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Tom_Mazanec

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Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
« on: February 28, 2020, 01:03:41 AM »
be cause:
Here is the thread you requested on the Covid-19 thread.

*

Edited the thread title a bit.

This can be used for all Covid-19 economic consequences.

Kassy
« Last Edit: May 05, 2020, 11:22:58 AM by Neven »
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be cause

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #1 on: February 28, 2020, 03:46:08 AM »
Cheers Tom .

 context .. Tom asked ' will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy ? ' reply 7 COVID-19 back on 25.01.2020 .

. it already seems clear that COVID-19 is even more successful as an economic virus and is exposing every weakness however carefully hidden . That , and it's menace to humanity directly , make a global recession or depression increasingly certain .

just to cheer everyone up I'd probably have called this thread ' The Really Great Depression '  b.c.


« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 09:09:11 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

etienne

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #2 on: February 28, 2020, 09:09:27 PM »
In Luxembourg, we have a government that really tries not to find any case of Coronavirus. To be tested, you need to be sick and to have been in an infected area (Italy, Korea, China...). Just that nowadays infected area are almost everywhere, Belgium is the only border country that doesn't have detected cases, but Germany and France are not considered as "dangerous" right now.

I wonder if this doesn't scare people even more. I had to go shopping and there was almost nobody in the shops. The electronic shop was the only one where I had to wait a minute because somebody else was paying.

We are waiting, doing business ass usual, but wondering where it will come from.

Luxembourg has few cultural events this week-end, I wonder how many people will be there.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2020, 09:14:36 PM »
Dow Jones Industrial Average has plunged another 800 points today, putting the Dow into "correction" territory.  The six-month graph makes me glad I sold some 'fund' stock last week!
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #4 on: February 28, 2020, 11:27:42 PM »
TB:
Ended down 357 points.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 07:23:54 PM »
Why a bear market will lead to a dollar collapse
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/why-a-bear-market-will-lead-to-a-dollar-collapse
Quote
The abolition of meaningful yields has been achieved through a combination of statistical suppression of price inflation and monetary expansion. But this is just the start of it. Imagine for a moment a collapse today akin to the 1929-32 Wall Street crash, followed by an economic slump on a 1930s scale. Freed from apparent restrictions on the expansion of money and having a mandate to do whatever it takes, combined with demands for the financing of soaring government budget deficits the expansion of money will go into hyperdrive – everywhere at the same time.

Not only do we have that problem, but we now have a viral pandemic that has all but shut down the largest manufacturing economy in the world, disrupting the overwhelming majority of supply chains elsewhere. And that assumes the coronavirus is contained to China and that early signs of it turning into a global pandemic turn out to be false. But the signs are that it is becoming a pandemic on the eve of Wall Street crash Mark II, bringing forward and amplifying the economic destruction that always follows a period of credit expansion. The effect of the virus threatens to turn an economic slump, perhaps a once in a century event, into an outright production and consumption collapse.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 07:29:19 PM »
Tom, you might want to listen to this podcast: Bitcoin & Markets

https://overcast.fm/+Rt1ptD5TY
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2020, 08:42:49 PM »
The USA has no room to move.
low interest rates, large budget deficit and a maxed out share market.
Many have been saying for a while a small issue could  cause a recession
Wuflu ain't a small issue it is going to have a major global impact .
I can see the dow hitting a five year low in the next two months .
How is the great orange retard #leader of the free world going to cope with that?

bc You frequently make me laugh .

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 08:50:24 PM »
KiwiGriff:
John Xenakis of Generational Dynamics expects the Dow to go to 2000-3000.
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 09:31:08 PM »
In Luxembourg, we have a government that really tries not to find any case of Coronavirus. To be tested, you need to be sick and to have been in an infected area (Italy, Korea, China...). Just that nowadays infected area are almost everywhere, Belgium is the only border country that doesn't have detected cases, but Germany and France are not considered as "dangerous" right now.

I wonder if this doesn't scare people even more. I had to go shopping and there was almost nobody in the shops. The electronic shop was the only one where I had to wait a minute because somebody else was paying.

We are waiting, doing business ass usual, but wondering where it will come from.

Luxembourg has few cultural events this week-end, I wonder how many people will be there.

When it started in China, in the beginning nobody knew about it, so it could spread. The countries that don't test, they don't know it's there. So it can spread in a way to become the next Wuhan. In Luxemburg they know it's not far off, so they probably become a little more carefull. But there are a few countries for who i fear what's coming.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 10:01:50 PM »
It is easy to tell on this site who the Americans are: the ones who write about the stockmarket :) Noone else cares about where the stockmarket is. Anglo-saxon countries have a deep equity-culture, other countries usually do not. 

(notice how it is always the Dow and the S&P never the DAX, the Nikkei, the Moscow index?)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2020, 10:15:53 PM »
It is easy to tell on this site who the Americans are: the ones who write about the stockmarket :) Noone else cares about where the stockmarket is. Anglo-saxon countries have a deep equity-culture, other countries usually do not. 

(notice how it is always the Dow and the S&P never the DAX, the Nikkei, the Moscow index?)
I’m an American but I was replying to kiwigriff, who I assume lives in NZ?
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oren

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2020, 12:21:12 AM »
It is easy to tell on this site who the Americans are: the ones who write about the stockmarket :) Noone else cares about where the stockmarket is. Anglo-saxon countries have a deep equity-culture, other countries usually do not. 

(notice how it is always the Dow and the S&P never the DAX, the Nikkei, the Moscow index?)
Because of my day job I happen to care a lot about stock market movements, especially the Nikkei...
I am not American, nor Japanese for that matter. I just don't bother to write about it.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2020, 12:32:17 AM »
Yeah the Kiwi gives it away.
I was getting confused with the Griff who sometimes comments on WUWT , the Great White Con and added the Kiwi when someone on Robert Scribbler suggested we should use a name that says were we are from.
The Dow is just one of many indexes they are all showing similar falls.
The market indexes  react a lot quicker than say GDP figures as a metric of economic  performance. The share markets are also driven by emotion so indicate peoples underlying feelings.
We have a long way to go down yet .......
« Last Edit: March 01, 2020, 01:33:17 AM by KiwiGriff »

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2020, 03:13:01 AM »
Just an update of anecdotal evidence from my wife who admins a warehouse for a large retail company in Australia.
They have had no incoming containers from China for ten days.
The supplies in the large warehouse have basically come to a standstill which means the stores will be running out of stock in the coming few weeks..... there is no sign of containers coming into the warehouse in the coming week.
I got bored so I went shopping in the retail store and they look light on stock (I use to manage large format retail stores so I see these things easier than most).
I then walked the competitors and saw similar results.
Australia clearly relies on China a lot for retail stock.
I went to the supermarket and see slight signs of stocks getting low, but nothing drastic there.

Anyway, since my old computer decided to die today, I had to buy a new one (this is coming from my brand spanking new comp). The first one I wanted had no stock, same with the second one and I finally got a stocked item on the fourth attempt.
I felt for the sales person as he was dancing around the supply situation..... just for fun I asked for other computers just to get a gauge on supplies in general and found that over half the computers they sell are out of stock company wide.

While this is anecdotal, I am not surprised.
It also means that there are several companies in the coming months that are going to become bankrupt because of no stock unless something fast happens concerning supply chains.

I am not personally over-stressed about the virus (barring my wife who is extremely susceptible to lung infections) but this supply chain breakdown is a concern and rates as my thing to worry about the most this year.

This year is going to become historically significant.

nanning

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2020, 07:07:26 AM »
I think western governments' reaction to a recession will be even more austerity with deeper cuts. The poor people will get hit hardest whilst being the most vulnerable.
Am I correct in my thinking?

Perhaps the age of reason will get a reboot?
Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?
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Rodius

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2020, 07:17:43 AM »
I think western governments' reaction to a recession will be even more austerity with deeper cuts. The poor people will get hit hardest whilst being the most vulnerable.
Am I correct in my thinking?

Perhaps the age of reason will get a reboot?
Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?

I think you are correct.
In Australia, we will trailblaze those measures and then some as that is what is happening already.

I am almost begging my wife to move to New Zealand asap, but she is a hard cookie to crack. Maybe, if this thing hits hard, she will agree to the move.

I often wonder why people ignore the obvious and hope the obvious wont happen.

El Cid

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2020, 07:48:40 AM »
I think western governments' reaction to a recession will be even more austerity with deeper cuts. The poor people will get hit hardest whilst being the most vulnerable.
Am I correct in my thinking?

Perhaps the age of reason will get a reboot?
Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?

I think you are totally wrong. MMT (Moder Monetary Theory) is coming - this is the Zeitgeist. It means Central Bank financed money distributed directly to the people to keep the economy going. Hong Kong is already doing it:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/02/26/1582705518000/Helicopter-money-is-here/

" Hong Kong permanent residents aged 18 and above will each receive a cash handout of HK$10,000 (US$1,200) in a HK$120 billion (US$15 billion) relief deal rolled out by the government to ease the burden on individuals and companies, while saving jobs.

    Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po confirmed an earlier Post report when he unveiled the payment during his budget speech on Wednesday morning, along with a full guarantee on loans taken out by companies to pay wages and taxes."


 

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2020, 08:01:10 AM »
Re: "Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?"

You will find a great deal of support for that theory among the goldbug literati. (I do not bother to read them.)

That said, i think commodity based money only makes sense for economies tied to that commodity. House of Saud might do well with currency valued to oil price ... but bonesaw guy is far too uneducated to even think about that.

sidd



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Re: Global recession
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2020, 08:17:35 AM »
In the US it is an election year and a slow economy is hard for an incumbant to overcome. I bet we see some stimulas soon because of it.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #20 on: March 01, 2020, 08:23:09 AM »
We do not have enough gold to recouple gold and money. This is the best way to reach the final crash. The problem we might have is that production and growth is wat gives value to our coins, and the coronavirus just stops both. Should we be happy that stock markets reduce available money now that production is slowed? I guess not, but I'm not sure that it makes everything worse. I think it is just a sign of the size of our problems.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #21 on: March 01, 2020, 08:38:50 AM »
People sell their stocks for fiat money in order to ditch volatility.

When fiat becomes volatile is the moment to panic.
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #22 on: March 01, 2020, 09:15:28 AM »
People sell their stocks for fiat money in order to ditch volatility.

When fiat becomes volatile is the moment to panic.

Probably right on both accounts. However, fiat money becoming volatile is a hard concept. Volatile vs what? I guess you mean that MMT/helicopter money will cause inflation ("volatile fiat money"). I think yes, but only on the longer run (3+ years). Inflation has huge inertia. it is hard to stop and it is hard to start...

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #23 on: March 01, 2020, 09:31:29 AM »
Quote
Volatile vs what?

Purchasing power of course.

Yes, MMT would cause inflation, but here lies not the looming danger since people would earn more money, equalizing the inflation.

MMT is a tool that would allow us to do the things we have to do (i.e. transition of the energy sector). But it's not a tool to stabilize volatility.

A world currency would be a tool for the later.

Good thing we have that now.
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #24 on: March 01, 2020, 11:43:28 AM »
Watched The Big Short again today.

Good lord we are not ready for the next financial crisis or recession.

Quote
Some 40% of Americans would struggle to come up with $400 for an unexpected expense.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/20/heres-why-so-many-americans-cant-handle-a-400-unexpected-expense.html
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2020, 12:53:16 PM »
Personally I thought we were in a hyper bubble and if Covid-19 had not popped it in 2020 something else would have in 2021.
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2020, 01:22:17 PM »
I find it somewhat fitting that we're discussing the very same reckless short-termism that's caused the Climate Crisis (Climate won't bother us until 2050 = someone else's problem!) in an entirely different context (Loans won't come due until I'm out of office and/or we've stolen enough money to pay them back = someone else's problem!), and seeing how very similar consequences (the problems are now manifesting, and it's pretty much too late to do something about it) have come about.

Might we be able to see the Climate Crisis as a very big bust in out boom/bust economic cycles?
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2020, 04:47:26 PM »
I just read that El Al, the Israelian  air company, would reduce the number of employees because of the virus.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #28 on: March 01, 2020, 05:11:38 PM »
Note that as Israel goes to the polls tomorrow, El Al's move is designed to pressure the government for a handout of big money.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #29 on: March 01, 2020, 05:27:35 PM »
Frankfurt airport, a hub for international travel, deals with the huge drop in business as airlines cancel flights.  Suppliers as well as airport workers will feel the effects.

Frankfurt airport operator announces cost cuts over coronavirus
Quote
BERLIN, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Germany’s airport operator Fraport is planning cost cuts, including a hiring freeze, as the coronavirus outbreak is taking a heavy toll on aviation worldwide, it said on Thursday.

“Currently, all major costs are being reviewed closely,” Fraport said in a statement, adding that it was still too early to predict the duration and extent of flight cancellations and the decline in traffic volumes.

Fraport is the operator of Frankfurt airport, Germany’s largest hub.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-health-fraport/frankfurt-airport-operator-announces-cost-cuts-over-coronavirus-idUKFWN2AR0CO
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #30 on: March 01, 2020, 10:01:06 PM »
Might we be able to see the Climate Crisis as a very big bust in out boom/bust economic cycles?

Sort of but it is a very unfair one. Usually it is ´just money´ although that can be grossly unfair too.

If we look 50 years ahead there is climate change wrecking havoc while many places suffer soil and/or aquifer depletion.

Even rather modest outlooks paint a picture of a world you would not want to live in but no one wants to do anything about it because it costs voters and donations or someone will fix it in 10 years or so.

And then times up.

Then ofc this thing is bigger. So many creatures dying. Whole landscapes and habitats destroyed.

At least we have the pictures of some of them...
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #31 on: March 02, 2020, 01:28:45 AM »
All these companies that pledged net zero emissions over the last few months just got a 10-20% haircut and are still bleeding.  So yes the stock market does matter.  Boards report to their investors which also expect dividends.  Investing in carbon capture and storage is going to be unimaginable now for some.

Baby boomers are past the age of adding to their retirement accounts.  Withdrawing money to meet bills at that same time it’s tanking just adds to the pain.  At best you can hope for a V shape recovery.

How many companies are over leveraged with corporate debt?  In the U.S. we just wasted billions on deficit spending so corporations could do stock buybacks with 2017’s corporate tax cut. Gone just like that. 

The everything bubble just popped and the little priority global warming acquired the last few years is going to take a back seat.  We’re just getting started with this mess.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #32 on: March 02, 2020, 03:33:09 AM »
The impact on AGW is dependent on the extent and time frame .
Expect a spike in global temperatures as aerosols fall due to less air travel, sea freight and energy use. This  is due the removal of  aerosol's masking our real effect on global temperatures.
An economic down turn will result in less emissions.  Even if they later return to previous levels it still represents a delay in using up the available carbon budget.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #33 on: March 02, 2020, 06:12:41 AM »
^^
Ramen!!


Temps will spike in the coming months unless the world's economy makes a remarkable recovery.

This is the first example we've faced of the paradox where burning fewer fossil fuels releases fewer aerosols which results in higher temperatures. A similar effect occurred when the US restricted it's airspace after 9/11, jet trails were curtailed and temperatures increased by ~20C within days.
This effect will be far more widespread & will be much longer lasting.


With less aerosol masking, the arctic could experience additional ice loss. Enhanced warming of sub-arctic permafrost will ensure additional methane release, possibly enough additional CH4 to make up for the reduction of AGW emissions. The possibility of a BOE will be greatly enhanced.


Terry

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #34 on: March 02, 2020, 07:34:24 AM »
A similar effect occurred when the US restricted it's airspace after 9/11, jet trails were curtailed and temperatures increased by ~20C within days.

Can't find the study but as I remember the effect was not 2 C but 0,2-0,3C. Hard to exactly measure though and involved some guesstimates

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #35 on: March 02, 2020, 08:37:30 AM »
The impact on AGW is dependent on the extent and time frame .
Expect a spike in global temperatures as aerosols fall due to less air travel, sea freight and energy use. This  is due the removal of  aerosol's masking our real effect on global temperatures.
An economic down turn will result in less emissions.  Even if they later return to previous levels it still represents a delay in using up the available carbon budget.

Don’t step over a dollar to pick up a quarter.  The drop in emissions will give us a few extra months to the carbon budget but the economic impacts will be much worse in long term efforts to fight AGW.  Governments and corporations will now have to delay investments, transitions, priorities because of the massive hit.  I would gladly trade for the ~2GtCo2 in the Carbon budget from 2008-2010 rather than the delay that financial crisis caused.  The right wing governments emerging worldwide the last 5 years is a symptom.

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #36 on: March 02, 2020, 01:24:20 PM »
A similar effect occurred when the US restricted it's airspace after 9/11, jet trails were curtailed and temperatures increased by ~20C within days.

Can't find the study but as I remember the effect was not 2 C but 0,2-0,3C. Hard to exactly measure though and involved some guesstimates
You memory may well be more accurate than mine.  ;)
The effect of the sudden loss of aerosol masking however shouldn't be minimized.


Whatever is gained by the sudden loss of GHG emissions will almost certainly by undone in the short term by the equally sudden loss of masking aerosols. My fear is that a temperature spike will do enough damage to rainforests and other natural sinks that, combined with additional gasses released from melted permafrost, it will speed us toward our immutable date with climatic catastrophe.


That this will occur while the world's trade is in disarray will preclude many nations from investing in infrastructure that might otherwise have mitigated some of the effects of AGW. The immediate costs associated with Covid-19 will drain emergency funds leaving little for fires, floods or other disasters attributable to the sudden spike in temperature.
Terry

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #37 on: March 02, 2020, 01:59:48 PM »
... including the billions of locusts breeding across Africa, Asia and the Middle East at the moment .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Re: Global recession
« Reply #38 on: March 03, 2020, 07:01:19 PM »
From the coronavirus thread:

”The Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut Tuesday of half a percentage point in response to the growing economic threat from the novel coronavirus.
The move was the first such cut since December 2008, during the financial crisis.”

Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat coronavirus slowdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-to-combat-coronavirus-slowdown.html

"Central banks are pulling out a playbook that was designed to deal with financial problems and not to deal with public health problems. So I really think they're like a fish out of the water here. They have no idea how to contain or even to understand what may be about to happen in the public health area or the U.S. economy's response to that."
Fed is a 'fish out of the water' in fight against coronavirus, former Morgan Stanley chief economist says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-is-a-fish-out-of-the-water-in-fight-against-coronavirus-former-morgan-stanley-chief-economist-says.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #39 on: March 03, 2020, 10:19:43 PM »
Sorry, this is not “global.”  Yet.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020. Dow closed down 790.32 points, to 25,913.00
Quote
Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) 3/3/20, 11:08 AM
I thought rate cuts were supposed to make markets go higher WTF
https://twitter.com/rampcapitalllc/status/1234873248996904962

—-
Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) 3/3/20, 2:33 PM
Are the daily 1,000 point moves here to stay?
https://twitter.com/rampcapitalllc/status/1234924813757620225
First graph below.

Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC)3/3/20, 2:49 PM
I'd like to turn myself in. I've committed a chart crime.
https://twitter.com/rampcapitalllc/status/1234928786262634498
Second graph below.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2020, 12:18:44 AM »
Next Economic Downturn May Last Forever And A Day
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/03/next-economic-downturn-may-last-forever.html
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Based on how Japan has fared over the last several decades it is difficult to see the green shoots of a global economic spring forth as a result of lower interest rates. In fact, the next economic downturn will likely envelope the planet and may last forever and a day. This is because central bank intervention and manipulation often carries with it negative unintended consequences. People often forget how lucky Japan has been during its trying times to be located next to China. Because of China's years of booming growth, Japan has been able to mitigate much of the pain that occurred when its economic bubble burst in 1992.

In the decades since, Japan's stock market has never again come near the lofty peak it hit back then. During the years after Japan's fall from grace, it was able to soften the impact of its economic problems by strengthening ties with rapidly growing China which needed help in developing its export-driven economy. Today many people feel the global economy is in a bubble eerily similar to the one experienced by Japan before its implosion. The question is not whether the market and economy are about to undergo a massive reset but when. Concern is also growing as to how deep, painful, and long the next downturn will last.
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be cause

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #41 on: March 04, 2020, 02:09:37 AM »
Japan's bubble burst on 01.01.1990 .. I had spent a long time looking for a weakness so I remember it well .. by 1992 the Nikkei was already 10,000 points down from it's peak .. I guess Bruce is too young to remember and just googled .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

be cause

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #42 on: March 04, 2020, 02:22:32 AM »
back to the present . On Monday the Dow defied gravity .. the gravity of the situation did not justify a record rise .. it just showed how far money and reality are apart .
  Tuesday's obviously panicky cut in interest rates was seen as such . A virus does not care , but Trump is not aware . As American's wake up to their leader's incompetence and the rate of COVID-19's spread , it is unlikely that any market recovery will have stamina . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #43 on: March 04, 2020, 01:00:35 PM »
Global Recession Now Baked in the Cake
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/global-recession-now-baked-in-the-cake-nDwvDXbJk0uc8TeSMMdSIQ
Quote
Six Key Points

Global Manufacturing PMI slumps to 47.2
Survey-record contraction in China; rest of the world stagnates on average
Global trade falls at fastest pace since April 2009
Global Manufacturing Decline Steepest Since 2009
Manufacturing employment declined for the third successive month in February, with the rate of job losses the fastest since August 2009.
Purchasing activity declined to the greatest extent in the series history (which started in October 2009).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #44 on: March 04, 2020, 05:32:06 PM »
Quote
*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) 3/3/20, 1:42 PM
U. S. TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 1% FOR FIRST TIME
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1234912117423136768
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #45 on: March 04, 2020, 06:20:13 PM »
Via CNN:
Quote
According to the [Brookings Institutution] study, global GDP would contract by over $9 trillion in case the global pandemic leads to a “more serious outbreak similar to the Spanish [sic*] flu.”

In either case, the [American, I presume] economy and the stock market have a bleak outlook this year. It’s likely that no amount or quantity of [Federal Reserve] rate cuts will stop the Dow Jones from plunging into a bear market.

With the possibility of "S type" Covid-19 dominating (instead of "L type"), per this Vox_mundi post, maybe the Covid-19 pandemic won't be "similar to the [1918 flu pandemic]."
__________
 

* - The "Spanish Flu" name is a misnomer and should be called "the 1918 flu pandemic" or something.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #46 on: March 04, 2020, 06:42:31 PM »
Quote from: Tor Bejnar
With the possibility of "S type" Covid-19 dominating (instead of "L type"), per this Vox_mundi post, maybe the Covid-19 pandemic won't be "similar to the [1918 flu pandemic]."

On the other hand, it took 1 month to mutate into 2 varieties in a population of ~ 500,000 infected.

Imagine, how many mutations could happen in the next 12 months in a billion bodies.

Also, will 1 vaccine work on both variants?
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #47 on: March 04, 2020, 11:34:14 PM »
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/next-comes-the-turbulent-twenties/
Quote
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.
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Rodius

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #48 on: March 05, 2020, 03:34:19 AM »
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/next-comes-the-turbulent-twenties/
Quote
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.

I have two young sons, both of which get a fairly blunt assessment from me concerning climate change so there are few illusions in our family.
While I dont disagree with the above assessment, I wonder how much the youth of today are going to tolerate the upcoming bullshit before they lose their shit?

People over 60 truly need to suck it up and those who are retiring need to stop feeling so entitled to everything and then some just because they worked for it..... I find that people over 60 tend to sit on the entitle pedestal without realizing just how lucky they have been to be in the sweet spot for taking advantage of everything without having to deal with the consequences.

I wish with all my heart that Western Peoples would act better. I spent 2 years living in a village in Samoa... the elders were cared for by the youth. The elders worked hard in their time, supported community and village, and they dont walk around feeling like the world owes them. They understand that the village/community needs to be strong on all levels in order for the whole system to remain strong and that the long term decision making sits on their shoulders and they do exactly that by planning ahead with their grandkids in mind.

Why arent we doing this on a global scale?
Why are our elders retiring and hoarding at the expense of the youth?

nanning

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Re: Global recession
« Reply #49 on: March 05, 2020, 06:16:07 AM »
Great framing, example and reasoning in my view Rodius, thank you. Beautiful.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning S. Poelsma
Prisons in your head!