The 2023 melting season

[Jim Hunt]

At the risk of incurring the moderators' wrath, "Snow White" has called the 2023 maximum extent following NSIDC's tumble yesterday. With only mild trepidation!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2023/#Mar-11

More over there, but here are the basics:

[Tom Stedman]

All metrics are down, so given the time of year, I think this is it.
The Barents and Kara sea ice look weak,and the Nares has been leaking away for quite a long time, and I think we're due a wet summer, in Western most Europe, which I guess will bring low pressure systems to the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
A warm summer in Alaska, given those factors, could mean a bad summer for the Ice.. time will soon tell!!

[Renerpho]

Now that we have switched to "melting", I think it's a good time to announce that the latest La Niña, which began in September 2020, has been declared over on 9 March 2023. NOAA DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

[Jim Hunt]

The latest La Niña, which began in September 2020, has been declared over on 9 March 2023.

The BoM will probably follow suit next week. From their February 28th update:

La Niña has weakened and is likely near its end.

Oceanic indicators (such as tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) have returned to ENSO-neutral values. Atmospheric indicators are weakening towards neutral values.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

I do wonder whether the ongoing action in the Nares and Fram Straits will result in any new developments in the region north of Greenland, since we have seen some little liftoffs and slides in the region the megacrack has appeared in the past. There has to be some sort of stretching and thinning going on (though of course it is being replaced as well). If it is being replaced by thinner ice, however, this is where I think there is potential for an interesting front of development, if not retreat one of these years.

In that regard, I am also very curious to see how the Beaufort behaves this summer, as it has remained somewhat robust compared to the Atlantic side more years than not over the last half decade. Maybe there is a change up coming based on the recent crack-ups, maybe not. I’ve never been very sure how the Jan-Mar behavior of the ice correlates to melt out, so maybe this year will give some hints as to the strength of that connection. Makes me wonder if we will see a more unique final ice shape/distribution this September than the last few years. Will be keeping a close eye on things this melt season.

[oren]

I agree, all metrics are down, time for this thread, thanks Jim.

[Freegrass]

365 day HYCOM
Very large GIF!

[Freegrass]

HYCOM comparison GIFS on March 8
2018 to 2023
2023 vs 2022
2023 vs 2021
2023 vs 2020

[uniquorn]

4 new SIMB3 buoys deployed in the Beaufort. Ice+snow thicknesses are 153cm, 80cm, 110cm and 128cm. Not particularly thick.

The two older buoys nearer the CAA have ice only thickness of 182cm and 188cm

The thin snow layer not offering much insulation on 560560 during the recent 'warmer' weather leading up to mar8 at roughly -4.5C. Surface ice warming again after cooling from deployment. Looks like there was thickening today though.

edit: the new buoys data has both ice thickness and snow thickness at deployment. Will update on the melting season buoy thread

[uniquorn]

Polar vortex structure looking a bit shredded after the sudden stratospheric warming.
https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d.

[The Walrus]

At the risk of incurring the moderators' wrath, "Snow White" has called the 2023 maximum extent following NSIDC's tumble yesterday. With only mild trepidation!

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2023/#Mar-11

More over there, but here are the basics:

While I believe that we have reached maxium sea ice for 2023, I feel it is too early to place the nail in the coffin.  The main reason for this caution is that past years have exhibited similar peaks, only to have them superceded a few weeks later.  A few examples from NDIC:

Year:  Date of peak & extent:  Trough & extent:  Maxima & extent:

2018:   March 4,  14.289      March   8, 14.183     March 17,  14.465
2016:   March 2,  14.467      March   7, 14.348     March 23,  14.507
2014:   March 7,  14.759      March 11, 14.655     March 21,  14.964
2013:   March 2,  15.110      March   7, 15.011     March 15,  15.167
2012:   March 6,  15.236      March 14, 15.130     March 20,  15.294
2010:   March 8,  15.180      March 23, 15.099      April    2,  15.283

2023:   March 6:  14.618      March 13, 14.502

During these six years, the average early peak was March 5, the average drop from the peak was 0.102 M sq km.  This year, the peak occurred on March 6, and the drop has been 0.116.  The resulting maximum occurred (on average) 16.5 days after the first peak.  Hence, it may be premature to declare the freezing season over.  While I agree with oren that all mtrics are down - currently.  There is still enough winter left to potentially exceed the previous peak.  I feel a higher maximum is unlikely, but I would not rule it out completely.

[FishOutofWater]

Agreed that it's time to start the melting season thread. More warm air blasting into the Arctic from the Pacific is in the forecasts. The big drop over this week came from a massive southerly fetch into the sea of Okhotsk. The next big southerly blast will be into the Bering sea and through the strait into the Chukchi sea.

I also wouldn't be shocked if a dispersion event caused another uptick in extent enough to cause a higher maximum extent. It's unlikely but not impossible.

Oceanic conditions are primed for summer melting and very low metrics in late summer but there's always the weather which we can't forecast well months ahead of time.

[uniquorn]

okhotsk, mar11-14, sic-leads v110

[Jim Hunt]

I feel it is too early to place the nail in the coffin.

Meanwhile JAXA extent is now down to second lowest for the date in the satellite era:

[Jim Hunt]

The BoM will probably follow suit next week.

They have:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

La Niña has ended; El Niño WATCH issued

While the Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO-neutral, the criteria for El Niño WATCH have now been met, indicating around a 50% chance that an El Niño may develop later in 2023.

A significant amount of warmer than average water exists in the western and central tropical Pacific sub-surface, and warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SST) have emerged in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific in recent weeks.

[oren]

While NSIDC suffers from low resolution, JAXA shows an extent drop of over 300k from maximum, I can't see a scenario where it passes the previous peak at this late date.
Regardless, the season switch decision has been made, and that's that.

[FishOutofWater]

Here's the clincher, Oren. Temperatures will be way above normal from the ESS to the Canada basin.

Click to animate - EPS 5-day ensemble mean temperature forecasts for the next 15 days.

[Killian]

I remind you all of my El Nino hypothesis @ 2015 and the Pacific "Heat Bomb" paper of 2021 from Scripps confirming a process of Pacific heat transport to the Arctic with important ice melt effects. But hold onto your hats because whatever happens this summer, next summer has a high likelihood of exceeding it.

[HapHazard]

Here's the clincher, Oren. Temperatures will be way above normal from the ESS to the Canada basin.

Click to animate - EPS 5-day ensemble mean temperature forecasts for the next 15 days.

Just to add to that (will this ramp up Fram export, I wonder?):

[nadir]

Here's the clincher, Oren. Temperatures will be way above normal from the ESS to the Canada basin.

Click to animate - EPS 5-day ensemble mean temperature forecasts for the next 15 days.

The second half of the run sees strong sustained southerly winds over the Beaufort sea.

[Paul]

Here's the clincher, Oren. Temperatures will be way above normal from the ESS to the Canada basin.

Click to animate - EPS 5-day ensemble mean temperature forecasts for the next 15 days.

Yep temperatures are looking quite high once this low intensifies and dominate the whole basin almost. Only exception will be the Laptev mainly although some colder temperatures may return to the ESS eventually.

Will be interesting how this melt season develops because despite there being some quite notable cold(for more modern times) at times, the ice numbers and especially volume numbers don't necessarily reflect that it would seem.

Will be interesting too see if we see the dispersion develop in that area where it was quite severe last year, maybe we got some 2nd year ice this time round but will be one to watch.

Overall I don't feel like we should be seeing anything different to what we seen in the last 10 to 15 years but a warm summer will no doubt push to near if not below 4 million square miles and for me that would be significant as that would be 3 out of the last 5 years that would be below that figures which re enforces the downward trend of less sea ice. Record low will be difficult because I still believe the GAC caused upwelling which melted more ice after the cyclone than it would of if the cyclone did not happen(although I think we would of hit record lows but just not that low).

Would not rule out a record low at some point in the melt season though, didn't see one at all last year but previous years have seen record lows at some point which again is significant for me if it happens again this year.

[gerontocrat]

While over all the Arctic sea ice is in decline, sea ice extent and area in the High Arctic is not. It is likely that as usual that the maximum in the High Arctic will be reached in early April.

The climate analyser (GFS data) average wind image for the next 5 days suggests that Fram Export will slow greatly, while temperatures North of 80 are very cold, while the high +ve temperature anomalies over the ESS, Chukchi and northern part of the Beaufort may not be enough for melt.

The High Arctic projections plume from the last 10 years daily change also suggests a rise in sea ice area until early April.

Attached are images - click to enlarge

Also see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.msg362083.html#msg362083 for the current state of play

[gerontocrat]

ps: Volume from PIOMAS data
Total Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in mid-April,

Peripheral Seas Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in late March,

High Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in early May.

So in several ways the freezing season is not over.

click images to enlarge

[FishOutofWater]

Agreed, Gerontocrat, that the central Arctic is still very cold and freezing continues to build up thickness there. However, given that the Coriolis effect causes ice and water movement to be to the right of the wind field, the winds in that 5 day forecast look favorable for ice export through the Fram strait, to me.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/models/?model=ecm&base=10mwind&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=arctic&archive=false&run=2023031600

Let me add that I expect to see extent drops in the Bering sea and perhaps the Chukchi sea based on the model forecasts. It's way too early to expect extent drops in the Arctic ocean.

The pressure dipole is causing winds that are favorable for exporting the older thicker Arctic sea ice that formed in the winters before this one. That means that central Arctic volume growth caused by freezing into mid April will be offset by the volume loss by export of old ice through the Fram strait.

All in all this weather pattern is unfavorable for ice.

[Jim Hunt]

The NSIDC have (rather belatedly!) now called the 2023 maximum extent too:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/the-2023-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-16

The date of the maximum this year, March 6, was six days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 average date of March 12…

The ice growth season ended with below average sea ice extent in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Barents Sea, and Labrador Sea. Above average extent was in the Greenland Sea. Extent was well below average in the Gulf of St. Lawrence for a second year in row.

[jdallen]

ps: Volume from PIOMAS data
Total Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in mid-April,

Peripheral Seas Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in late March,

High Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in early May.

So in several ways the freezing season is not over.

I'm very keen to see what the PIOMAS end-of-month volume numbers look like.

(Edit)
PIOMAS volume for day 59 was 20,575km3.  At this point, the increase to Max is typically ~1000km3.  We are potentially on track to meet or beat the previous volume  "minmax" of 2017, which was just over 21,000km3.

A high swing of the melt season to what we saw in 2010, 2012 or 2020 won't take us into sub 1,000,000km2 SIA, but has the potential to crush 2012's other records.

Let us hope the ice makers are working overtime.

[oren]

Gero's chart shows thr average gain from end-Feb to the mid-Apr max in total PIOMAS volume is slightly more than 2000 km3.
I think ~1000 is wrong.

[Freegrass]

ps: Volume from PIOMAS data
Total Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in mid-April,

Peripheral Seas Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in late March,

High Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in early May.

So in several ways the freezing season is not over.

click images to enlarge

I'm very surprised that it takes another month or so for the volume to go down in the peripheral seas. This is a clear indicator IMHO that extent isn't the whole story. Or should I say the real story? Extent is just an indicator of the amount of open water that can soak up the energy from the sun, but doesn't really tell us more than that. (edited)

These volume charts also tell us that the real melting season only lasts for about 4,5 months in the high Arctic, while freezing goes on for almost 2/3 of the year. Hence my point that the melting season just isn't long enough to melt the entire ice cube yet.

Hope we can see more of these volume charts during the coming seasons. They're so interesting...

[jdallen]

Gero's chart shows thr average gain from end-Feb to the mid-Apr max in total PIOMAS volume is slightly more than 2000 km3.
I think ~1000 is wrong.

Noted, I'll watch the numbers.  I've asked a contact I have made with the PIOMAS team to get access to daily numbers.  I'll let you know how things play out.

[oren]

Thanks, that would be great.

[Jim Hunt]

I've asked a contact I have made with the PIOMAS team to get access to daily numbers.

We already get that data every 2 weeks, most of the time at least. Or do you mean in near real time?

[Jim Hunt]

At this time of year we do of course still have CryoSat-2 and SMOS thickness (and hence volume) data:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2023/#Mar-17

On the thickness map note the thicker ice heading for oblivion via the Fram Strait.

[uniquorn]

Was just looking at Steven's cs2smos volume charts. Comments have already been made about possible low thickness in Beaufort and ESS. Looking at the uni Colorado ice age map, the high Fram export looks to have dispersed older ice north of the Wandel Sea. There may also be a possibility of a repeat of the 2020 low concentration ice north of Greenland later in the season.

Accelerated sea ice loss in the Wandel Sea points to a change in the Arctic’s Last Ice Area
Axel J. Schweiger, Michael Steele, Jinlun Zhang, G. W. K. Moore & Kristin L. Laidre
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00197-5

sea ice age sep23-mar4

[Freegrass]

Was just looking at Steven's cs2smos volume charts. Comments have already been made about possible low thickness in Beaufort and ESS.

Weird that Cryosat is showing very low volume in the ESS, while HYCOM is showing high volume. I usually rely on HYCOM, which tells me it'll take some time again this season before we see open water in the ESS. Cryosat tells us otherwise. So I think we'll have a good opportunity this season to compare the two.

[oren]

sea ice age sep23-mar4

Wow, Fram plus the constantly open Nares had a major effect on the old ice.
I do wonder about the Beaufort, where CS-SMOS is not showing this old ice arm shown in the sea ice age product. In the last few seasons the Beaufort ice held on remarkably well, so whether or not this arm actually exists can have a serious impact on the melting season.

[kassy]

SMOS shows thickness which does not correlate with ice age as it used too so it´s less thick then ice that old used to be?.

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). This time with a new format and a newer version of the SIC-LEADS algorithm. More information available in the AWI thread.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

Adding a chart of total AMSR2 area according to AWI (current year in white), source https://sites.google.com/view/sea-ice/startseite
And of the Barents area, the usual winter wildcard.

And DMI temps N of 80, for what it's worth.

[pearscot]

Wow, el nino is coming in strong and has really begun to take over. I know there is always a lag effect, but the melting season is just getting started. I still don't know what to expect, but I do think there is potential for this season to be a unique one. I'm also amazed at the ice export out of the Fram and the fact that the Nares remained open all winter. Especially the Nares, because it's certainly not going to form and ice arch now. It seems like the Arctic is bleeding ice out of everywhere and warmer than normal water butting up against it.

[jdallen]

I've asked a contact I have made with the PIOMAS team to get access to daily numbers.

We already get that data every 2 weeks, most of the time at least. Or do you mean in near real time?

I've been out of circulation for a while for a variety of reasons.  Please forgive me for impudence as I try to catch up with you all, and get acquainted with the resources the forum has now that I may not have been aware of.

[Jim Hunt]

Please forgive me

You're forgiven JD!

Jinlun Zhang uploads PIOMAS daily gridded thickness data every couple of weeks to:

https://pscfiles.apl.washington.edu/zhang/PIOMAS/data/v2.1/hiday/

I crunch the numbers, but Steven does it in greater detail:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg354699.html#msg354699

[The Walrus]

ps: Volume from PIOMAS data
Total Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in mid-April,

Peripheral Seas Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in late March,

High Arctic Volume tends to reach maximum in early May.

So in several ways the freezing season is not over.

click images to enlarge

I'm very surprised that it takes another month or so for the volume to go down in the peripheral seas. This is a clear indicator IMHO that extent isn't the whole story. Or should I say the real story? Extent is just an indicator of the amount of open water that can soak up the energy from the sun, but doesn't really tell us more than that. (edited)

These volume charts also tell us that the real melting season only lasts for about 4,5 months in the high Arctic, while freezing goes on for almost 2/3 of the year. Hence my point that the melting season just isn't long enough to melt the entire ice cube yet.

Hope we can see more of these volume charts during the coming seasons. They're so interesting...

If you check our gero's DMI temperature graph, it may give a good indication as to why the volume is still increasing.

[Frosty]

Would not rule out a record low at some point in the melt season though, didn't see one at all last year but previous years have seen record lows at some point which again is significant for me if it happens again this year.

The NSIDC *daily* sea ice extent has already been at a record low on four days this year:

• February 1 & 2
• March 14 & 15

Also worth noting that every single calendar day of the year has a record for that day no older than 2010.

[jdallen]

Please forgive me

You're forgiven JD!

Jinlun Zhang uploads PIOMAS daily gridded thickness data every couple of weeks to:

https://pscfiles.apl.washington.edu/zhang/PIOMAS/data/v2.1/hiday/

I crunch the numbers, but Steven does it in greater detail:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg354699.html#msg354699

Thank you.  This is excellent, and I'm glad I'm aware now so we're not duplicating effort.  I'll look to other data sets to stir through.  My current candidates - relevant to some thinking I've been doing recently - atmospheric moisture and ocean temperatures.  Gridded data for that may prove challenging , but I'll do what I can.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I've been asked to start making these forecasts again, so here it goes...
Let me know with a like if you enjoy them too and want to see more of them.

This first one is a little bit longer than before, because I wanted to capture this heat intrusion from start to finish. And it's a whopper! You can see on Oren's AMSR2 animation how the wind has pushed away some of the ice along the Siberian side. So the force was strong in this one.

Hope you like it!

[Alexander555]

Wow, el nino is coming in strong and has really begun to take over. I know there is always a lag effect, but the melting season is just getting started. I still don't know what to expect, but I do think there is potential for this season to be a unique one. I'm also amazed at the ice export out of the Fram and the fact that the Nares remained open all winter. Especially the Nares, because it's certainly not going to form and ice arch now. It seems like the Arctic is bleeding ice out of everywhere and warmer than normal water butting up against it.

Here you can see the progress since march 1. You can let it go faster if you want. And the North Atlantic SST has never been so high for this time of the year. Almost 20 degree C. https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-ced2&wm_id=sstanom&year=2023

[jdallen]

Here you can see the progress since march 1. You can let it go faster if you want. And the North Atlantic SST has never been so high for this time of the year. Almost 20 degree C. https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-ced2&wm_id=sstanom&year=2023

Don't want to rain too hard on your parade, but the relevant temps are 5-10c, not 20.

That said, a 2-4C SST (surface, not two meter) anomaly immediately south and east of Svalbard is pretty unsettling, especially this early when we're hoping to get more ice formation in the CAB and adjacent seas.

[Alexander555]

I think it's some kind of average. And again i think, the equator is the southern border of the North Atlantic. Plenty water is above 25 degree C. https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-ced2&wm_id=sst&year=2023

[jdallen]

That said, a 2-4C SST (surface, not two meter) anomaly immediately south and east of Svalbard is pretty unsettling, especially this early when we're hoping to get more ice formation in the CAB and adjacent seas.

...  in the Barents is only 0.715C

6903589 in the WSC on the NW corner of Svalbard is warmer at 2.47C

Eh.  Probably how I was interpreting the projection.

[Freegrass]

There seems to be a lack of buttressing to the north in the two recent wind driven shifts.

When I look at all the "action" in the Beaufort sea, I can't help to think that the ice there must be a right whole "mess", right?

We've got a lot of stacking going on against the CAA, but isn't the same thing happening in the Beaufort sea? A lot of ice there must be piling up, right? I can't imagine there being a single flat surface of ice in that sea... I wouldn't want to go on a walk there...

How does that influence the volume in the BS?  Bad abbreviation 

[jdallen]

There seems to be a lack of buttressing to the north in the two recent wind driven shifts.

When I look at all the "action" in the Beaufort sea, I can't help to think that the ice there must be a right whole "mess", right?

We've seen this before. Terra-modis band31 comparison of the Beaufort today with a similar date in 2013.