Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

[Theta]

Robert Scribbler says that Frank will reach a low of 920 hPa before running into Iceland. While the attached Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map shows the central pressure is currently 941 hPa.

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/

Extract: "The impacts of this storm, which the UK Met Office is now calling Frank, could well be tremendous. Cumbria in Northern England may be set to experience yet another ‘worst flood on record’ — one of three occurring just this month. And the 920 mb range central low of this sprawling system is forecast to rip through the heart of Iceland itself. But the more visible risk of damages to England and Iceland may well pale in comparison to the quiet, yet drastic impacts taking place in the far north.

There, over the Arctic sea ice today, the rains began in winter time.

As the first front of warm air proceeded over the ice pack to the north of Svalbard, the rains fell through 35-40 degree (F) air temperatures. It splattered upon Arctic Ocean ice that rarely even sees rain during summer-time. Its soft pitter-patter a whisper that may well be the sound to mark the end of a geological age.

For we just don’t see rain over Arctic sea ice north of Greenland during Winter time. Or we used to not. But the warmth that liquid water falling through the black of what should be a bone-cold polar night represents something ominous.

Constant storms globally, I guess with the end of the Holocene, it is also the end of stable weather conditions

[Sigmetnow]

The Scariest Part of This Season’s Weird Weather Is Coming Soon
Tornadoes, floods, and a heat wave at the North Pole.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/12/the_storm_that_caused_tornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.2.html

[pikaia]

Wendy house blown over as Storm Frank rips through Plymouth.

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Wendy-house-blown-Storm-Frank-rips-Plymouth/story-28439502-detail/story.html?%3F%3F556

 

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached Earth Surface Wind and TCW (total cloud water) and Surface Temperature, respectively, Maps projected for Jan 3 2015; it will be raining on the sea ice very close to the North Pole then, so it will be interesting to see how fast the sea ice retreats in this area in the middle of winter:

[AbruptSLR]

For what it is worth, the attached ClimateReanalyzer forecast of surface temperatures for today, Dec 30 2015, shows that the surface of the sea ice at the North Pole should be melting today:

[Sigmetnow]

As the waters rise in York, the canals of Venice run dry
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/as-the-waters-rise-in-york-the-canals-of-venice-run-dry-a6788576.html

Video: http://www.nbcnews.com/video/freak-low-water-levels-in-venice-italy-cause-problems-593347651990

[sidd]

Thans for the water content maps. Will be raining on south greenland soon, if not now.

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.: Mississippi River and others expected to make record crests, flooding towns around St. Louis
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/31/us/weather-river-flooding/index.html

[Sigmetnow]

Arctic Buoy temperature readings.

[Buddy]

I guess this is COUNTER to the thought of "hell freezing over"...

[Theta]

I guess this is COUNTER to the thought of "hell freezing over"...

But hey, at least there's more traffic here since the refereeze season DoD something exciting

[werther]

According to the Dutch weather service, KNMI, mean temp December 2015 beat the former warmest Dec month, 1974, with a stunning margin of 2,2 dC (on a record dating back to the year 1706) . It produced a mean temp even higher than that common during spring month April.
PS I welcomed the first flowering hyacinths in my garden today. Famous bulb garden Keukenhof might be a mess this coming spring!

[Sigmetnow]

Freakish weather from the North Pole to South America

Thousands of miles south, in the center of Latin America, downpours fueled by the Pacific Ocean’s giant El Niño pattern have drenched regions of Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.

In what’s described as the worst flooding in a half-century, more than 160,000 people have fled their homes. The Paraguay River in that nation is within inches of topping its banks, and the Uruguay River in Argentina is 46 feet above normal, according to a BBC News report.
...
Yet after decades of studying and analyzing global weather extremes, [Dr. Jeff] Masters thinks the shift is obvious. “This isn’t the climate I grew up with,” he said. “We didn’t see this kind of weather in the 20th century. It’s just a continuation of the crazy weather we’ve seen over the course of the 21st century so far.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/freakish-weather-runs-from-top-of-the-world-to-the-bottom/2015/12/30/61203efa-af2c-11e5-b711-1998289ffcea_story.html

[Sigmetnow]

In the U.S.:

December's second long and record-shattering mild spell, which peaked during Christmas Week, helped numerous cities shatter their record warmest December.

More than 2,000 record daily highs and more than 2,000 record-warm daily lows were tied or broken during the final nine days of 2015, beginning Dec. 23. Despite being just a few days past the winter solstice, dozens of all-time December record highs were set, and more than 200 record-warm lows for any December day were also tied or broken.

Coupled with another prominent warm spell prior to Christmas week, hundreds of cities from the Plains to the East Coast shattered their warmest December on record.

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/christmas-week-forecast-warm-east


The warmest Christmas Eve the East Coast has ever seen is shattering records
http://mashable.com/2015/12/24/record-warm-christmas-temp-tracker/

[Sigmetnow]

New York Metro Weather gives a technical discussion of the massive change about to happen in the NH atmosphere, as the arctic cold currently bottled up near the pole faces a major disruption.

Thousands of miles away, forecast models are in great agreement that over the next few days, a tremendously anomalous ridge will develop through the Kara Sea. This ridge will quickly become the most dominant feature on the globe, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. It’s strength and presence will change the global circulations around it — and also force a disruption to the lower levels of the stratosphere.

Research on height records in the Kara sea during the months of December, January, and February shows that the GEFS are forecasting this ridge to be the strongest ever during this time period — by a fairly wide margin. Only a few years come remotely close to the strength of the forecasted ridge and heights in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This ridge will be a catalyst in setting off changes to the mid level atmospheric pattern.

As it develops, it will push northwestward toward the higher latitudes near the Pole, aiding in the development of some high latitude blocking. When juxtaposed with a ridge on the Western part of North America (which we will discuss shortly) it helps disrupt the polar vortex which had previously, for much of December, been quite stout and centralized.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/

[Sigmetnow]

Markedly anomalous....

Anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 daily base period means. (See key on right side of image.)
Current 30-day loop:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

[AbruptSLR]

The first DMI plot of temperatures north of 80 degrees north show that thru Dec 31 2015 Arctic temperatures have been anomalously high.

The second CCI-Reanalyzer 5-day forecast for the Arctic issued Jan 2, 2016, indicates that Arctic temperatures should remain anomalously high for another 5-days.

[AbruptSLR]

If their forecast holds, then the two attached images by the nullschool of the Earth 1000-hPa Wind and TCW (total cloud water), and Temperature (note green is above freezing), maps, respectively; indicate that rain could possibly occur in southern Greenland on January 7 2016, in the middle of the NH winter.

[jdallen]

New York Metro Weather gives a technical discussion of the massive change about to happen in the NH atmosphere, as the arctic cold currently bottled up near the pole faces a major disruption.

Thousands of miles away, forecast models are in great agreement that over the next few days, a tremendously anomalous ridge will develop through the Kara Sea. This ridge will quickly become the most dominant feature on the globe, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. It’s strength and presence will change the global circulations around it — and also force a disruption to the lower levels of the stratosphere.

Research on height records in the Kara sea during the months of December, January, and February shows that the GEFS are forecasting this ridge to be the strongest ever during this time period — by a fairly wide margin. Only a few years come remotely close to the strength of the forecasted ridge and heights in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This ridge will be a catalyst in setting off changes to the mid level atmospheric pattern.

As it develops, it will push northwestward toward the higher latitudes near the Pole, aiding in the development of some high latitude blocking. When juxtaposed with a ridge on the Western part of North America (which we will discuss shortly) it helps disrupt the polar vortex which had previously, for much of December, been quite stout and centralized.

I'm not seeing evidence of this... YET, but will keep an eye out for it.

[AbruptSLR]

Many of my recent posts in this thread have focused on the extremely high weather related temperatures in the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic; see also the following two linked articles discuss possible links between the current strong El Nino and the North Atlantic extreme weather:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/04/climate-change-and-el-nino-locked-in-tempestuous-embrace-teleconnection-between-hot-equatorial-pacific-and-north-atlantic-cool-pool/

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/uk-floods-and-extreme-global-weather-linked-to-el-nino-and-climate-change

However, the attached Nullschool Earth 1000-hPa Wind & Temperature forecast for Jan 8 2016 indicates that the strong El Nino event is also advecting large amounts of atmospheric heat to the coastal areas of the West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula (note that green indicates above freezing temperatures at 1000-hPa elevation [near the surface], which will result in surface ice melt, which is unusual even in the austral summer):

[Sigmetnow]

Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

[magnamentis]

Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

something must be wrong with this map because the anomalies show i.e. -23C whereas the forecast temps for friday for that (and all other ) regions on this map rather correspond with the numbers show as anomalies. so if the temp is for example -23 it cannot be 23C below normal because by no means is the normal january temp in finland 0C.  to me the temps shown as anomalies seem to be totally normal while daily anomalies do not have much meaning since daily temps are mostly due to weather patterns and come in go within days or even hours.

[Sigmetnow]

Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

something must be wrong with this map because the anomalies show i.e. -23C whereas the forecast temps for friday for that (and all other ) regions on this map rather correspond with the numbers show as anomalies. so if the temp is for example -23 it cannot be 23C below normal because by no means is the normal january temp in finland 0C.  to me the temps shown as anomalies seem to be totally normal while daily anomalies do not have much meaning since daily temps are mostly due to weather patterns and come in go within days or even hours.

The map shows the difference between the forecast average temperature and the historical average temperature. 

For example, I found a forecast average temperature for Helsinki, Finland for Friday of about -14°C.  Whereas the historical average temperature for Helsinki for January 8 is about -3°C.  The forecast abnormality is thus about 11°C lower than normal, or -11°C.

Looking at Madrid, Spain:  Forecast for Friday is about 11°C, whereas the normal would be about 5°C.  A forecast of a 6° abnormality in the warmer (positive) direction, or +6°, indicated on the map by orange colors.

The temperature data I found with a quick Google search may not match the map data exactly, but the trend shown is the same. 


You are correct that this is only one day's weather.  However, this abnormality is noteworthy because, as modeled, the degree of expected temperature variance is so unusual and unexpected that it is "off the scale."  Climate Reanalyzer 5-day average also shows an extremely cold temperature anomaly (departure from average) in Scandinavia -- about as cold a departure from average as the map can show....

[magnamentis]

Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

something must be wrong with this map because the anomalies show i.e. -23C whereas the forecast temps for friday for that (and all other ) regions on this map rather correspond with the numbers show as anomalies. so if the temp is for example -23 it cannot be 23C below normal because by no means is the normal january temp in finland 0C.  to me the temps shown as anomalies seem to be totally normal while daily anomalies do not have much meaning since daily temps are mostly due to weather patterns and come in go within days or even hours.

The map shows the difference between the forecast average temperature and the historical average temperature. 

For example, I found a forecast average temperature for Helsinki, Finland for Friday of about -14°C.  Whereas the historical average temperature for Helsinki for January 8 is about -3°C.  The forecast abnormality is thus about 11°C lower than normal, or -11°C.

Looking at Madrid, Spain:  Forecast for Friday is about 11°C, whereas the normal would be about 5°C.  A forecast of a 6° abnormality in the warmer (positive) direction, or +6°, indicated on the map by orange colors.

The temperature data I found with a quick Google search may not match the map data exactly, but the trend shown is the same. 


You are correct that this is only one day's weather.  However, this abnormality is noteworthy because, as modeled, the degree of expected temperature variance is so unusual and unexpected that it is "off the scale."  Climate Reanalyzer 5-day average also shows an extremely cold temperature anomaly (departure from average) in Scandinavia -- about as cold a departure from average as the map can show....

i see what you mean only that i consider this totally normal, that map which i check every day has always colder than normal spots and warmer than normal spots around the globe and pink spots are always the find as are the red spots while the above normal spots or areas autnumber the others. however if you just meant that it's below average over scandinavia that's correct for the next 5 days and after that the pink spot will shift elsewhere as usual :-) what i'm trying to say is that i can post every day an image with pink spots and thus far did not consider this something special. all good.

[Sleepy]

Sigmetnow, magnamentis.

I've been following the ensemble runs for Stockholm the last two winters, during January and February there have been a disturbing pattern. It usually gets warmer than forecasted.

This drop is unusual in the other direction, it wasn't forecasted at all in the earlier runs. I'll attach a small pic from the day before christmas.

Second pic is from today, showing an unsecure forecast and higher temperatures in a couple of days. The ensemble members starts to split already on the 9:th. No clear conclusions to make from these.

I'll also add the December anomalies from SMHI and the first five days in January. January has a long way to go to compensate for December.

[Sleepy]

Here's the anomalies for the 6:th. Climatology 1961-1990.
Maybe we should just change the steps to two degrees...

[magnamentis]

nice contribution, thanks, very much appreciated.

perhaps my english is not good enough to express better but i did not want to deny the anomaly but think that
local anomalies happen intermittently at all times across the globe, more so of course where temp ranges are higher and less so where they're smaller like at the equator for example. still this is very interesting and will have a further look at the past, whether such outliers are really that rare in one or another place or if it happens regulary, even though not always in the same places, depending on general whether patterns that are individual for each year. once the coldest spot is over the baltic and another year can be over north sweden. my impression was that it happens each year somewhere.

[Sleepy]

magnamentis, you can start here and especially that link to those papers in the first post about ENSO effects in Europe.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.0.html
Scandinavia normally sees drier and colder weather shortly after a large El Nino. But the effects are not clear since we are affected by a number of other weather patterns, but they are there.

[magnamentis]

thanks for the link, will look into right now 

[jdallen]

NOAA is following a sub-tropical low, which, in mid January, is creating massive circulation and near hurricane force winds.

Now watch as it drags that massive blob of heat along and gets pin-balled into the central Arctic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[AbruptSLR]

Weird weather cause $25 billion is loses in 2015:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/04/insurers-paid-out-26-billion-dollars-natural-disaster-claims-

Extract: "Insurers paid out $27bn for natural disaster claims in 2015.

Weather caused 94% of catastrophes including storms, floods and earthquakes last year, according to data from reinsurer Munich Re."

[Buddy]

Weather caused 94% of catastrophes including storms, floods and earthquakes last year, according to data from reinsurer Munich Re."

It's a good thing there isn't any economic cost to global warming...

[JimD]

To supplement jdallen's post above.

Tropical Storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific during January. It could happen this week. And it’s all due to this new Anthropocene weather we’re now experiencing....

Pali — Earliest Tropical Cyclone to have Ever Formed in Central Pacific

Pali, in particular, is an unusual beast. According to Weather Underground, as of early this morning Pali was whipping up 65 mile per hour winds and rough surf along a broad region of water some 1350 miles southeast of Hawaii. Pali spun up out of a westerly wind burst and storm pattern associated with the monster El Nino now going off in the Pacific....

30 Percent Chance of Tropical Cyclone Development in the Atlantic During January

As if Pali and this ramping trend of off-season tropical cyclone formation in the Pacific weren’t enough to put an exclamation point after the sentence — tropical storms are forming earlier than they used to — we have a concordant potential tropical cyclone development happening at the same time in the Atlantic. A weird storm is taking on extra-tropical characteristics off the US East Coast. Already packing gale-force winds in the range of 60-65 miles per hour, this odd system now has the potential to become a warm-core, tropical low as it moves eastward toward the Azores....

http://robertscribbler.com/

[mati]

blame it all on china
RIP David

[Jim Hunt]

To supplement jdallen's post above.

My own thoughts on the extraordinarily early start to the hurricane season:

http://econnexus.org/pali-in-early-start-to-2016-pacific-cyclone-season/

The NHC now say that in the North Atlantic there's a:

50% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

Here's Pali via Suomi last night:

[Jim Hunt]

Pali in the Pacific has just been joined by Alex in the Atlantic:

http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/

The Azores might be in the firing line of the "subtropical storm"

[Sigmetnow]

By Dr. Jeff Masters.

Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific

As we ring in the New Year with record to near-record warm temperatures over much of Earth's oceans, we are confronted with something that would have been unimaginable a few decades ago: simultaneous January named storms in both the Atlantic and Central Pacific.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unprecedented-simultaneous-january-named-storms-in-the-atlantic-and-c

[Tor Bejnar]

now [edit: almost] simultaneous January hurricanes!  (Apparently, Alex is 2nd known Atlantic Basin January hurricane ever.) Related link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
[edit: Pali has been downgraded]

[AbruptSLR]

now [edit: almost] simultaneous January hurricanes!  (Apparently, Alex is 2nd known Atlantic Basin January hurricane ever.) Related link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
[edit: Pali has been downgraded]

The Washington Post linked article provides more background about Alex:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/13/its-january-and-a-tropical-storm-has-formed-in-the-atlantic-ocean/

[opensheart]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alex-becomes-the-atlantics-first-january-hurricane-since-1955

85 MPH winds

so Alex is officially the strongest January hurricane on record in the Atlantic.

[Jim Hunt]

The NHC have just issued an interim bulletin about Hurricane Alex:

http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/#comment-492638

The view from Terra today:

[Sleepy]

One important part, as noted in those links above and by other meteorologists, is the unusually cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere above Alex.

El Nino normally dampens the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Another unusual correlation is that during Alice in 1955 (Dec -54 to Jan -55), we also had a declining El Nino, allthough weak.

Temperature contrasts upwards are increasing and that is thanks to AGW. It will not be a pleasant future in a warming world, as deniers often express.

Temperatures over the Arctic are going strong.

[Jim Hunt]

One important part, as noted in those links above and by other meteorologists, is the unusually cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere above Alex.

Deniers from the Cato Institute claim the cold temperatures aloft prove that the by now ex Hurricane Alex is nothing to do with global warming:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/688131411660783617

Meanwhile the UK Met Office forecast that:

[Alex] is heading up towards Greenland in fact. But this ex hurricane, what that’s doing is adding extra energy into the jet stream which is the driving force of our weather at the moment. That in turn is adding extra complications to the computer models that generate the forecast for the weather here across the UK…..

[seaicesailor]

One important part, as noted in those links above and by other meteorologists, is the unusually cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere above Alex.

Deniers from the Cato Institute claim the cold temperatures aloft prove that the by now ex Hurricane Alex is nothing to do with global warming:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/688131411660783617

Meanwhile the UK Met Office forecast that:

[Alex] is heading up towards Greenland in fact. But this ex hurricane, what that’s doing is adding extra energy into the jet stream which is the driving force of our weather at the moment. That in turn is adding extra complications to the computer models that generate the forecast for the weather here across the UK…..

Yeah that has to be it, the strongest tropical cyclone recorded ever two months ago, record temps for weeks in parts of North America, Europe and Asia, (not to mention the Pacific and Indian oceans), a hurricane in January that doesn"t come precisely every other year, oh that weird front that spun tornadoes in Texas, then grew exposively as a storm in Iceland, while another cyclone in the Actic was sucking above-zero temp. air...
Blame it to the cooling of the upper atmosphere.

How long this extremely whacked-out state of weather at global level (not saying climate here) will last?? Till el Niño dissipates or beyond? Cause it starts to look pretty apocalyptic to me.

[Sleepy]

El Nino effects normally materializes during Jamuary-March. The present El Nino is strengthening right now, so who knows?

Deniers last refuge will be space.

We-re having wild temperature swings here now. The same goes for the entire nation, yesterday we broke the color scale at both ends, on the same day.

[AbruptSLR]

The linked open access pdf addresses 2014 Extreme Weather Events from a climate change point of view.  As the report is long, I will leave it to those who are interested to look at the pdf.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1

[Sleepy]

That was long, and interesting. Just had a quick look and Table 34.1 at the end might be useful to post separately?

[Sigmetnow]

I post this now to explain the hysteria developing on the U.S. east coast.  Bits of weather energy now over the Pacific are forecast to come together and wallop the Atlantic coastal states with a mega snowstorm this weekend.  Some areas could see 3 feet of snow -- and that's before the blowing and drifting.

Eric Holthaus: What’s amazing, perhaps even more so than the impressive potential snow totals, is that all the major weather models are already locked in.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/689445668247613442

- This could be the first storm in 13 years to dump a foot of snow on the entire Northeast megalopolis.
- This storm could knock out power to hundreds of thousands of people.
- Coastal flooding could become a serious problem.
http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/five-things-to-know-east-coast-snowstorm

National Weather Service, Philadelphia/New Jersey region:
Coastal Flooding: With the strong on shore flow, and a full moon on Saturday, coastal flooding is currently likely, potentially moderate to major.  Tidal departures could reach three feet with the early morning high tide on Saturday.
http://ow.ly/d/4elx

[Jim Hunt]

I post this now to explain the hysteria developing on the U.S. east coast.  Bits of weather energy now over the Pacific are forecast to come together and wallop the Atlantic coastal states

The relevance may not seem immediately apparent, but see also my surf forecast for Greenland:

Two Pairs of Hurricane Force Storms

The Ocean Prediction Center of the United States' National Weather Service highlighted this unusual situation on their Twitter feed yesterday - Four hurricane force lows in the two ocean basins within the next 24 hours!

[Sleepy]

A picture from EarthWindMap showing 850mb and mslp for tomorrow. Poor Greenland.