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peterlvmeng

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The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:57:49 AM »
I think it is time to open it.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2019, 11:24:56 PM by Neven »

Wherestheice

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2019, 10:12:04 AM »
I disagree
"When the ice goes..... F***

oren

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2019, 10:13:13 AM »
More importantly, Neven disagrees as well.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2019, 10:36:23 AM »
There is already a thread for the upcoming freezing season that I started a couple of days ago. And that thread was blocked by Mr. Neven😁

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2019, 02:12:29 PM »
SIE, SIA and volume are still declining with minimums in extent normally occurring in the middle of September and we are opening a freeze season thread?

Klondike Kat

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2019, 02:17:01 PM »
Too soon.  Wait until the ice approaches a minimum.

HapHazard

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2019, 09:50:50 PM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

Neven

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2019, 11:25:19 PM »
I think it is time to open it.

It is now, one month later.
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2019, 11:52:35 PM »
The ESS cools but it still warmer in general. At this point I don't expect quickly extent increase in September. The peripheral seas will be ready to freeze in mid-October likely. But it need the heat advection to repeat the 2016 pattern. Also the land snow cover extent is now about normal despite some early snowfalls in Siberia

Paddy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2019, 11:59:31 PM »
I think it is time to open it.

It is now, one month later.

Changing over on the equinox as we are seems highly appropriate (even if it would have been a little early last year)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2019, 12:56:49 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
September 21 - 26

Wind + Temp @ Surface
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sailor

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2019, 01:24:48 AM »
The ESS cools but it still warmer in general. At this point I don't expect quickly extent increase in September. The peripheral seas will be ready to freeze in mid-October likely. But it need the heat advection to repeat the 2016 pattern. Also the land snow cover extent is now about normal despite some early snowfalls in Siberia
Agreed,  the persistent anticyclone that is about to end has kept the ice nicely compacted, at the same time it has precipitated the refreezing inside the pack due to heat loss (reason why Gero observed as anomalous a week of extent drops coexisting with same week of area increases). 

Looking forward, yes it’s hard to imagine a fast refreeze with so much heat in the open ocean in general and the pack so closed and compact. ESS first?
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2019, 01:31:58 AM »

Changing over on the equinox as we are seems highly appropriate (even if it would have been a little early last year)

For most of the world, this year the equinox will not occur until Monday 23rd September.

sark

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2019, 04:46:32 AM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.
I am not a scientist

RealityCheck

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2019, 08:05:54 AM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.
I agree with John Adams, then. It explains much about human nature, and our individual and collective behaviour eg towards our planet. There are some profound philosophies that agree also.... but I am already too OT for that here... I return to being the hero of my own dream...
Sic transit gloria mundi

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2019, 08:36:07 AM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.

And here at the ASIF the honour of being the anointed thread starter comes with the heavy responsibility of trying to keep public order.

Welcome to the club Peter! If you're still around?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2019, 10:21:04 AM »
The new ice is forming on the Laptev side, ice edge moves to the North by winds

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2019, 10:27:10 AM »
Apparently, Neven didn't reopen my refreezing thread that was first I will reiterate my text from my post in that thread:

"First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020...."

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2019, 10:30:24 AM »
Archimid and Stephen, you should reiterate your posts from that thread too. After that, Neven can probably remove it.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2019, 02:04:03 PM »
Updated full-size versions available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.2905.msg229994.html#msg229994

Hindcast: 9/18 to 9/22, Forecast: 9/22 to 9/26. Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (tiny version)

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2019, 04:33:26 PM »
At the risk of drifting off the topic of the OP, a cross post from Arctic Background:

"The Hearts in the Ice Expedition"

Quote
Hearts in the Ice is a platform for social engagement around climate change, started by Hilde Fålun Strøm and Sunniva Sorby.  It is a 9-month overwintering project in the High Arctic of Svalbard, Norway. Starting in August 2019 Hilde (Norway) and Sunniva (Canada) will inhabit the 20 sq mtr trappers cabin “Bamsebu”- 78’N. They will be the first women to over-winter in Svalbard "without men".

The project will serve as a platform for global dialogue and engagement concerning the changes we are experiencing in the Polar Regions which impacts the world and what we all, individually, might be able to do about it. Life at Bamsebu will be broadcast and published via Iridium satellite through social media to scientists, school children, adventurers, and interested citizens from around the world.


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2019, 07:06:57 PM »
As the freezing season begins, here are some relevant things to track, besides total area/extent and total volume. The freezing season is a slow race, with a bit less drama than the melting season, but in the last few years it's been extremely interesting nonetheless.
* Tealight's FDD anomaly calculation, which normally correlates with PIOMAS volume.
* Wipneus' regional UH AMSR2 charts, focusing on the behavior of each sea, depending on the time of year. For the coming month, we shall wonder if the 2018 weirdness will repeat itself in the CAB.
* DMI's Temps north of 80o, which although does not give a proper average and is highly biased towards the pole, still gives some comparison with past years and some indication of how bad (warm) winter is. Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.

sailor

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2019, 11:21:00 PM »
As the freezing season begins, here are some relevant things to track...

* DMI's Temps north of 80o, which although does not give a proper average and is highly biased towards the pole, still gives some comparison with past years and some indication of how bad (warm) winter is. Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.
Thanks Oren!
Well it's obviously not that useless in Winter....
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2019, 07:36:57 AM »
September 18-22.

2018.

Equinox.

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2019, 02:31:48 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 22- 28

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
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jplotinus

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2019, 05:19:32 PM »
Divergence of DMI temp from norm suggests there may be another day or two of SIE declines before end of September. Plus, worldview shows little or no gain on Atlantic front between Svalbard and FJL, as I see it.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2019, 05:38:11 PM »
The NSIDC haven't called the minimum yet. Here's their September 17th update:

"Sloshing Around in the Polar Twilight"

Quote
The end of the Arctic sea ice melt season is nigh. The last couple of weeks have seen small rises and falls in ice extent, primarily due to changes in wind patterns. However, falling temperatures will soon accelerate the pace of ice growth.

Arctic sea ice extent was 4.21 million square kilometers (1.62 million square miles) on September 16, which is likely near the seasonal minimum extent that is expected within the next week.

However based on Wipneus' numbers I have no doubt Neven was right to open this thread!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2019, 05:59:19 PM »
However based on Wipneus' numbers I have no doubt Neven was right to open this thread!
I think so too, especially with cyclones showing up again that most likely will disperse some of the ice that isn't frozen solid yet.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2019, 06:55:33 PM »
Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.

 ;D Which would benefit us all.

jplotinus

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2019, 08:16:13 PM »
Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.

 ;D Which would benefit us all.

+1

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2019, 10:18:16 PM »
Nippy in the far north today.

Minimum of -19.4 C at Alert, Nunavut and down to -19.9 C at Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland.

Cape MJ (4m ASL) was colder than the -17.5 C min at Summit Camp (3202 ASL) 

Edit: I notice too that Nullschool is currently reading over 10 C too high in the vicinity of Cape Morris Jesup.

At 19 UTC it is giving a temperature of +0.4 C whereas actual reading is -12.5 C.

And looking back over last 24 hours Nullschool did not dip below -10 C (in contrast to actual min of -20 C).
« Last Edit: September 23, 2019, 10:55:11 PM by Niall Dollard »

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2019, 11:50:49 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg230235.html#msg230235

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (tiny version)
2019 September 1-15

subgeometer

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #32 on: September 24, 2019, 08:36:16 AM »
Oe last look at the meltig seaso just past - I've posted a bunch of regional animations over on the test space thread , but here's one of the whole arctic drawn from Terra Modis on NASA worldview

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #33 on: September 24, 2019, 01:12:35 PM »
Full-size versions available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg230295.html#msg230295

Hindcast: 9/20 to 9/24, Forecast: 9/24 to 9/28. Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (tiny version)

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #34 on: September 24, 2019, 02:17:48 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 23- 29

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
« Last Edit: September 24, 2019, 02:25:54 PM by Freegrass »
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Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2019, 09:13:15 PM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #36 on: September 24, 2019, 11:46:57 PM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

Image to stay on-topic; ice formation in most sectors, but a bit of contraction in the western Laptev

gandul

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #37 on: September 25, 2019, 01:15:37 AM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

Image to stay on-topic; ice formation in most sectors, but a bit of contraction in the western Laptev
I disagree.

2017 was off-the-charts low on PIOMAS volume starting spring, but was saved by the high continental snow, with a cold late NH spring, maybe it is correlated rather than causal (I think it’s a feedback so it’s both, the albedo feedback does not end in the ocean). 2018 was also a weak melting season.

2019 soon was very low on continental snow, so it was 2016, 2012, 2007...

It’s something to keep an eye in the freezing season. Apparently (I dunno) the warmest the Arctic stays in Winter the greater the snow dumps are in Siberia and possibly over the ice itself. To be proven over additional years, this negative feedback.
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Jim Hunt

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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #39 on: September 25, 2019, 07:54:15 AM »
September 20-24.

2018.

Darvince

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2019, 08:21:55 AM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.
The amount of snow cover on land is not very important until spring, especially late spring in May and June, as that determines the timing of when snow melt begins over the Arctic sea ice.



I wonder if we will see ice return to the north shores of Svalbard this winter? That region seems to be almost unaffected by the changing seasons, with ice cover being almost entirely determined by the strength and warmth of the West Spitsbergen Current.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #41 on: September 25, 2019, 08:38:11 AM »


I wonder if we will see ice return to the north shores of Svalbard this winter? That region seems to be almost unaffected by the changing seasons, with ice cover being almost entirely determined by the strength and warmth of the West Spitsbergen Current.

There are other factors affecting ice cover around Svalbard. Synoptics and the Trans Polar Drift.

Persistent northerly winds will help drive ice against the WSC and vice versa with southerlies.

This article outlines recent changes in the Trans Polar Drift.

https://m.phys.org/news/2019-04-transpolar-drift-falteringsea-ice-nursery.html

SimonF92

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #42 on: September 25, 2019, 09:31:51 AM »
This slide is from a talk given at the 2019 Spring Arctic Seasonal Review.

2019 was a bumper year for snow and the Arctic ice is shot to pieces at the moment.

I have seen snow chat plague these threads so even though its good to be having a debate i'm going to throw in the towel now.

sailor

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #43 on: September 25, 2019, 09:45:33 AM »
Whoa, just browsing the ASIG I noticed compactness is very high for the time of the year. Very fast internal refreeze of a pack that expands not so much...
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Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #44 on: September 25, 2019, 01:46:35 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 24- 30

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2019, 02:00:33 PM by Freegrass »
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subgeometer

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #45 on: September 25, 2019, 04:43:42 PM »
I disagree.

I agree with you! See #5:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/melt-pond-may-2019/

Not disagreeing but it also depends where the snow falls. Quebec vs Taymyr penisular for example. Its the stuff around the Arctic Basin that matters most here isnt it?

Freegrass

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #46 on: September 25, 2019, 07:23:50 PM »
How does snow influence the freezing season? How much does it have to snow to insulate the ice from refreezing?
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #47 on: September 25, 2019, 07:29:13 PM »
Ice drift map, two weeks, daily increments.
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #48 on: September 25, 2019, 09:20:50 PM »
How does snow influence the freezing season? How much does it have to snow to insulate the ice from refreezing?

You hit one of the influences: insulation, which works both ways (freeze & melt). There's also albedo (both on land and ice), melt-pond potential (?), and melting in spring injecting more fresh water into the system (halocline). That's off of the top of my waiting-for-my-morning-coffee head; I may have missed one & others here will be much more knowledgeable than I.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #49 on: September 26, 2019, 12:41:16 PM »
Compaction is extreme, so there is no easy to freeze ice; SSTs are way above anything I have seen before, and there is warmer than average air over the Arctic the next few days. I would say that it is likely that 2019 will get to the first place some time October. Refreeze should be very very slow.
Or the Arctic will trick me again as it usually does :)