When will post-pandemic normalcy return?

[Tom_Mazanec]

Normalcy is defined as:
Socially acceptable to shake hands
Mask wearing no longer required
Economy recovered from covid recession
Sports, graduations, etc. held as normal with normal audiences
Stores, restaurants, etc. no longer having occupancy limits
International tourism resumes normally

[Tom_Mazanec]

Disclosure: I voted for late 2021.
I am torn between the optimism of fast vaccine development and the pessimism of everybody getting so sick of the lockdown that they say "To Hell with it!"
But I would not be surprised if it took longer 

[crandles]

Economy recovered from covid recession

Hmm back to pre covid levels?

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Q3 2020 (2nd)  +33.1%
Q2 2020 (3rd)   -31.4%

Somehow I don't think that means already. 

[El Cid]

30% will be infected by q1 2021, 30% more will be vaccined by q2 2021. That"s herd immunity. It's gonna be all clear by summer

[Tor Bejnar]

This is tough:  I guess I need to go with the latest event

Socially acceptable to shake hands - true today in North Dakota, etc.
Mask wearing no longer required - true today in North Dakota, etc.
Economy recovered from Covid recession - 1,000s of restaurants and other businesses closed - it will take a couple years to approximate recovery.
Sports, graduations, etc. held as normal with normal audiences - mid 2021 in the US, I'd guess.
Stores, restaurants, etc. no longer having occupancy limits - true today in ND, etc.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Economy recovered from covid recession

Hmm back to pre covid levels?

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Q3 2020 (2nd)  +33.1%
Q2 2020 (3rd)   -31.4%

Somehow I don't think that means already. 

Q1 100
Q2 68.6 (100*(100-31.4))
Q3 91.3 (68.6*1.331)
Still 8.7 percent below "baseline", since you changed the baseline from Q1 to Q2.
And I listed four other criteria.

[etienne]

I am not too optimistic for 2021. I am worried that the vaccine might only be good for a few months to a year, so that it might be reserved for strategic people untill it really can be mass produced and distributed. I hope that everything will be ok for the winter end 2022. Otherwise we will have a new normal by that time. A similar economy wouldn't be a good news regarding AGW, there are some aspects like air travel where I hope that we will have a new normality.

[oren]

I've voted for late 2022. The virus will become endemic no matter what, and it takes time to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people in a country like the USA, billions globally. Vaccine denial is widespread, and vaccine effectiveness is not 100%, so it is quite probable prudent people will still be masked one year and more after the vaccine is mass produced and mass distributed.
If anything, I find my estimate to be optimistic.
Any my wife adds: don't forget the possibility for mutations.

[KiwiGriff]

Normal for whom?
Here in NZ it is normal. Catching Covid is not a risk for almost all of us  here .
The only difference from  normal life ?
We don't have tens of thousands of tourists cluttering up the place.
But.
Kiwis usually spend  as much being tourists overseas as tourists bring into our economy so that hardly matters.

Today I even confirmed  my attendance  at the usual yearly social gatherings over Christmas for the extended family's on both sides ... no problems, no issues, no risks.
I will spare a though for all you poor buggers living is less well run country's as I crack a cold one and burn dead animal bits  on the BBQ as we traditionally do for the seasons celebrations in NZ.

[El Cid]

Kiwis usually spend  as much being tourists overseas as tourists bring into our economy so that hardly matters.

I guess that those who used to cater for foreign tourists are now unemployed, so that does matter for the economy. (see pic)
Other than that you are right, our politicians screwed up big time.

[P-maker]

Kiwigriff,

I crack a cold one and burn animal bits

Just to let you know, that we just tried to burn 17 million Corona-hidden minks:

https://m.slashdot.org/story/378774

The result was not in any ways a happy ending...

[kassy]

I suggest dropping the economy part because that takes more time then the important stuff.

There will be a vaccine somewhere early next year hopefully and then we have all summer to roll it out.

And then we will see if it takes us through next winter... so i hope halfway next year.

Aside: i wonder if we (the richer western countries) will also help the poor nations getting everyone vaccinated...

[oren]

Normalcy is defined as:
Socially acceptable to shake hands
Mask wearing no longer required
Economy recovered from covid recession
Sports, graduations, etc. held as normal with normal audiences
Stores, restaurants, etc. no longer having occupancy limits

Add to this, tourists travelling without restrictions.

[WildFit]

Normalcy is defined as:
Socially acceptable to shake hands
Mask wearing no longer required
Economy recovered from covid recession
Sports, graduations, etc. held as normal with normal audiences
Stores, restaurants, etc. no longer having occupancy limits

Economy recovered should be removed because:

Economy could recover in full after many years only while in the mean time life
returned to pre-covid normalcy.

Economic fluctuations are not only due to Covid or Pandemics but prone to
a multitude of other factors that could cause setback, hence once could claim
that the world did not recover from Sars-Cov2 while in fact it did but other
incidences kept the world from recovering economically.

Last but not least the economic / monetary system is flawed and doomed on day one
of any past and future reboot and we are approaching it's demis as we know it today.
In fact the system is bankrupt as we speak but covered with paint like a rusty hull that's
desintegrating underneath.

[gerontocrat]

Normalcy is defined as:
Socially acceptable to shake hands
Mask wearing no longer required
Sports, graduations, etc. held as normal with normal audiences
Stores, restaurants, etc. no longer having occupancy limits

A long time ago I worked in a country where one might think at first glance life was normal. On the surface it was BAU, but we all knew that sooner or later civil society would collapse to be followed by a civil war. One year after I left, it happened. Later I learnt that most of my staff were gunned down as they were fleeing to the airport.

In a good many parts of the world, including parts of the USA, you have to add  into the mix for 2020 on top of Covid a succession of natural disasters that adds to the uncertainty of life.

Things have changed - beneath the superficial BAU activities there may well be that feeling of unsound ground beneath one's feet. So I don't accept Tom's definition of normalcy - sometimes we do the BAU stuff to paper over the cracks.

[crandles]

Economy recovered should be removed because:

Economy could recover in full after many years only while in the mean time life
returned to pre-covid normalcy.

Economic fluctuations are not only due to Covid or Pandemics but prone to
a multitude of other factors that could cause setback, hence once could claim
that the world did not recover from Sars-Cov2 while in fact it did but other
incidences kept the world from recovering economically.

Last but not least the economic / monetary system is flawed and doomed on day one
of any past and future reboot and we are approaching it's demis as we know it today.
In fact the system is bankrupt as we speak but covered with paint like a rusty hull that's
desintegrating underneath.

Agree. Even if gdp comes back quite rapidly, government debt will be at elevated levels probably for at least a decade, which might leave a question mark over whether economy has recovered.

(BTW I think gdp numbers are annualized but yes I was aware it hadn't recovered because of the lower base.)

"tourists travelling without restrictions" seems a useful addition but perhaps without restrictions worse than having a test or vaccine?  Maybe add 'business or' to start of this?

[Tom_Mazanec]

Of course, things will not be the “same” after covid. The Roaring Twenties were not the same as Le Belle Epoch after the War and Flu, even if they were “BAU”. But this too will pass.

[karl dubhe2]

Normalcy is defined as:
Socially acceptable to shake hands
Mask wearing no longer required
Economy recovered from covid recession
Sports, graduations, etc. held as normal with normal audiences
Stores, restaurants, etc. no longer having occupancy limits
International tourism resumes normally

Today is World's AIDS day.   I remember what that means, as I lived thru that plague as a gay man in North America from the 1980s until now.   The idea that the world will return to a 'normal' is as delusional as the idea that we're ever really going to get to a post-HIV world.   Yes, Covid is very different from HIV, but it's not going to be the last kind of virus to cross from the animal world into ours.   Some things will return, for a while, but unless everyone get vaccinated it's not going to last.   The Coronavirus doesn't mutate as much, so a vaccine will work for it.  The next virus?   Who the hell knows.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Add “meetings are in person, not cyberspace” to the list.
Even if BAU never returns that is a part of the “Good Old Days” that should come back.

[Sigmetnow]

In many places in the U.S.:  not for a very, very long time.

I saw a tweet that three former U.S. presidents were willing to be vaccinated publicly, to assure folks of its safety.  About half the replies said those injections would just be plain water!

[Tom_Mazanec]

Welp, voting closed.
Here are the results.