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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #350 on: February 08, 2014, 12:50:53 PM »
Hi Werther!
I think we have to look to the spring migration north of the polar Jet for any chance of respite here in the UK?

As it drifts north over the coming months it'll drag the storm tracks with it leaving us to the south with less rainfall/wind impacts and the prospect of Azores or European highs drifting in to settle us down ?

Should we not see any shift in that high over N. Pacific then I worry about the upcoming tornado season in the U.S.? Any more outbreaks will increasingly meet with airs coming up from the Gulf and spawn some very nasty weather ( possibly further north than is normal if the cold is intense?)

The other 'wonder' I'm having is whether any nino turns 'super'? The last 2 Supers were 15 years apart and , as a recent paper noted, we are to expect the period between such events to alter from the current 20 year spacing to one of only 10 years? 16 years since 98' and forecasts now shifting toward a Nino forming over summer?

The 9 month Nino of 2010 saw a huge volume drop over the Arctic ocean so what will a 'normal' 18 month Nino do to both 2014 and 2015's melt figures? 2007 saw our perfect melt storm. we found then that they were coming around every 10 to 20 years with the two before 07' only having ten years between them.

Two Nino influenced years and then a return of the 'perfect melt storm synoptic right on their heels? 2017 melt out guys?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #351 on: February 08, 2014, 11:57:44 PM »
Interesting, Grey-Wolf...
I have all that sort of things running around my mind. Without content to stave. Yet. I'm expecting the stored energy in the deeper ocean layers to come up and haunt us. It could be in the form of an old-fashioned but strong El Nino. It could be an altered form too...
« Last Edit: February 09, 2014, 10:03:11 PM by werther »

RaenorShine

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #352 on: February 09, 2014, 12:41:22 PM »
The UK Met Office is increasingly convinced the current conveyor belt of storms the UK are receiving (and other weird NH weather) are linked to climate change

Quote
Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms.

"But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #353 on: February 09, 2014, 12:56:22 PM »
The UK Met Office is increasingly convinced the current conveyor belt of storms the UK are receiving (and other weird NH weather) are linked to climate change

Quote
Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms.

"But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625

Well that will set the domestic Feline among the feral rock doves!!!

The more folk are forced to look at the teleconnections between events the better their view of what is happening (IMHO). The link between ocean temps, ice losses, Jet streams, moisture content of the air etc,etc has to be a good thing? It will drive the misleaders crazy though!
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #355 on: February 09, 2014, 11:00:49 PM »
The Met Office report behind Dr Slingo's comments is here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf

My blog post on it is here:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/met-office-chief-evidence-suggests.html

Seems they're shifting to the common sense side of the fence now... after a tendency of dogmatically labelling UK extreme weather as "just weather" and refusing to even speculate on if the jet stream changes might, in fact, be a contributing factor.

Just wait for it, they'll be ceding their sea ice position next...

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter

Quote
Slingo also dismissed fears that the Arctic could be entirely free of sea ice in summer as soon as 2015. Between 2025 and 2030 would be the earliest date she would consider it possible, she said, and the Met Office's latest models suggested 2040-60 as most likely. "Our expectation is certainly not in the next few years as you've heard from some evidence," she said.

I'm still with Wadhams, Duarte, Maslowski, etc here of course...

ChrisReynolds

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #356 on: February 10, 2014, 07:55:56 AM »
The Met Office are very conservative, when the evidence gets strong enough, they'll shift. And as the process will proceed - they definitely will shift.

Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #357 on: February 10, 2014, 04:11:12 PM »
after three winters with quite much snow and colder temperatures than for about 20 years, southern finland might again return to the new normal. we had some 3.5 weeks of cold and the current view on the nearby river looks like this:


here's where we played hockey after school pretty exactly 36 years ago (in fairness, this is not the first winter of no skating after school in winter):
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #358 on: February 14, 2014, 05:34:28 AM »

JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #359 on: February 14, 2014, 04:41:34 PM »
And while the Eastern US and Great Britain are having wet cold winters Brazil is getting cooked.

Record Brazil heat pressures crops, energy prices – Northeast is in worst drought in at least 50 years, hundreds of thousands of cattle have died

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #360 on: February 14, 2014, 06:03:45 PM »
And while the Eastern US and Great Britain are having wet cold winters Brazil is getting cooked.

Record Brazil heat pressures crops, energy prices – Northeast is in worst drought in at least 50 years, hundreds of thousands of cattle have died

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/

This is one of the reasons I think ag failure prior to ~2050. More and more extremes in more and more places will continue to assault our ability to produce food. I hope I'm wrong.

JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #361 on: February 14, 2014, 08:19:07 PM »
ritter

Prior to 2050 is certainly possible.  All it takes is several things going really wrong at the same time in critical locations to put us on the edge.

If one looks out about 20 years and the water supply problems coming are then kicking in in India, China and the American Midwest (and maybe the Central Valley of CA) all it would take is the right combination of simultaneous crop failures in a couple of the other main grain growing regions and ....
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #362 on: February 21, 2014, 07:40:41 PM »
Thunder snow, torrential rain then heavy freeze. All from 9 PM. & 10:30 PM between Hamilton and Cambridge in Southwestern Ontario.
This morning everything is back to 'normal' with strong gusts of very cold wind. Old timers are claiming that this winter is the coldest and snowiest that they recall. The Grand River has frozen over for only the second time in the past 10 years.
The lightning display was extreme and a transformer was blown off a power pole as I awaited a light change on the drive home. I'd snowshoed across the river earlier in the week, not sure I'd trust the ice now.
Terry

werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #363 on: February 26, 2014, 08:59:23 AM »
I’ve routinely checked the graphs and some weather stuff, like ECMWF, CPC.

The likely prognosis for the 10-day range is suggesting an early date for the sea ice maximum. Having been under attack in waves all winter, the Polar Vortex seems prone to receive a final blow next week.
At the dawn of spring, North America will be presented with the last swath of Arctic winter cold. Over Siberia a large low level high pressure zone will emerge.
In between, under the split, the Pole will be accessible for a strong Southern influx of spring warmth.

It is tempting to correlate all of this to the developing phase change in the Pacific.

When this pans out together, we can be almost certain to witness a very interesting Northern Hemisphere summertime. It is very unlikely the pattern over the Arctic will result in another cold spring. I doubt if there’s much sense in making comparisons to earlier years. This system is progressively out of balance.

Thanks for being patient with me being superficially alarmed. I have not much priority for more elaboration or selection of graphs/analysis. I’m busy with local elections for our green party. Couldn’t be a better time to do that.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #364 on: February 26, 2014, 03:28:02 PM »
If I were more informed (and I'm not) and were a betting man (also no) I would bet we are going to hit a new record minimum this melt season.

Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #365 on: February 26, 2014, 04:14:36 PM »
I think that would be a reasonable bet.  The long term trend is your friend....and it says less ice in future years.  And then there is that "small issue" of physics being on your side:)

I think we're heading to a September 2016 "mostly iceless" Arctic with the exception of maybe a couple hundred mile width that will stretch along the Canadian Archipelago to the north/northeastern coast of Greenland.

 
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #366 on: February 26, 2014, 06:14:36 PM »
I think that would be a reasonable bet.  The long term trend is your friend....and it says less ice in future years.  And then there is that "small issue" of physics being on your side:)

I think we're heading to a September 2016 "mostly iceless" Arctic with the exception of maybe a couple hundred mile width that will stretch along the Canadian Archipelago to the north/northeastern coast of Greenland.

If we do hit a new record minimum, it will be a lot more ice than that.

Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #367 on: February 26, 2014, 07:33:56 PM »
If we do hit a new record minimum, it will be a lot more ice than that.

For this year........I totally agree.   
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #368 on: February 28, 2014, 03:17:40 AM »
I decided to look at drought globally with the craziness in weather and jet streams etc. There is major drought for extended periods in areas such as Australia and Brazil, as commented above. However there are more major areas in drought not being discussed.

For example, Istanbul, Turkey has less than a 100 days water supply - and they are heading into spring and summer with bone dry conditions for agriculture. Singapore is rationing, as are parts of Malaysia.

I have more over in my blog using the NCDC Global Drought Portal to illustrate.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #369 on: March 02, 2014, 01:47:04 PM »
An interesting report from the JMA featured on the WMO website, about the pattern of extreme weather experienced over the first 6 weeks of 2014.
 
 
Parts of the world have witnessed a series of extreme weather conditions in the first six weeks of 2014, continuing a pattern that was set in December 2013.
Much of the United States of America has experienced cold waves and major winter storms, whilst California remains gripped by drought.
The United Kingdom has seen its wettest December-January period on record, with severe, widespread and prolonged flooding. A combination of strong winds, storms and high tides caused damage and flooding in other coastal areas of Europe. There has been unusually heavy snowfall in the southern Alps.
Monthly mean temperatures were extremely high from eastern Mongolia to eastern China.
In the Southern hemisphere, Australia, Argentina and Brazil  experienced extended heatwaves.
Throughout this period, national meteorological and hydrological services provided forecasts and regularly-updated warnings.

 
 
The full report is here http://www.wmo.int/p...oftheworld.html

pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #370 on: March 19, 2014, 12:21:44 AM »
The capital of Eritrea in the horn of Africa hit by freak hailstorm.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-city-flooded-ice-rain-article-1.1721933

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #371 on: March 19, 2014, 01:28:53 AM »

prometheus

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #372 on: March 19, 2014, 06:41:33 AM »
The weather where I live (Colorado, USA) has really weirded since early 2012. That's still too short a time period to say anything about what the future may hold, but long term residents have frequently commented that the climate here has shifted noticeably in the past 20 years. The rains used to come, quite predictably, in late-summer afternoon bursts that lasted about 2 hours. Five to seven days a week. Now they don't come at all for long stretches and when they do they hang around for days. Here's a comment I made in a journal from 9 April, 2012:

"So the weather all March has been truly fantastic! Too much so. It's pretty worrisome actually. As much fun as it is to go outside in this weather it's not supposed to be this warm yet."

I noticed flowers blooming, tree leaf buds coming out, and insects arriving that weren't supposed to be around for another few weeks. Not long after that, my area had some of the worst wildfires in our state's history, and even president Obama came out to check it out. And I don't have to bring up on this forum what the arctic sea ice did that year.
The next year the fires were even worse, and Boulder, which is only about a 70 minute drive from here, had some pretty incredible floods. I've long been concerned about the long-term effects of climate change, but 2012 was when I really woke up and started paying attention.

(off-topic: I'm probably missing something really obvious, but "who is white and king of the ice"?  :-[)

icefest

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #373 on: March 19, 2014, 07:43:26 AM »
(off-topic: I'm probably missing something really obvious, but "who is white and king of the ice"?  :-[)

It's not Ymir.

I think the issue here in Australia is the mindset that a La Nina year is the 'normal' weather.
We've just had a couple of years with above average rainfalls and if this El Nino comes like `97 then expect much more news about fires from down here.
 
Open other end.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #374 on: March 19, 2014, 11:43:22 AM »
"who is white and king of the ice"?  :-[)

I figured it was Kung Bore (AKA Jack Frost) http://bokstavligt.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/inte-overens-tydligen.html

Getting back to British weird weather, the latest from moi, the Met Office and the NOAA:

http://econnexus.org/stormy-winter-weather-moves-south/
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JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #375 on: April 14, 2014, 04:55:57 PM »
Quote
Global warming forcing Mongolian nomads to change lifestyles

ULAN BATOR--Men on horseback chase sheep and goats over the snow-covered land in winter in the Mongolian plains, where temperatures can drop to minus 30 degrees.

The strong wind that blows over the plains takes its toll on man and animals. Taking an even bigger toll on the traditional way of life of the nomads is global warming.

For those living in northern latitudes with harsh winters, global warming might be considered a blessing if it leads to milder weather. However, the experience in recent years of nomads in Mongolia shows that even a rise of a few degrees can have devastating effects not only on the ecosystem, but on an entire society.
....

Ironically, it is not the warmer winters that have hurt nomad families, but climate change in the summer. Such change has led to a weakening of livestock that forms the primary means of livelihood for many nomads.

If sufficient grass does not grow in summer, livestock will be unable to accumulate enough nutrition to sustain them through the country's harsh winter. That has led in recent years to large-scale livestock deaths because the animals are unable to adapt to even minor temperature or snowfall changes during the winter.
....

NOMADS MOVE TO ULAN BATOR



Today, surrounding the more modern architecture of Ulan Bator is a web of yurts, the traditional collapsible Mongolian tent used by nomads.

The large amount of coal that is used for cooking and heating produces columns of black smoke. That is one reason the World Bank has described Mongolia's capital as one of the cities with the worst air pollution in the world, exceeding even the frightening levels found in China.

Of a total Mongolian population of about 2.9 million, about half live in Ulan Bator.
...

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/sci_tech/environment/AJ201404020002
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #376 on: April 22, 2014, 08:33:20 PM »
The Washington, DC (US) Capital Weather Gang compares their 2013/2014 winter outlook forecast with what really happened. 
 :-[  "This winter was its own unique animal."   :-[
Yet another instance of "the usual meteorological rules no longer apply."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/21/grading-our-2013-14-winter-outlook/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #377 on: April 24, 2014, 01:59:25 AM »
A result of the cold jet stream trough / "polar vortex" that repeatedly hit the mid-west and eastern US this winter:

"Environment Canada’s Great Lakes ice dataset, which extends back to 1980-81, shows the current ice extent at a chart-topping 32.8 percent as of April 22.  The year with the next greatest ice extent on this date, 1996, had about half as much ice – or 16.49 percent coverage.  The average Great Lakes ice cover right now is 2.2 percent.  There is roughly 16 times more ice than normal right now!"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/23/great-lakes-covered-in-record-shattering-amount-of-ice-this-late-in-spring/
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #378 on: April 24, 2014, 03:25:16 PM »
We have had a front dropping huge amounts of rain across the midsection of the  U.S. for  the past 3 days. It refuses to move east. In Chicago, they have been predicting rain for the past two days but keep pushing it back. Normally these kinds of fronts would have moved into the Atlantic by now.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar

What does the jet stream look like?

opensheart

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #379 on: April 24, 2014, 03:41:42 PM »
Here is a site for looking at the jet stream over time.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #380 on: April 24, 2014, 07:19:24 PM »
National weather service has now moved any chance of rain in Chicago out to Sunday.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/chicago-il/60608/daily-weather-forecast/348308

This is despite there being a front that is dumping large amounts of rain just west of Chicago. If this forecast holds, it would mean this front will have remained stationary for nearly 6 days.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #381 on: April 25, 2014, 07:22:28 PM »
SH
New York meteorologist Eric Holthaus warns of blocking pattern in Northeast US next week.  With map:

@nymetrowx: Textbook Omega Block develops next week with our area between two cutoff lows. Unsettled weather likely. http://t.co/0KHnabjEhe
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Laurent

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #383 on: April 29, 2014, 04:36:49 PM »
Just outside Acapulco, storms and flooding have wiped out seaside tourist shops, and villages that have stood since the 16th century.  The Mexican government does acknowledge the need to address climate change.

http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-04-28/should-mexicans-acapulco-stay-and-fight-climate-change-or-give-and-leave
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #384 on: April 29, 2014, 05:46:26 PM »
Multi-day, severe tornado outbreakS (!) currently thrashing the southeastern US.


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-tornado-outbreak/alabama-mississippi-brace-2nd-hit-tornado-toll-reaches-28-n92111

Two huge low pressure areas are cut off from the jet stream, and blocked by a high pressure area, preventing the severe weather from moving.
"Textbook Omega Block between two cutoff lows. Unsettled weather likely."
https://mobile.twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/459683171559157760/photo/1

Two swirling low pressure centers, tornado-producing thunderstorms in between. #gifanimation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

”This is the most electrically prolific set of t'storms I have ever seen in my career. Nearly 70,000 strikes per hour last I checked. #severe”

Unbelievable! - 8 tornado warnings right now all in close proximity along with a few having debris balls! #alwx #mswx
https://mobile.twitter.com/1ChrisNelson/status/460955430877814784/photo/1

Every major tornado today fell in the high risk area & PDS watch. Great job by the SPC. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdam/status/460947554994106368/photo/1

This article includes what ensemble models suggest could occur this week, based on what similar conditions in the past have generated (may take a moment for images to load):
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/27/major_tornado_outbreak_expected_in_next_few_days.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #385 on: April 29, 2014, 06:14:18 PM »
You may be able to watch live coverage of the US tornado outbreak here:
(They pause the feed during commercial breaks.)

https://www.youtube.com/embed/e-XfPT8Ppcc
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Sigmetnow

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #387 on: April 30, 2014, 01:22:13 PM »
The storm system continues to pummel the south:

"More than 24 inches of rain fell in a 26-hour period in Pensacola, Fla. according to one rain gauge, washing away bridges and closing mile after mile of highways across the region, leaving hundreds of drivers stranded for hours.

"Six thousands lightning strikes were recorded in the area in just 15 minutes.

"In Alabama, much of downtown Mobile was flooded and a reverse 911 was sent to residents at Fish River, near Silverhill, where water levels were at their highest for 60 years.”

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-tornado-outbreak/life-threatening-flooding-submerges-pensacola-florida-n93201
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #388 on: April 30, 2014, 08:30:28 PM »
This is from the Capital Weather Gang (Washington, DC) on the southern storm.  They are not ones to use hyperbole lightly.

"Freak “S” shaped storm unleashes biblical rain in Pensacola, Mobile"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/30/freak-s-shaped-storm-unleashes-biblical-rain-in-pensacola-mobile/
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #389 on: May 01, 2014, 05:52:09 AM »
Meanwhile....on the west coast of the US.....some heat records fell in Oregon.

Newport, on the Oregon coast, was 86 degrees F which set a record for the month of April.  Astoria (also on the coast) was 83 which beat the old record of 75.

Here is the link to the article.   It is also interesting to look at 3 cities that DIDN'T set new record highs for April 30th.  Portland, Hood River and Hillsboro's record high temperatures for April 30th were all set in 1998............yes.......THAT 1998......when the last large El Nino hit.

All the OLD record highs were set SINCE 1998....with the exception of Newport.   
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Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #390 on: May 04, 2014, 03:57:12 PM »
this is starting to be funny... starting from october 2013 I could have taken a nearly similar image from my window out to the street each month. Temperature 3 degrees celsius, overcast, rain with mixed snowflurries. We had a month of proper winter and now there's been a total of some 2½weeks of spring-like weather but today the eternal autumn is back again. About the only things separating this from october is way more light and some trees that have started to bud leaves, so I guess it's spring.  :P
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #391 on: May 04, 2014, 08:42:39 PM »
The following reference discusses a growing trend, where African easterly waves (AEWs) may have an increasing impact on the Atlantic basin climate, with increasing global warming; which among other things will like increase hurricane damage in this area:

Christopher Bryan Skinnera and Noah S. Diffenbaugh (2014), "Projected changes in African easterly wave intensity and track in response to greenhouse forcing", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1319597111

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/04/23/1319597111

"Abstract
Synoptic-scale African easterly waves (AEWs) impact weather throughout the greater Atlantic basin. Over the African continent, AEWs are instrumental in initiating and organizing precipitation in the drought-vulnerable Sahel region. AEWs also serve as the precursors to the most intense Atlantic hurricanes, and contribute to the global transport of Saharan dust. Given the relevance of AEWs for the climate of the greater Atlantic basin, we investigate the response of AEWs to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Using an ensemble of general circulation models, we find a robust increase in the strength of the winds associated with AEWs along the Intertropical Front in West Africa by the late 21st century of the representative concentration pathway 8.5. AEW energy increases directly due to an increase in baroclinicity associated with an enhanced meridional temperature gradient between the Sahara and Guinea Coast. Further, the pattern of low-level warming supports AEW development by enhancing monsoon flow, resulting in greater convergence and uplift along the Intertropical Front. These changes in energetics result in robust increases in the occurrence of conditions that currently produce AEWs. Given relationships observed in the current climate, such changes in the location of AEW tracks and the magnitude of AEW winds carry implications for the relationship between AEWs and precipitation in the Sahel, the mobilization of Saharan dust, and the likelihood of cyclogenesis in the Atlantic. Our results therefore suggest that changes in AEW characteristics could play a critical role in shaping the response of Atlantic basin climate to future increases in greenhouse gas concentrations."
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #392 on: May 06, 2014, 02:07:48 PM »
Wasn't sure where to post this so I'll put it here. There is more evidence that fracking is causing earthquakes.

http://local.msn.com/rare-earthquake-warning-issued-for-oklahoma

While this may seem like weak evidence, all fracking was halted in the areas near the New Madrid fault several years ago and they have not restarted. The New Marid zone had four of the largest North American earthquakes in recorded history, with moment magnitudes estimated to be as large as 8.0, all occurring within a three-month period between December 1811 and February 1812.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #393 on: May 06, 2014, 06:26:37 PM »
The following linked reference may not exactly be weird weather, but it indicates that if we continue as we have been climate change could make ozone air pollution in the USA 70% worse than it currently is by 2050:


Pfister, G. G., S. Walters, J.-F. Lamarque, J. Fast, M. C. Barth, J. Wong, J. Done, G. Holland, and C. L. Bruyère (2014), Projections of future summertime ozone over the U.S., J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD020932

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020932/abstract

Abstract: "We use a regional coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution under the A2 climate and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 anthropogenic precursor emission scenarios. Predicted changes in regional climate and globally enhanced ozone are estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S.; the 95th percentile for daily 8 h maximum surface ozone increases from 79 ppb to 87 ppb. The analysis suggests that changes in meteorological drivers likely will add to increasing ozone, but the simulations do not allow separating meteorological feedbacks from that due to enhanced global ozone. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks; if implemented as in RCP8.5, the 95th percentile for surface ozone is reduced to 55 ppb. A comparison of regional to global model projections shows that the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations. On average, both the global and the regional model predict similar future changes but reveal pronounced differences in urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of the considered global model. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality projections and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in policy making. It also illustrates the need for high-resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #394 on: May 06, 2014, 08:27:31 PM »
Wasn't sure where to post this so I'll put it here. There is more evidence that fracking is causing earthquakes.

http://local.msn.com/rare-earthquake-warning-issued-for-oklahoma

While this may seem like weak evidence, all fracking was halted in the areas near the New Madrid fault several years ago and they have not restarted. The New Marid zone had four of the largest North American earthquakes in recorded history, with moment magnitudes estimated to be as large as 8.0, all occurring within a three-month period between December 1811 and February 1812.
The evidence is mounting:
Quote
Geologists in Ohio have for the first time linked earthquakes in a geologic formation deep under the Appalachians to hydraulic fracturing, leading the state to issue new permit conditions... in certain areas that are among the nation's strictest.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/4/12/fracking-linked-toearthquakesohiouticashale.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #395 on: May 10, 2014, 02:33:04 AM »
It snowed three weeks ago in Wichita, Kansas.  Last Sunday, it hit 102°F.  The heat wave continued this week.
Quote
It’s not just the heat bringing misery to the state. If Wichita doesn’t see a little over a third of an inch of rain Thursday, it will break the record for driest start of the year set by the Dust Bowl year of 1936, becoming the driest year since records began in 1888.
Crop losses in the state are leading to disaster declarations.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/08/3435565/kansas-heat-wave/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #396 on: May 14, 2014, 02:45:27 AM »
Map of temperature anomalies in Siberia again shows a region more than 8°C above normal for April!
http://t.co/qYzK5bzIEY

And April was globally the second warmest on record.
http://mashable.com/2014/05/13/nasa-2nd-warmest-april/
« Last Edit: May 14, 2014, 03:03:18 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #397 on: May 14, 2014, 12:37:22 PM »
Anomalous heat moves into Moscow in about 5 days from now......so it looks like western Russia is going to get hit with the heat hammer as well.
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Milret2

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #398 on: May 14, 2014, 11:48:48 PM »
Here is an interesting article I found on the internet about effects of ice and glacial melting. I wonder what effects might be triggered elsewhere besides changes in the poles.
http://www.rdmag.com/news/2014/05/ice-loss-moves-earth-250-miles-beneath-our-feet

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #399 on: May 18, 2014, 11:50:33 AM »
Heavy flooding in parts of Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia two days ago. When bridges collide:

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