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sark

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Hurricane Season 2019
« on: February 17, 2019, 09:58:08 PM »
North of the ITCZ, February 18th, 2019.  250 miles from Micronesia, Invest 92W is organizing and has been upgraded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center to Medium confidence of development.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

GFS has been showing this system growing to Cat 4-5 and then blowing north as an extratropical cyclone, right up the Bering Strait and into the Arctic.

We watched the last hurricane of the season, Oscar, turned out to sea in the Atlantic and then straight into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  Oscar entered the Arctic around November 1, and within days the stratospheric polar vortex began to ping pong around, a displacement which culminated in the polar vortex split and wild winter weather we are still experiencing.

It's a similar set up.  A calm, organized polar vortex at the north pole.  Incoming tropical storm.

Is it too much to anticipate, two major polar vortex disruptions in one winter?

Standard disclaimers:  GFS long range, ECMWF forecasts it much weaker, although it strengthened in the last run.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 12:10:41 AM by sark »
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sark

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2019, 09:46:30 PM »
Invest 92W is now known as Wutip

https://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1902.html
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Alexander555

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2019, 10:01:06 PM »

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2019, 11:20:18 PM »
Wutip has winds about 155 mph (1-min mean) now.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2019, 10:18:07 AM »
Quote
02W WUTIP
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 25, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 140.2°E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb
Source.
Category 5 in February!

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2019, 08:58:02 PM »
WOW!

I know I have my ideas about China reducing its dimming impacts across the Pacific but surely not to the point of us seeing cat 5's in Feb!!!
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2019, 06:10:32 PM »
Intense tropical cyclone Idai in the south-west Indian Ocean. EOSDIS Worldview. 40 deaths after the first landfall in Africa and it is going to make second.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2019, 09:00:21 PM »
Idai has a large eye, 70 km. One day before landfall.
Source.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2019, 02:29:40 AM »
Cyclone Idai: Mozambique braces for 'worst-case scenario' storm   
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47576831

People living in one of Mozambique's largest cities have been warned to expect the "worst-case scenario" as a major cyclone makes landfall.

Cyclone Idai, which is carrying winds of up to 225 km/h (140 mph), is making landfall near the port of Beira.

A storm surge of at least six metres (20 feet) is expected near low-lying Beira, a city of 500,000 people, Météo France said.

The surge could be even higher because of high tide, Météo France warned.

Heavy rains have already killed about 100 people in Mozambique and Malawi.

Beira is the fourth largest city in Mozambique and its major port sits on the mouth of the Pungwe river, that runs to Zimbabwe.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2019, 02:40:23 AM »
Cyclone Idai: More than 1,000 Feared Dead in Mozambique
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/18/cyclone-idai-death-toll-climbs-over-120-in-mozambique-and-zimbabwe

... President Filipe Nyusi told Mozambican radio he had seen “many bodies” floating in the overflowing Pungwe and Busi rivers. “It appears that we can register more than 1,000 deaths,” he said, adding that more than 100,000 people were at risk because of severe flooding.

... “The situation is terrible. The scale of devastation is enormous. It seems that 90 per cent of the area is completely destroyed,” said Jamie LeSueur of the Red Cross. “We are also hearing that the situation outside the city could be even worse. Yesterday, a large dam burst and cut off the last road to the city.”

... The cyclone will have far-reaching consequences beyond the flooding. Farmers in the region were about to harvest their maize crop when Idai hit, and many of their fields have been ruined, meaning widespread hunger in at least the year ahead.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2019, 03:31:01 PM »
Cyclone Idai: Huge Area of Mozambique Submerged   
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-47624156

An aerial survey of Mozambique's cyclone-hit province shows that a 50km (30 mile) stretch of land is under water, charity Save The Children says.

The flooding was caused after River Buzi burst its banks, it adds.   


Buzi town, which is estimated to be home to more than 2,500 children, could be under water within 24 hours, Save The Children warned.

... Floods of up to six metres deep had caused "incredible devastation" over a huge area in Mozambique, World Food Programme regional chief Lola Castro said.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« Reply #12 on: Today at 01:36:23 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late