The 2023 melting season

[Comradez]

Rapid albedo loss going on right now in the CAA, about a week earlier than last year, and just slightly behind 2012 which saw an incredibly early CAA albedo loss.

[Michael Hauber]

Looks like the majority of the central Arctic basin now shows surface melt.  This is estimated by using MODIS channel 3-6-8 and the widespread areas of red rather than orange surface visible.

A somewhat subjective attempt to estimate dates from previous years when we achieved basin wide surface melt (complicated by clouds).

2007 June 6
2008 June 10
2009 June 19
2010 June 16
2011 June 15
2012 June 8
2013 June 16
2014 June 19
2015 June 15
2016 June 22 (possibly June 10 but clouds)
2017 June 22
2018 June 13
2019 June 16
2020 June 16
2021 June 16
2022 June 24
2023 June 14

I think its clearly behind 2007 and 2012, but quite competitive with other years.

Potential issue is if of time of day of satellite pass has changed over the years.  I've been noticing that for each pass over the Beaufort the leading edge (earlier in the solar day) has been noticeably less melty than the trailing edge.

[jdallen]

Looks like the majority of the central Arctic basin now shows surface melt.  This is estimated by using MODIS channel 3-6-8 and the widespread areas of red rather than orange surface visible.
<snippage>

I think its clearly behind 2007 and 2012, but quite competitive with other years.

<snippage>

Surface melt may not be competitive with 2007/2012, but based on today's numbers from Gerontocrat, the CAB may be starting a serious crash.  The peripheral seas are not much better, and for end of season purposes are much less relevant.

Other years *have* had similarly steep declines, 2016 in particular, but a graph like this suggests to me we may want to grab ahold of our hats.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3909.0;attach=377330;image

[Paul]

Looks like the majority of the central Arctic basin now shows surface melt.  This is estimated by using MODIS channel 3-6-8 and the widespread areas of red rather than orange surface visible.
<snippage>

I think its clearly behind 2007 and 2012, but quite competitive with other years.

<snippage>

Surface melt may not be competitive with 2007/2012, but based on today's numbers from Gerontocrat, the CAB may be starting a serious crash.  The peripheral seas are not much better, and for end of season purposes are much less relevant.

Other years *have* had similarly steep declines, 2016 in particular, but a graph like this suggests to me we may want to grab ahold of our hats.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3909.0;attach=377330;image

Yeah it's been a strange start because weather wise for May and June, it's been chilly across the CAB yet the numbers in terms of arra in the CAB look alarming. Might not necessary be melt ponds because I like ok at worldview and it still looks largely white too me so dispersion could be quite severe yet even looking at that, compare it to 2013 where it looks really obvious, dispersion does not look all that severe but it's notable compared to other years.

Also interesting to note, actual Arctic basin ice is the highest it's been for years going by Zack Labes chart so clearly other years has have more momentum because of open water alone yet when you see the CAB numbers the n there might still be an unexpected surprise or two. Personally at this moment I still don't think we will see record lows nor do I think we will finish below 4 million on terms of extent but still a long way to go.

[peterlvmeng]

Compared to the sinking of Titanic, the front goes into water first whereas the rear goes up high to the sky. This could maintain a few minutes. The people at the rear of the ship thought the ship will not sink immediately as we are so up to the sky from the water surface. Quite similar?

[johnm33]

More circumstantial evidence that an extraordinary amount of cold saline water is making it's way south.

[Aluminium]

June 10-14.

2022.

[uniquorn]

Snow turned into melt pond for SIMB3 651330 despite cloud over the last 2 days.

https://go.nasa.gov/3oWHgqU

Two buoy temperature images, the first optimised to show ocean temperatures, the second for melting ice temps.

Regular buoy updates are moving to https://det.social/@uniquorn

[oren]

Regular buoy updates are moving to https://det.social/@uniquorn

Thanks. Here's a nice chart from the link.

[Kate]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-16/global-climate-records-breaking-rapid-rate/102484434

[oren]

It's balmy (as expected) in the western CAA, and the melt ponds are clearly showing on Worldview.

[grixm]

Veritable blowtorch over the laptev sea is forecast early next week.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

Having followed Arctic Sea ice for over last 20 years and being off from day-to-day viewing, I must say that the anecdotal feeling is that the Arctic sea ice this year is more pulverised that previously. That does not mean that it has never been so pulverised, but it appears rather clear that number of leads and widening of gaps appear there with no sea ice area nearing 100% near lead free state. Pulverised sea ice increases its 3-dimensional contact area with sea water allowing a greater transfer of heat between the two. This enhances melting as more heat is extracted from water. On the other hand, pulverising increases white surface area as broken ice aligns with sea surface and over larger areas may generate more clouds when moist air encounters the region - while reducing localised evaporation though in cold Arctic air it is minimal. What causes pulverisation? May be more winds, sitting on top of warmer water may soften ice, and thinner and newer ice are weaker. Looking at Antarctic sea ice situation, a similar sea ice area / extent is occurring there currently too, but a decade or so later than the process in the Arctic sea ice. As Antarctic is more dynamic, the swings there are bigger but the eventual fall out there could also become more rapid. There the continent stabilises sea ice and is entirely controlled by ocean currents and northernly winds.

[JayW]

Looks like the majority of the central Arctic basin now shows surface melt.  This is estimated by using MODIS channel 3-6-8 and the widespread areas of red rather than orange surface visible.


I think its clearly behind 2007 and 2012, but quite competitive with other years.

Potential issue is if of time of day of satellite pass has changed over the years.  I've been noticing that for each pass over the Beaufort the leading edge (earlier in the solar day) has been noticeably less melty than the trailing edge.

RAMMB slider using the VIIRS data has more passes that cover a given area each day.  The RGB snowmelt composite from Meteo France picks up on the surface changes this week.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&sec=northern_hemisphere&x=15328.1728515625&y=16605.650390625&z=1&angle=0&im=24&ts=2&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=meteofrance_snow&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

(Click to run)

[oren]

I've moved several posts to the Freeform thread. Thanks to those responding.

[Paul]

Veritable blowtorch over the laptev sea is forecast early next week.

Yet by the 18Z run a slight shift in wind direction is meaning those high temperatures on the ice are much reduced. The heatdome is still there so it will be interesting if/when the heat has more affect on the ice in the ESS/Laptev.

Really a mixed bag so far in terms of the ice, the actual basin ice is the highest it's been for a long time according to Zack Labes charts yet the ice is quite diffused in large areas really and history usually suggests diffused ice into individual floes usually stay that way and makes the centre of the ice pack more vulnable to open water developing and open water on the edge making its way towards the weakened centre pack.

Yet whilst there is melt ponds in the usual places, part of the ice pack does look whiter than some years. Excluding the fast ice, the ice in the ESS looking towards Wrangel Island looks healthier than it did in 2020/2021 for example.

SSTs in general look a bit below average around the ice also with the exception of the Kara sea, that can quickly change of course though.

Would not be too surprised if we see a higher extent but a ugly looking ice pack like we did in 2013, the warning signs in 2013 was already to be seen even back in June and whilst imo I don't think the pack is as diffused, it is noticeable that it makes it interesting too see how it develops.

[nadir]

Man this doesn’t look like 2013 at all where there was a moderate persistent storm for like one month plus including solstice shadowing most of the Arctic Ocean.

Since anticyclones are not that biting and strong and ridging all the way to the Pole is resisting, I would draw an analogy with 2014, but still that was a very snowy stagnant cold year and this is not.

For the time being 2023 is being 2023. Quite particular. Not super torches but I feel it’s like a warm year, maybe I am wrong (human intelligence ~ AI these days).

[HapHazard]

It's balmy (as expected) in the western CAA, and the melt ponds are clearly showing on Worldview.

In the Beaufort now as well.

[oren]

An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI). This time with a new format and a newer version of the SIC-LEADS algorithm. More information available in the AWI thread.
Click to animate and click again for maximum resolution.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

10-day ice drift average, courtesy of Steven's site. https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

Cumulative Fram area export according to OSI-SAF, again thanks to Steven.

And the "weighted SMOS" chart, indicating the amount of Arctic sea ice pixels which have escaped surface wetness, as calculated and produced by Steven in https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/surface-melt.

[oren]

A look at sea ice area according to AWI/AMSR2 in the High Arctic seas as well as Hudson, split into 2 posts.
The melting season in the CAB has barely begun, with some apparent area drops due to melt ponding.
The CAA is sticking to low numbers, due to early melt ponding and some actual losses.
The Beaufort is relatively high, this often continues until season's end.
The ESS is in the middle of the pack, season only beginning.
Click to enlarge.

[oren]

The Chukchi is very high for the date, this will probably melt out by min time but may protect the neighboring Beaufort and ESS as well as the CAB.
Laptev is middling, increasing probability of near melt out by min time.
Kara is middling too, in any case near melt out is guaranteed.
Hudson is at record low for AMSR2 dataset, this only means later losses will be smaller, as melt out is guaranteed.

All in all, so far not a spectacular melting season, though of course it's weather that will decide it. A suspicion persists that the ice is thinner and less resilient, following the high winter export via Fram and Nares. We shall see.

[Aluminium]

June 12-16.

2022.

[Paul]

Man this doesn’t look like 2013 at all where there was a moderate persistent storm for like one month plus including solstice shadowing most of the Arctic Ocean.

Since anticyclones are not that biting and strong and ridging all the way to the Pole is resisting, I would draw an analogy with 2014, but still that was a very snowy stagnant cold year and this is not.

For the time being 2023 is being 2023. Quite particular. Not super torches but I feel it’s like a warm year, maybe I am wrong (human intelligence ~ AI these days).

We saw similar conditions in May 2023 to what we did back then in June 2013, it's perhaps a factor why the pack does look diffused.

Also I only said we may see a higher extent but one which hides the state of the ice pack like we did back then, just going by history of what the ice tends to look like by September when it's broken up into floes so early in the melt season.

As for the weather indications are any high pressure could largely break down and we may see a reverse dipole, there is still the threat the increasing heat in Siberia may come into play but it's not a certainty.

[Michael Hauber]

The dispersed area halfway from New Siberian Islands to the pole will be one to watch. It is very early for such a disperse area that deep in the pack to open up.  Compared to the disperse area last year near the pole it is in a location which based on past history is more prone to complete melt out.

[El Cid]

The weather is and has been as boring as possible. And since weather decides (mostly) the fate of every melting season there is no reason to expect anything extraordinary. The only question is whether record Fram export did cause any serious damage within the main pack. If so, then despite the weather we could see something interesting but I don't count on it. I think I should go back to sleep and come back at the beginning of August.

[nadir]

The weather is and has been as boring as possible. And since weather decides (mostly) the fate of every melting season there is no reason to expect anything extraordinary. The only question is whether record Fram export did cause any serious damage within the main pack. If so, then despite the weather we could see something interesting but I don't count on it. I think I should go back to sleep and come back at the beginning of August.

I agree with all this, except for the last sentence. Since weather is completely unpredictable beyond seven days, there is as much reason to expect nothing extraordinary as to expect all things extraordinary beyond June 25. So you should go back to sleep and come back in June 25.

[El Cid]

. Since weather is completely unpredictable beyond seven days, there is as much reason to expect nothing extraordinary as to expect all things extraordinary beyond June 25. So you should go back to sleep and come back in June 25.

Tru dat!

I will be back

[Aluminium]

June 14-18.

2022.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 Days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
And 30 day HYCOM
Large GiFs!

[kassy]

I suspect that area fluctuation (In the central Arctic) is just the inherent difficulty in deciphering melt ponds, which area measurements tend to treat as open water.  This is a region where extent measurements show better reproducibility.

Looking at the animations above it is probably ice moving into the area.

[The Walrus]

There appears to be an odd convergence in recent years around day 170. 

[kassy]

How do you define odd in this context? And how relevant is that to 2023 anyway?

[Diaminedave]

"There appears to be an odd convergence in recent years around day 170"

Shape and constraint of the Arctic ocean by continents and amount of possible insolation roughly coincide (with roughly similar thickness of sea ice over whole basin)?

[morganism]

solstice sunlight ?

[nadir]

"There appears to be an odd convergence in recent years around day 170"

Shape and constraint of the Arctic ocean by continents and amount of possible insolation roughly coincide (with roughly similar thickness of sea ice over whole basin)?

The geographic constraint makes a lot of sense. Many peripherals seas out of Arctic proper well in the way total ice melt out. Simultaneously, the Arctic ice pack, while suffering more or less area decline, sees an ice pack edge retreat that is just picking up speed right now. These factors help ice extent be similar during these days year after year.

Still, I agree with Walrus that the convergence is still odd. The dispersion in ice extent seems to collapse. Casuality combined with the aforementioned factors?

[FishOutofWater]

The month of May was stormy and cloudy over the Arctic ocean and it was cooler than normal from the pole to the Chukchi sea. May was a good month for maintaining sea ice in the high Arctic.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Heat has built up in the north Atlantic ocean while the Arctic ocean has had cooler than normal weather in May. Iceland just had record high June temperatures of 27.8C  while the Arctic has more ice than the 2010 decadal average. Eventually the build up ocean heat in the far north Atlantic will affect the Arctic but probably not this summer.

The slow start in May means that we're unlikely to be chasing any records this September because early meltponds increase heat uptake in the Arctic ocean and ice melt later in the summer.

[The Walrus]

It was not just May, April was actually better for the ice.  On April 1, the ice extent was 100k below the 10-year average for the date.  By the end of the month, the ice climbed to 200k above the 10-year average, eventually rising to 400k above by mid May.  Currently, the extent is almost 250k above.

[Aluminium]

June 16-20.

2022.

[Paul]

The quiet weather is still being shown in the output so I'm not expecting this thread to get much busier soon. Low pressure mostly centred across the CAB with only half hearted warmth on the edges(across the ESS ATM and then looks like the Beaufort may get a little bit of warmth after a brief chiller snap) but nothing sustained or threatening looking.

Looking at the ice on worldview, I still get the impression a decent size low could start to diffuse the ice like it did last year but in comparison to some years, momentum feels slow yet Im not too convinced it's as slow as 2014 for example. Nevertheless I'll be amazed if ice extent finishes below 4 million unless the record breaking SSTS in the north Atlantic somehow start making its presense felt in the Barants sea.

[gerontocrat]

+ve SST anomalies creeping North in the last 7 days (https://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php)

click gif to start, runs 5 times

[Tammukka]

NSIDC daily extent droped 247 000km^3. I guess its partly some mask thing, but its largest daily drop that I have seen. Has the high sst really kicked in or what hapenned?

[baltic dweller]

Currently this drop seems to be mostly driven by the reduction in Hudson Bay sea ice extent.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC daily extent droped 247 000km^3. I guess its partly some mask thing, but its largest daily drop that I have seen. Has the high sst really kicked in or what hapenned?

The mask is only changed on the 1st day of a month. The one day sea ice area dropped by 190k on the 20th June.

But one swallow does not make a summer. Will these above average sea ice losses be maintained? In my book 2 days is just 2 dots on the graph, 3 days suggests maybe a trend, 5 days is real. Only time will tell.

ps: km2, not km3

pps: Sea ice drift map suggests mostly quiet weather in the Arctic in the last few days

[Paul]

Wow, the ECM today has definately produced one of the most eye catching medium to long range forecasts I have seen so far this melt season. Massive Beaufort ridge and it does start to develop as early as the 168 or so hours range. No doubt the details will be different on the next run but goes to show how things can change quickly.

On the subject of large extent drops, I'm assuming the melt in Hudson Bay is the quickest on record? The heatwaves has certainly left it's mark there that is for sure. Would not surprise me if there is virtually no ice left by the start of July which would be unheard of surely?

[KenB]

On the subject of large extent drops, I'm assuming the melt in Hudson Bay is the quickest on record? The heatwaves has certainly left it's mark there that is for sure. Would not surprise me if there is virtually no ice left by the start of July which would be unheard of surely?

Not sure if it qualifies as "virtually no ice left," but check out 30 June 2010 on Worldview for a clear view of only a bit of ice along the SE shoreline. 

[gerontocrat]

On the subject of large extent drops, I'm assuming the melt in Hudson Bay is the quickest on record? The heatwaves has certainly left it's mark there that is for sure. Would not surprise me if there is virtually no ice left by the start of July which would be unheard of surely?

Not sure if it qualifies as "virtually no ice left," but check out 30 June 2010 on Worldview for a clear view of only a bit of ice along the SE shoreline.

Certainly a very fast melt. Hudson Bay sea ice area currently 2nd lowest in the 45 year satellite record.

The NSIDC Hudson Bay area includes Foxe Basin in the far North, which often is the last to melt out.

[Comradez]

The laggard area this year seems to be the Chukchi Sea.  There's even still snow on the ground on the Russian side of the Bering Strait. 

But on the other hand, the warmth around the western CAA and Hudson Bay has been unreal and is slated to become even more fierce.  I know this is 7-10 days out, but it would be plausible with how early the snow has melted out on Banks Island and Victoria Island.  I wonder what this will do to the ice in the western CAA and eastern Beaufort?

[Eco-Author]

If you don't mind me saying, Hudson is not the only sea looking bad... Compared to 2021 where Kara had a good bit of ice by year's end, 2022's heatwave seems to have set up this year for another complete melt out with open water right where 2021 remained strong.  Lots of sun pouring into Laptev... Might be building for an Atlantic side assault later this year.  Late season storm late last year in Kara and Barrents likely served to mix this heat deep to still be at play this year... 

[jdallen]

You are correct - the Hudson is not the only sea looking bad.  Foxe basin is unusually low for this point in the year.  CAA looks like the NW passage will melt out this year, both N & S.   The Kara has about a little over 2 weeks left before it is mostly melted out, judging from the ice, as does the Barents, unless it get export from the CAB.

Laptev looks about normal, ESS, a little behind but *widely* covered by melt ponds.

Beaufort doesn’t look unusual, ice everywhere is pretty thoroughly scrambled.

We now watch for two things - a cloud free dome forming over a significant chunk of the ice, or a major cyclone.

It’s all about the weather now.

[Aluminium]

June 18-22.

2022.