PIOMAS 2021 ASI Volume September Average: August poll

[Juan C. García]

Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year       Volume
          (10^3 km3)
2000       11.08
2001       12.28
2002       10.85
2003       10.28
2004       10.04
2005         9.28
2006         9.11
2007         6.53
2008         7.25
2009         6.92
2010         4.74
2011         4.48
2012         3.79
2013         5.48
2014         6.97
2015         5.85
2016         4.53
2017         4.68
2018         5.08
2019         4.19
2020         4.16

From lowest to highest:

[icefisher]

Expecting a 6th place finish at 4.69.

[Brigantine]

links to poll threads:
Month - PIOMAS / NSIDC / JAXA
June ___ link ____ link ____ link
July ____ link ____ link ____ link
August - N/A ____ link ____ link

[Brigantine]

Because I don't know any better, just copying the transformation I did to JAXA, with a bit more uncertainty:
I take my June prediction as an anchor, slide up 1.5 bins, and squash the spread into 3/5 the width.

4.50 - 5.00

Assumed bin chances: (>5.50) 3%; 4%; 9%; 30%; 34%; 12%; 4%; 2%; 1%; 1%; 0%; 0% (<3.00)

[Stephan]

Like the other two polls I decided to choose one bin higher (4.25-4.75 k km³).

[KenB]

I'm sticking with my July bins for all three polls.

[Brigantine]

Because I don't know any better, just copying the transformation I did to JAXA, with a bit more uncertainty:
I take my June prediction as an anchor, slide up 1.5 bins, and squash the spread into 3/5 the width.
4.50 - 5.00
Assumed bin chances: (>5.50) 3%; 4%; 9%; 30%; 34%; 12%; 4%; 2%; 1%; 1%; 0%; 0% (<3.00)

Moving back down to 4.25 - 4.75 after all. (1 bin above June prediction)

Assumed bin chances: (>5.50) 2%; 3%; 5%; 18%; 37%; 22%; 7%; 3%; 2%; 1%; 0%; 0% (<3.00)

[Juan C. García]

Moving to the range 4.5 - 5.0 km³.

19 hours to vote or change your vote...   

[gerontocrat]

I am basing my vote on my projection of the September monthly average based on the 10 year average of further volume losses (and gains  in late September)from 31 July to 30 September.

The September Monthly average comes in at 4.39 thousand km3, some 367km3 above the long-term linear trend, and 223 km3 above the Sept 2020 average. (see attached)

So my vote is 4.00 to 4.50 thousand km3.

[Freegrass]

Moving to the range 4.5 - 5.0 km³.

19 hours to vote or change your vote...   

I'm gonna stick with my lonely vote of between 5.00 and 5.50... 4.99 will still be good, no? 

4.75 to 5.25 would probably be a smarter/safer choice, but I don't like to share my bet... 

[oren]

Upping one bin to 4.00-4.50, the year has been rather slow and it's hard to lose a lot of volume with relatively high area and without major weather (nonstop sunshine or great storms).

[Brigantine]

31st of August [...] Volume calculated from thickness on that day was 4.7[1000km³]

how does that Aug 31 figure normally compare with Sept average? Will the Sept average be ever so slightly lower?

[Sepp]

The September average is usually a bit more than 1M below August average, which would result around 4.5. But I do not think previous years give good hints for single outcomes.

[Brigantine]

Looks like 4.75 - 5.00 is the winner. Congrats to those 6 voters.

I voted 4.25 - 4.75, and we get 4.76... So close! (I still gave 4.75 - 5.00 an 18% chance)

I hope that everything is fine with Wipneus...
I think it is the first time that he doesn't update the PIOMAS charts and data.

September 2021 Monthly Update

Average Arctic sea ice volume in September 2021 was 4,760 km3

[Juan C. García]

Moving to the range 4.5 - 5.0 km³.

Only one vote on target. It is OK. 
2021 a clear rebound year.

And now 2500 posts. I am now "Young ice"