Attached are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of August 18th, the daily SOI value was down to -7.34, the 30 day avg was down slightly to -7.62, and the 90 day avg was down slightly to -1.81. This is indicative of atmospheric conditions reflective of ENSO-neutral, but with very weak El Nino like tendencies. According to GFS models for SLP and precipitation, a pattern favoring weak-moderate negative daily SOI values should continue for the next several days. A high pressure system will be passing south of Tahiti during the next 2-3 days, likely putting a damper on the more moderate negative daily values that were expected. The SPCZ and slightly above avg SSTA at Tahiti should help to counter this high pressure system, keeping the SLP pattern at Tahiti favorable. By this weekend(August 23), low pressure is expected to be passing south of Tahiti while the SPCZ looks to be possibly rebuilding just west of Tahiti. If this were to occur it would help facilitate more moderate negative daily SOI values. Over all, the SLP pattern at Darwin and Tahiti looks to support negative or at least near negative daily SOI values for the next several days. This would in turn, cause the 30 and 90 day avg SOI values to either continue dropping very slowly or at least hold at around what they currently are. Maybe through Sunday.(see 2nd attached image, which shows the SLP/precip forecast for Aug 20th on top and Aug 23rd on bottom). NOTE: The SOI is very Volatile, due to the many oceanic and atmospheric variables that can affect it. Therefore, its hard accurately predict more than a few days into the future. So please keep in mind this is just a possibility and relies on the accuracy of weather forecast models.