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Juan C. García

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2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 02, 2020, 04:58:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 1st, 2020:
     12,432,220 km2, an increase of 77,710 km2.
     2020 starts the year being the 8th lowest on record.
     The 10 lowest years: 2010 to 2020, except for 2012!!!  ;)
     2012 is the 16th lowest year, with 12,746,295 km2, 314,075 above 2020.
     I highlighted 2020. It is not easy to see at the original ADS graph.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 05:16:12 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2020, 02:02:19 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,432,220 km2(January 1, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 78 k, 46 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,468 k, 530 k (6.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,938 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 357 k more than 2016
- Extent is 145 k more than 2018
- Extent is 92 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 80.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 70 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recent days have seen mostly well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.46 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.0 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi. Russia well above average temperatures, Alaska + Canada very cold.

Also a wind down the Fram over the next couple of days.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2020, 05:39:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,400,787 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,400,787    km2      
 142,445    km2   >   2010's average.
 252,393    km2   >   2019
-296,567    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     26    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -20    k   loss
 Other Seas___     19    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     18    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______    -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -20    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 26 k, 31 k LESS than the 2010's average of 57 k.

- 2020 Area  more than the 2010's average by 142 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 252 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 768 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.0 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi. Russia well above average temperatures, Alaska + Canada very cold.

Also a wind down the Fram over the next couple of days.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2020, 04:51:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 2nd, 2020:
     12,474,725 km2, an increase of 42,505 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 10 lowest years (2010 to 2020, except for 2012)
     Highlighted: 2016 & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2020, 01:59:38 PM »
Topic unlocked again.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2020, 02:16:31 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,526,837 km2(January 3, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 52 k, 2 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 50 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,562 k, 528 k (6.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,034 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 263 k more than 2017
- Extent is 3 k more than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 81.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 67 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.33 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.45 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.9 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm, Canada & Alaska cold.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2020, 03:08:58 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3rd January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,480,088 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,480,088    km2      
 138,345    km2   >   2010's average.
 116,449    km2   >   2019
-304,781    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     46    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     39    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -15    k   loss
 Other Seas___     22    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     23    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain

Daily gain 46 k, 0 k LESS than the 2010's average of 46 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 138 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 116 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 767 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days and on this day at average.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.9 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm, Canada & Alaska cold.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2020, 04:52:07 AM »
Topic unlocked again.

Thank you, Neven.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 4th, 2020:
     12,577,322 km2, an increase of 50,485 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 10 lowest years (2010 to 2020, except for 2012).
     Highlighted: 2016 & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2020, 02:51:10 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,577,322 km2(January 4, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 13 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,613 k, 542 k (6.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,071 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 207 k more than 2017
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 82.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 66 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.36 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.48 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.6 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2020, 03:40:31 PM »
Quote
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
Interesting that extant is actually less than we were last year.
Area is a little more, however.
Does this give us any tea leaves for the coming melting season?
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2020, 03:59:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,542,113 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,542,113    km2      
 150,730    km2   >   2010's average.
 60,556    km2   >   2019
-281,114    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     62    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     47    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas___     19    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     21    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     13    k   gain
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     14    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    15    k   gain

Daily gain 62 k, 12 k MORE than the 2010's average of 50 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 138 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 61 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 760 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days and on this day at average.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.6 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2020, 09:42:55 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for December 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average December extent is now 12,69 M km². December 2019 had an average extent of 11,95 M km², which is 0,74 M km² less than that average and the fifth lowest ever recorded since 1978.
The rapid re-freeze now also into the peripheral seas (see gerontocrat's daily postings) pushed the actual value above the red long term linear trend line by 0,64 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this December should have been at 11,31 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has nevertheless increased by two digits (-0,0560 instead of -0,0558).

See attached graph.
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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2020, 10:43:23 PM »
Quote
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
Interesting that extant is actually less than we were last year.
Area is a little more, however.
Does this give us any tea leaves for the coming melting season?

Both are above the 2010's average though. Can't imagine being able to tease out a forecast from these measurements.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #13 on: January 06, 2020, 05:28:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 5th, 2020:
     12,602,251 km2, an increase of 24,929 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 11 lowest years on Jan 5th (coincidentally 2010 to 2020).
     Highlighted the years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019 & 2016) and 2020.

     Edit: Coincidentally also, the 15 lowest years on Jan 5th are the 15 last years: 2006 to 2020.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2020, 05:38:54 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2020, 11:35:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,602,251 km2(January 5, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 25 k, 19 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,638 k, 523 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,115 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 179 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 82.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 65 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.47 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.3 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2020, 03:44:43 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,600,587 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,600,587    km2      
 156,615    km2   >   2010's average.
 10,162    km2   >   2019
-262,103    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     58    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     35    k   gain
 Central Seas__     6    k   gain
 Other Seas___     18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     17    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     13    k   gain
 Greenland____    -2    k   loss
 Barents ______     7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain

Daily gain 58 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 53 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 157 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 10 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 723 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Daily Extent gains have stalled in 2020. Might see an effect on area gain in the next few days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.3 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2020, 05:04:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 6th, 2020:
     12,621,025 km2, an increase of 18,774 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years on Jan 6th (coincidentally 2006 to 2020).
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #17 on: January 07, 2020, 11:01:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,621,025 km2(January 6, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 19 k, 26 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,657 k, 497 k (6.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,160 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 231 k more than 2017
- Extent is 40 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 59 k (0.5%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 82.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 64 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #18 on: January 07, 2020, 03:17:04 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,650,803 km2
                                 
[Total Area         
 11,650,803    km2      
 157,135    km2   >   2010's average.
-21,757    km2   <   2019
-245,672    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     50    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain
 Central Seas__     11    k   gain
 Other Seas___     13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     19    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______     3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    13    k   gain

Daily gain 50 k, 0 k MORE than the 2010's average of 50 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 157 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 22 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 703 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Daily Extent gains have stalled in 2020. Might see a greater effect on area gain in the next few days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2020, 05:01:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 7th, 2020:
     12,658,673 km2, an increase of 37,648 km2.
     2020 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2020, 10:40:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,658,673 km2(January 7, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 38 k, 9 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 29k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,694 k, 506 k (6.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,188 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 322 k more than 2017
- Extent is 53 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 68 k (0.5%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 83.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 63 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.36 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.48 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2020, 05:25:06 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,712,342 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,712,342    km2      
 177,035    km2   >   2010's average.
-11,229    km2   <   2019
-226,635    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     62    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     24    k   gain
 Central Seas__     20    k   gain
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     16    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______     2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 62 k, 20 k MORE than the 2010's average of 42k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 177 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 11 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 731 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Daily Extent gains have stalled in 2020. I expected to see a greater reduction in area gain . Wrong again.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up soon.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea still happening.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2020, 05:09:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2020:
     12,699,873 km2, an increase of 41,200 km2.
     2020 is now 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2020, 12:10:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,699,873 km2(January 8, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 41 k, 16 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,736 k, 522 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,214 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 371 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 84 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 83.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 62 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recent days continue to see  some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2020, 04:23:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,768,604 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,768,604    km2      
 198,832    km2   >   2010's average.
 6,788    km2   >   2019
-211,927    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     56    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas__     28    k   gain
 Other Seas___     20    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     15    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____    -8    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 56 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 34 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 199 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 7 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 767 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2020, 04:44:52 PM »
Quote
- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 199 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 7 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 767 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
We are almost tied with 2019, which was a prelude to a spring with the lowest areas on record.
Don't celebrate yet.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

pauldry600

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #26 on: January 09, 2020, 06:32:12 PM »
Yes Spring will tell the tale.

Id expect a lot of fast melt for a time as a lot of ice only a couple of months old due to late freezeup.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #27 on: January 09, 2020, 08:46:10 PM »
6 seas still in play as regards area. NSIDC area graphs attached

Okhotsk Sea - average daily area gains so far
Bering Sea - in recovery mode (for how long?)
Hudson Bay - almost full up at an average time.
Baffin Bay - continuing average area daily gains from a well below average minimum.


"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #28 on: January 09, 2020, 08:52:44 PM »
NSIDC area graphs attached for the last 2 seas of the 6 seas still in play as regards area

Greenland Sea - Area currently at 2010's average
Barents Sea - Area continues at well above 2010's average

Whoops - forgot the St Lawrence Sea, which is late starting significant refreeze
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #29 on: January 10, 2020, 05:11:19 AM »
They took a little more time than normal. Now I have a clue of why, but not yet of where...

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 9th, 2020:
     12,676,988 km2, a drop of -22,885 km2.
     2020 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2020, 05:29:19 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #30 on: January 10, 2020, 11:14:07 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,676,988 km2(January 9, 2020)

- Extent gain loss on this day 23 k, 68 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 45 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,713 k, 454 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,259 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 351 k more than 2017
- Extent is 108 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 16 k (0.1%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 83.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 61 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.26 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.38 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.5 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #31 on: January 10, 2020, 03:26:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,794,438 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,794,438    km2      
 194,868    km2   >   2010's average.
-3,572    km2   <   2019
-226,327    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     26    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -10    k   loss
 Central Seas__     18    k   gain
 Other Seas___     18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____    -15    k   loss
 Barents ______    -14    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 26 k, 8 k LESS than the 2010's average of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 195 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 4 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 794 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.5 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #32 on: January 10, 2020, 03:37:25 PM »
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Since we are in the freezing season, it is also interesting to check the years following the minimums.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #33 on: January 11, 2020, 04:53:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 10th, 2020:
     12,664,374 km2, a drop of -12,614 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record (and back to under 2010's average).
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #34 on: January 11, 2020, 05:00:30 AM »
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Since we are in the freezing season, it is also interesting to check the years following the minimums.
Hi etienne.

I have been including 15 years on the graph because 2012 is the most important of all the years and it is now in that position. I usually include less years on the graph, to make easy to follow the lowest years on each day. In a way, the ADS lines are thin, so I also highlight some years, not always the same.

In which years are you interested?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2020, 08:28:24 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,676,988 km2(January 9, 2020)

- Extent gain loss on this day 13 k, 69 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 56 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,700 k, 386 k (4.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,315 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 328 k more than 2017
- Extent is 179 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 52 k (0.4%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 84.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 60 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.19 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.31 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.7 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

etienne

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #36 on: January 11, 2020, 12:44:48 PM »

In which years are you interested?

I like very much what you do and can check myself the graphs when I wonder something. I just thought that a minimum has a freezing season before it that might have prepared it and one after it that support the consequences, and both are interesting to look at.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2020, 01:29:51 PM by etienne »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #37 on: January 11, 2020, 11:52:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,805,775 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,805,775    km2      
 179,549    km2   >   2010's average.
-19,803    km2   <   2019
-250,805    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     11    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -13    k   loss
 Central Seas__     9    k   gain
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____    -15    k   loss
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 11 k, 16 k LESS than the 2010's average of 27 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 180 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 20 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 800 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.7 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue for some time.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #38 on: January 12, 2020, 06:36:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 11th, 2020:
     12,710,538 km2, an increase of 46,164 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #39 on: January 12, 2020, 11:11:55 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,710,538 km2(January 11, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 46 k, 11 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 57 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,746 k, 375k (4.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,372 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 314 k more than 2017
- Extent is 112 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 64 k (0.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 85.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 59 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #40 on: January 12, 2020, 03:53:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,822,028 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,822,028    km2      
 163,731    km2   >   2010's average.
-21,906    km2   <   2019
-271,932    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     16    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -11    k   loss
 Central Seas__     7    k   gain
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____    -12    k   loss
 Barents ______    -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 16 k, 16 k LESS than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 163 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 22 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 781 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast developing.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #41 on: January 13, 2020, 04:53:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2020:
     12,813,537 km2, a century increase of 102,999 km2.
     2020 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #42 on: January 13, 2020, 10:47:57 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,813,537 km2(January 12, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 103 k, 60 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,849 k, 435 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,414 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 435 k more than 2017
- Extent is 47 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 3 k (0.0%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 85.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 58 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.24 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.36 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2020, 03:52:27 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,839,921 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,839,921    km2      
 146,598    km2   >   2010's average.
-20,933    km2   <   2019
-289,268    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     18    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -7    k   loss
 Central Seas__     6    k   gain
 Other Seas___     19    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -11    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     7    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______     3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 18 k, 17 k LESS than the 2010's average of 35 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 147 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 21 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 774 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #44 on: January 14, 2020, 04:49:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2020:
     12,835,393 km2, an increase of 21,856 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #45 on: January 14, 2020, 11:40:10 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,835,393 km2(January 13, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 22 k, 10 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,871 k, 425 k (5.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,446 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 478 k more than 2017
- Extent is 31 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 13 k (0.1%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 85.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 57 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.23 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.35 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.9 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #46 on: January 14, 2020, 03:16:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,858,581 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,858,581    km2      
 123,456    km2   >   2010's average.
-18,808    km2   <   2019
-308,967    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     19    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     6    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -14    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______     11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 19 k, 23 k LESS than the 2010's average of 42 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 123 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 19 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 773 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.9 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds are heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
________________________________________________________________________
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #47 on: January 15, 2020, 04:58:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 14th, 2020:
     12,919,142 km2, an increase of 83,749 km2.
     2020 is now 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #48 on: January 15, 2020, 11:15:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,919,142 km2(January 14, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 34 k less more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 50 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,955 k, 459 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,496 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 531 k more than 2017
- Extent is 13 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 21 k (0.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 86.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 56 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.27 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.39 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 03:48:46 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

echoughton

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Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #49 on: January 15, 2020, 12:45:08 PM »
Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!