart people. Well, COVID-19 isn't really helping here. Neven's right that probably less than two people in a thousand are going to die. Considerably less than the world population increase.

Current figures show that the worst affected major country (Belgium) shows 0.8 in a thousand. Next comes the UK, at just  under 0.7 in a thousand. Both curves look to be flattening off, and it would take quite an uptick to get even to the two in a thousand that Neven is suggesting. Sweden is rising at 0.5, again flattening off. The USA is still climbing, but at 0.38 it has a way to go. Chile (.35), Brazil (.32), Ecuador (.29), Mexico (.265), are climbing fast, but again have a long way to go before the virus shows the sort of lethality that scared everybody four months ago.

As for "smart people", the smarter you are, the more you're likely to act to protect yourselves and those around you. The dumbest ones are much more likely to kill themselves. It won't help (more than the tiniest fraction) to raise global IQ, but it might make people more likely to choose smarter leaders. Here's hoping, anyway.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7483 on: July 11, 2020, 01:17:38 AM »
I'm quite surprised at how emotional people on a supposedly science-based forum can be. Science is about challenging the status quo and coming up with new truths. Neven is challenging the majority opinion on this forum, and being heavily castigated for it.

Neven is free to present evidence. He hasn't presented any evidence of his claims and there has been plenty of evidence presented that contradicts Neven.

he is being castigated because he is ignoring the evidence presented and then speaking over us while misleading. As a mod, and owner of the forum, he is in a  position of power in this forum. He is abusing it.

Quote
Neven are you seriously comparing the star of David forced on jews during the holocaust to mask-wearing?
This is the piece you're talking about. Please read it carefully.

You went there.

 EVERYONE must wear masks. No one is being singled out. Can you even begin to spot the difference between forcing a group to wear a mark and forcing everyone to wear safety measures?

Quote
On most of this forum, the cry goes up that there are too many people on the planet, and not enough smart people. Well, COVID-19 isn't really helping here. Neven's right that probably less than two people in a thousand are going to die. Considerably less than the world population increase.

Neven is mathematically and scientifically wrong about that 2 in a thousand. For most of the world is 1 in 200 to 1 in 100, if order remains, 1 in 20 without world hospital service.

Obviously, as treatments are developed the fatality rate will improve and the eventual IFR might be as low as Neven wishes.

That is his bet, Elon musk bet and Trump's bet. If we get lucky with treatments, they will eventually be right at the IFR, even if they are wrong and costing lives today.
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greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7484 on: July 11, 2020, 01:53:19 AM »
Neven is mathematically and scientifically wrong about that 2 in a thousand. For most of the world is 1 in 200 to 1 in 100, if order remains, 1 in 20 without world hospital service.

Obviously, as treatments are developed the fatality rate will improve and the eventual IFR might be as low as Neven wishes.

That is his bet, Elon musk bet and Trump's bet. If we get lucky with treatments, they will eventually be right at the IFR, even if they are wrong and costing lives today.
This is where I got the figures from:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=chl&areas=swe&areas=mex&areas=ecu&areasRegional=usok&areasRegional=usla&areasRegional=usal&areasRegional=ussc&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=1&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths
And here's the graph:

You're expecting ALL those lines to suddenly shoot upward? I can't see it myself. And if not, NONE of them are going to reach even 1%. They're mostly flattening off at less than a tenth of that.
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I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7485 on: July 11, 2020, 01:55:15 AM »
I'm quite surprised at how emotional people on a supposedly science-based forum can be. Science is about challenging the status quo and coming up with new truths. Neven is challenging the majority opinion on this forum, and being heavily castigated for it.

Would you give that same praise and benefit of the doubt to someone coming onto this science based Arctic Ice forum denying the existence and progress of AGW? How about claiming there is a little warming, but it's nothing more than Milankovicth Cycles and the rave around CO2 is just a bunch of emotional hype? I think we both know the answer to this question, and that same level of scrutiny should be applied across the board.

I've lurked here since late 2012 and finally got around to making an account this year to interact with this community because I value it as one of the few remaining places where discussions are primarily data and science driven. Plenty of other once-favorite forums and sites have either shut down or decayed to the point of uselessness. I respect all of the work Neven has put into developing this community for that exact reason. The ASIF has been enduring. It is precisely the same reason I am so appalled, and as you may say, "emotional", because the degredation of science reporting and scientific discussion absolutely kills me, and exceptionally so when I see it occurring from the founder of one of the few valuable havens I still frequent.

As Archimid said, claims which challenge the wealth of data out there regarding COVID19 to such a degree as his claims do requires plenty of evidence, and none is presented. I would go as far as to say it is Neven who was originally making the emotionally driven claims out of fear of a Big Brother crackdown, and the forum's responses are well justified. Ultimately though, one person's voice, whether it is yours, Sam's, his, or mine, is never the end all be all to any discussion, but letting such evidence-lacking claims as the ones producing this uproar go uncontested is contrary the ideological scientific foundation of this community.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7486 on: July 11, 2020, 01:58:18 AM »
You're expecting ALL those lines to suddenly shoot upward? I can't see it myself. And if not, NONE of them are going to reach even 1%. They're mostly flattening off at less than a tenth of that.

A disease that kills 50% of the people it infects that only spreads through a fraction of a percent of the population will never reach 1% either, but that doesn't make it "just a flu" in lethality either. I certainly hope we won't see enough of a percentage of the population of any country contract COVID19 that a 1% death rate will be realized.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7487 on: July 11, 2020, 02:14:47 AM »
As Archimid said, claims which challenge the wealth of data out there regarding COVID19 to such a degree as his claims do requires plenty of evidence, and none is presented. I would go as far as to say it is Neven who was originally making the emotionally driven claims out of fear of a Big Brother crackdown, and the forum's responses are well justified. Ultimately though, one person's voice, whether it is yours, Sam's, his, or mine, is never the end all be all to any discussion, but letting such evidence-lacking claims as the ones producing this uproar go uncontested is contrary the ideological scientific foundation of this community.
I've shown some evidence - graphs showing that the death rate is tending at the moment to less than 0.08 percent. Some of it will be the result of under-reporting, but I doubt if it's going to change the trend much. Neven isn't claiming that the virus isn't real, he's commenting on the panic that has been aroused. Yes, it's killing people. But not that many, and even fewer of the ones that society relies on: the young and the well. He asserts that it's in certain people's interests to create and maintain hysteria.

I'm keeping an open mind, but I can see some fairly persuasive evidence of it. To take one instance: for the first couple of months, the reporting was all about the number of deaths. But the figures have stopped playing ball; now, suddenly, it's the number of infections that are getting the headlines.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7488 on: July 11, 2020, 02:23:33 AM »
Without safety measure I absolutely expect the numbers to shoot up. In winter numbers will shoot up even with safety measures. Only places that follow sanitary measures and can provide healthcare to their people will the numbers stay close to the 0.2%

Basically you listen to Neven, IFR becomes greater than 1% Neven becomes wrong. You don’t  listen Neven and listen to common sense (take precautions) IFR keeps decaying until Neven is right.
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7489 on: July 11, 2020, 02:24:11 AM »
I just spent an hour reviewing Sams post.

What a great loss for ASIF.

Sam's estimates of the CFR were spot on. Remember, CFR is not IFR.

The IFR matters to politicians and epidemiologists and it is somewhere between 0.5%-1% and dropping.

The CFR is still 4.46%, hovering well inside the range given by Sam since February.

That's interesting, I just went through the first 11 pages of this thread as well. Sam:

Quote
Take the 8,650 count of confirmed infected persons today and move it back in time 6 days by dividing by 1.42^6 = 1,055 people in the cohort those who died came from. Now divide 170 by 1,055. The result = 16.1% of the cohort dying. Take that with a huge grain of salt. We know from SARS that it's death rate averaged about 10%. MERS averaged about 40%. So 16% is not unreasonable. But this is a really tentative calculation based on lots of assumptions using exponential growth data. It would likely be safe to assume that the actual death rate is somewhere in the range of 10-20% based on these parameters.

Quote
The latest paper suggests that the appropriate delay (admission to death) is a little over 5 days indicating a ~12% case fatality rate.


If memory serves, you voted for less than 10,000 deaths from Covid......

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7490 on: July 11, 2020, 02:28:28 AM »
Deaths Tick Up In Florida, Texas, California, Arizona
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-deaths-tick-up-in-florida-texas-california-arizona.html





-----------------------------------

More from:  https://www.propublica.org/article/all-the-hospitals-are-full-in-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-covid-19-patients-waiting-in-ers#977365

... When hospitals get overloaded, they ask regional authorities to divert ambulances elsewhere. For example, Memorial Hermann’s northeast hospital was on diversion status just 2% of the time during an eight-day period in late June and early July last year; it was on diversion status 58% of the time during the same time period this year. At Houston’s busiest public hospital, Ben Taub, the number jumped to 81% from 58%.

The problem, said Houston Fire Department Assistant Chief Matt White, is that when every hospital is maxed out, ambulance crews have no choice but to take patients to emergency departments that are too busy to quickly receive them. And by law, hospitals must screen and stabilize any patient who arrives.

“When everyone is on diversion,” White said, “nobody is on diversion.”  ...

... Members of the Congress from the state have requested the US government for a field hospital in the Rio Grande valley. "There is no indication that case counts will level out soon," they warned in a letter.

---------------------------------------

Fauci Says He Hasn’t Briefed Trump In Two Months as Covid-19 Cases Rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/coronavirus-trumps-rift-with-white-house-health-advisor-fauci-widens-as-cases-hit-new-records.html

... “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say we have a serious ongoing problem, right now, as we speak,” Fauci said. “What worries me is the slope of the curve. It still looks like it’s exponential.”

---------------------------------------



--------------------------------------

... Thursday brought 63,247 new Covid-19 cases nationwide, a single-day record, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The new high comes as many states set records in infection rates and hospitalizations.

While 29 states saw an increase in new cases compared to last week, Miami-Dade County in Florida on Friday reported a staggering 28% positivity rate, or the percentage of people tested who test positive for the coronavirus.

Mayor Carlos Gimenez's office said the goal is to not exceed a positivity rate of 10%, but the county has exceeded the 18% mark for the past 14 days. On Thursday, it was 33.5%.

Over the past 13 days, hospitalizations in Miami-Dade County have gone up by 74%, the number of beds in intensive care units being used has increased by 88% and the use of ventilators has soared by 123%, according to the latest data from the county government.

Florida health officials on Friday reported 11,433 new Covid-19 cases and 93 deaths, according to data on the Florida Department of Health website.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/10/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 03:34:46 AM by vox_mundi »
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7491 on: July 11, 2020, 02:34:56 AM »
It has now become clear that in a reasonably healthy population the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.2% at most. If it is higher than that it is because of demographics, environmental conditions and general population health (which is very low in most parts of the world), and these factors are heavily influenced by the global neoliberal system of endless growth.
New York City had zip codes with mortality over 0.5 % of the population. Maybe the population was older than average but so am I.

I am not convinced that masks are useful. I am deferring to the judgement of epidemiologists in Scandinavia, the Netherlands, etc. It is not something where "common sense" decides the issue. Nor does a comparison with a star.
Probably there are 90% of situations where it is not, but I support what now are minimal effort measures in public places, as wearing a mask or keeping a meter extra, as they plausibly help reduce the R0.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7492 on: July 11, 2020, 02:55:38 AM »
If memory serves, you voted for less than 10,000 deaths from Covid......

Let me quote myself back in March
So be it. I picked less than 10,000. I hope this thing can be slowdown until effective treatments are developed. A look at the tables this morning makes me a bit less confident about my pick,  seeing the US approach to this disease even more so.

The US approach was sabotaged by Trump and his accomplices.

The CDC of old would have stopped this in its tracks.

Today the answer to the virus is exactly the same as it was then. Had we executed then , this would be over by now. But no. We Are still waiting on the US to grow a pair and face this disease.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 03:02:41 AM by Archimid »
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7493 on: July 11, 2020, 03:19:18 AM »
If memory serves, you voted for less than 10,000 deaths from Covid......

Let me quote myself back in March
So be it. I picked less than 10,000. I hope this thing can be slowdown until effective treatments are developed. A look at the tables this morning makes me a bit less confident about my pick,  seeing the US approach to this disease even more so.

The US approach was sabotaged by Trump and his accomplices.

The CDC of old would have stopped this in its tracks.

Today the answer to the virus is exactly the same as it was then. Had we executed then , this would be over by now. But no. We Are still waiting on the US to grow a pair and face this disease.
I sympathize with Neven even though we disagree on some points. And it is because of posts like this.

In wealthy and healthy communities, IFRs seem to range from literally 0 to .2% max. In normal communities, a .2-.3% IFR may be commonplace. The worst-hit areas will range from .5% IFRs on up, we do not know where the max is yet. I think my only difference from Neven's position is that I believe the hysteria is actually warranted for specific segments of the population even if it is counterproductive and ridiculous for society as a whole.

How would the CDC of old have stopped this?

The only country that has stopped this is Taiwan. Everywhere else it is turning out quarantines etc are not working. NZ's quarantine is apparently failing, Victoria in Australia has failed completely.

So, how exactly would the old CDC have stopped this?

There is no way that would have happened. I would also argue that a major summer wave is a BEST CASE scenario if a vaccine is not developed. All the Europeans gloating about the flight restrictions now -- lol. OK. Come winter the higher proportion of population unexposed to wave 1 in Europe means their overall mortality could be a fair deal higher than the US and Sweden in the end.

The posts from January or whenever indicating a CFR of 10-20% are insane hyperbole.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7494 on: July 11, 2020, 04:08:18 AM »
The NY Times has updated their excess death counter again after a few weeks!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html?

IFRs

Mexico City: 22.7K dead / .26% IFR
Ecuador: 22K dead / .13% IFR
Peru: 37K dead / .12% IFR

I think if COVID mimics Spanish Flu, there is a good chance that major cities that are not NYC or CDMX or Milan or Wuhan end up with IFRs of .5%+ this winter. Interestingly, I should also note the situation in CDMX has been almost invisible on the media, almost as if 23K deaths in a major city is now just the new normal (actually.... it literally is the new normal..... which is really f*cked up). For reference, the WWII Blitz killed almost 30K in London.

I have a sinking feeling this is going to result in IFRs of 1-2% or higher in many rural areas of both the US and Europe. The spread in Mississippi and Georgia indicates this is very much a possibility. IFRs are inching upwards in rural areas in both states with the peak GA rates now approaching .40% and the peak MS county now over .25%.

Hancock County, GA: 36 deaths / pop 8,996, IFR of .40%
Neshoba County, MS: 76 deaths / pop 29,676 IFR of .26%

I think it may actually be helpful if we create a running tally with data updated for the various worst-hit locations.

Something like

Hancock County, GA: 36 dead / .40% IFR
NYC: 27K dead / .32% IFR
Mexico City: 22.7K dead / .26% IFR
Neshoba County, MS: 76 dead / .26% IFR
Navajo Nation: 378 dead/ .22% IFR
Lombardy: XX dead / ?? IFR?
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 04:20:28 AM by bbr2315 »

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7495 on: July 11, 2020, 06:22:39 AM »
Finnish current tally is 329 deaths / 7279 confirmed infections. That would be 4,52% . While it is likely true some infections went past the radar of social control and testing, the claims of 10 times the amount of asymptomatic carriers, being true, would have quickly moved this disease out of the realm of contact tracing.

Now that the first wave is pretty much over in Finland, people have relaxed a bit but the grocery stores have set out hand cleaning stations and are keeping the social distancing marks on the cashiers so just a visit to the grocery reminds of the inevitable next wave. The lockdowns cannot go on indefinitely.

(Pretty much over... Just in the news that a Middle Finland Daycare center (70 kids and staff) went into quarantine due exposure.)
« Last Edit: July 11, 2020, 07:04:02 AM by Pmt111500 »

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7496 on: July 11, 2020, 09:10:21 AM »
Two things:

Sam is wrong. Neven is wrong. One claims too high a death rate, the other: too low.

The only available method to calculate true mortality (IFR) is to divide excess dead by serology results (antibody positives in the population). That number is almost everywhere between 0,5-1,5%. This is pretty much settled and final.

The only way to argue for lower mortality is presuming that lots of people do NOT produce antibodies and yet are protected from the virus. This is a possibility and there is some evidence for this in very young and very healthy individuals but the number seems to low to meaningfully change the above results.

Arguing for a higher mortality is a mathematical impossibility. (meaning tha if everyone has been infected and 1% of the population died, how could you have 4-5-10% mortality?)

The IFR is 0,5-1,5% or lower (if many have protection without antibodies - currently that is a big IF). IFR won't be higher unless there is a deadly mutation. 

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7497 on: July 11, 2020, 09:15:34 AM »
BBR mentioned Victoria, Australia has lost control.

I live in Melbourne..... the situation isn't out of control, there has been an outbreak, something that was entirely predictable and can happen anywhere at any time. This virus is highly contagious, it is to be expected.

The VIC outbreak happened for a few reasons.

One man who was on security in the hotels where people are being isolated thought it was a good idea to have sex with a quarantined person and, after work, he did uber driving for a couple of hours a night.
This went on for over a week until he displayed symptoms.
By then, the virus was out and running rampant.... and 250 plus cases today is testimony to that.

The response has been orderly, they tried locking down suburbs but that failed so now the entire State is in lockdown, as it should be. This will last for 5 more weeks when we will try again for a semi open situation.

For the places with low death rates, it is more to do with good treatments and hospitals that are not inundated with excess sick people.
This has been demonstrated repeatedly all over the world.

When it looks like the response is over the top, it means it is working because to ignore it is to increase the number of people who will die.

As for projections, given nobody knew what the virus was capable of several months ago, and erring on the side of caution (which, honestly, hasn't really happened) would have been better than waiting several months like the USA to find out just how bad it will get before taking action.

In the first several months the guess work based on flawed information ranged widely but, regardless of that, nobody knew the exact nature of this virus. And we really don't know even now.

Sam did his level best to give estimates based on the best information he could find, he wasn't all wrong or right, but he gave his reasoning based on his best educated guess.
Others said it would amount to less than 10K deaths... those same people put cavets on their estimates.... which is good as well.

But to say this virus is just a flu, seriously, I have never seen a flu kill this many people this quickly and the last time was early last century... so is rare.

Covid is dangerous, I am moderately surprised that people are still saying it isn't all that bad... look at Italy, NY, Spain and other places who lost control of it entirely and tell me how that isn't dangerous.
Grab the numbers from the places that lost control and extrapolate it globally and look at the deaths. I did this exact exercise months ago using age based figures and global numbers and the number was horrible.... not quite 100 million from memory.

How the hell is that not dangerous?

The response?
Maybe it is over the top, maybe not, but nobody can be 100% sure and if the global economy goes into a depression because of it, then that isn't exactly a bad thing.... maybe it will wake people up to the rich and powerful and their raping of those without and something happens to change how we do things later.... but people being people wont do shit until it personally affects them... maybe this will be the trigger for radical change.

How Sam was treated was wrong, if people disagree, front up with the numbers and go from there then wait a few months to see what happens in the real world and adapt your estimates accordingly. If someone is wrong, so what? That is how we learn and get better at things.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7498 on: July 11, 2020, 09:20:09 AM »
In wealthy and healthy communities, IFRs seem to range from literally 0 to .2% max.

Let me quote Neven:

Quote
but it has now become clear that in a reasonably healthy population the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.2%, at most

My bold. Not even the data you posted to supports the bolded part

0.2% is about the minimum IFR in places that were not overwhelmed and enjoy great healthcare services. 0.2% is a lower bound not an upper bound as you imply but then disprove and Neven claims without proof.

BTW What is the source of your data? How are you calculating those IFR's.

Quote
In normal communities, a .2-.3% IFR may be commonplace. The worst-hit areas will range from .5% IFRs on up, we do not know where the max is yet. I think my only difference from Neven's position is that I believe the hysteria is actually warranted for specific segments of the population even if it is counterproductive and ridiculous for society as a whole.

I ask you the same question I asked Neven and he avoided. What do you propose we do?

Quote
How would the CDC of old have stopped this?

The same way they did it with SARS1 and Ebola.

Quote
The only country that has stopped this is Taiwan. Everywhere else it is turning out quarantines etc are not working. NZ's quarantine is apparently failing, Victoria in Australia has failed completely.

BS. In many countries and even some states in the US, the number of cases were brought down to very low levels, and then sanitary measures and summer are keeping the numbers down.  Except for the sanitary measures, life resumes close to normal. The occasional local breakout with a local shutdown is fully expected and relatively easy to manage, once taken seriously.

Is the fight over in these countries? Of course not, they will be fighting SARS2 for years. But the citizens of countries with very low prevalence can do plenty of activities in relative safety, unlike citizens in countries that listened to Neven. Countries that did the opposite that neven asks, including his own now enjoy almost COVID19 free life.In the places that decided to "die for the economy",  people are dying.


Quote
There is no way that would have happened. I would also argue that a major summer wave is a BEST CASE scenario if a vaccine is not developed. All the Europeans gloating about the flight restrictions now -- lol. OK. Come winter the higher proportion of population unexposed to wave 1 in Europe means their overall mortality could be a fair deal higher than the US and Sweden in the end.


1. the IFR will keep decreasing from here to December
2. In places with 0 cases, winter will not matter as long as the borders are tight and the authorities alert.
3. In places with high levels of infection Winter will be a disaster.
4. Immunity. We still don't know how long it lasts.  For all, we know herd immunity is only wishful thinking. the price for being wrong about that is unbearable.
The posts from January or whenever indicating a CFR of 10-20% are insane hyperbole.
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bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #7499 on: July 11, 2020, 09:33:16 AM »
In wealthy and healthy communities, IFRs seem to range from literally 0 to .2% max.

Let me quote Neven:

Quote
but it has now become clear that in a reasonably healthy population the IFR for SARS-CoV-2 is 0.2%, at most

My bold. Not even the data you posted to supports the bolded part

0.2% is about the minimum IFR in places that were not overwhelmed and enjoy great healthcare services. 0.2% is a lower bound not an upper bound as you imply but then disprove and Neven claims without proof.

BTW What is the source of your data? How are you calculating those IFR's.

Quote
In normal communities, a .2-.3% IFR may be commonplace. The worst-hit areas will range from .5% IFRs on up, we do not know where the max is yet. I think my only difference from Neven's position is that I believe the hysteria is actually warranted for specific segments of the population even if it is counterproductive and ridiculous for society as a whole.

I ask you the same question I asked Neven and he avoided. What do you propose we do?

Quote
How would the CDC of old have stopped this?

The same way they did it with SARS1 and Ebola.

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The only country that has stopped this is Taiwan. Everywhere else it is turning out quarantines etc are not working. NZ's quarantine is apparently failing, Victoria in Australia has failed completely.

BS. In many countries and even some states in the US, the number of cases were brought down to very low levels, and then sanitary measures and summer are keeping the numbers down.  Except for the sanitary measures, life resumes close to normal. The occasional local breakout with a local shutdown is fully expected and relatively easy to manage, once taken seriously.

Is the fight over in these countries? Of course not, they will be fighting SARS2 for years. But the citizens of countries with very low prevalence can do plenty of activities in relative safety, unlike citizens in countries that listened to Neven. Countries that did the opposite that neven asks, including his own now enjoy almost COVID19 free life.In the places that decided to "die for the economy",  people are dying.


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There is no way that would have happened. I would also argue that a major summer wave is a BEST CASE scenario if a vaccine is not developed. All the Europeans gloating about the flight restrictions now -- lol. OK. Come winter the higher proportion of population unexposed to wave 1 in Europe means their overall mortality could be a fair deal higher than the US and Sweden in the end.


1. the IFR will keep decreasing from here to December
2. In places with 0 cases, winter will not matter as long as the borders are tight and the authorities alert.
3. In places with high levels of infection Winter will be a disaster.
4. Immunity. We still don't know how long it lasts.  For all, we know herd immunity is only wishful thinking. the price for being wrong about that is unbearable.
The posts from January or whenever indicating a CFR of 10-20% are insane hyperbole.
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This post is just a bunch of words. You start by questioning my data sources when I have been repetitive and extremely open in posting the numbers and the sources. So the rest is basically just an ad hominem attack. The NYC zipcode level data confirms some zips saw 0 deaths (mine saw 1 death and was adjacent to the two that saw 0).

PS, Rodius: Melbourne is now recording more daily positives than NYC. Also, Archimid, the only US states with the virus under control saw substantial springtime waves and / or do not have major AC usage.